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Zimbabwe Briefing - Issue 83
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition (SA Regional Office)
July 18, 2012

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Supreme Court Ruling and Violence to Spin Zimbabwe Out of Control

The Zimbabwe Supreme court ruled last week that President Robert Mugabe must call for elections in three constituencies in Matabeleland. This is after the dismissal of the three legislators by their party, the smaller MDC led by Welshman Ncube for defecting to the mainstream MDC party led by Morgan Tsvangirai. The Government of National Unity, in the hope of preserving peace, had put a moratorium on elections and so far Zimbabwe has more than 20 vacant parliamentary and senatorial seats owing to deaths and dismissals.

While the Supreme Court judgement was still being digested, MDC-T was under siege when more than 120 armed soldiers and hundreds of ZANU PF supporters besieged the party's Secretary General and Finance Minister Tendai Biti disrupting a rally planned for Darwendale a farming community outside Harare. The two events, distant from each other as they appear, however speak to the challenges facing the country in the next few weeks. This after the Supreme Court said elections must be held in the three constituencies and by inference in all other vacant constituencies by 31 August 2012. This gives the political leadership at least 5 weeks to prepare for the elections, that is look for the money and jolt the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission into action.

The ZANU PF side of the GNU has already declared, "when a defeat tests so sweet" in reference to the Supreme Court ruling. In other words ZANU PF feels vindicated by the ruling which not only speaks to its [ZANU PF] call for an early election but also supports the argument that the GNU is subverting the right of people to democratically elect their preferred political leadership. ZANU PF's is savouring this ruling which on paper is a loss to Mugabe but politically a boost to a demand for an election by the same person. This, in other words is a ruling out of time owing to the changed political circumstances in the country. The issue is that President Mugabe will be under pressure from the hawks in his party and security sector to hold the elections in the three constituencies as proof that Zimbabwe is indeed ready for an election.

ZANU PF is also likely to argue that it makes no sense to hold elections in three constituencies and rather elections should be held in all constituencies including for the Presidency. It is in rare moments in life when Supreme Court rulings fit so squarely with political plans of the dominant political party. Resources will be stampeded from secret diamonds slash funds controlled by the military and intelligence to facilitate the holding of elections in the three constituencies or whole country under the old Lancaster House constitution. ZANU PF now has more ammunition in its armour to call for the speedy finalisation of the new constitution or a return to the old constitutional order.

ZANU PF will again pour its ill-gotten resources [in this drought year] to buy-votes and intimidate opponents and "win" the by elections as way of boosting its supports base and mobilise its supporters and structures.

The Supreme Court ruling is a serious test case for the political leadership as it leaves little if any time for manoeuvre by the leadership without falling foul of the law or ruling. This brings us to the other issue in this whole conundrum, the events in Darwendale over the weekend. It apparently took the intervention, not of the MDC Co-Home Affairs Minister Theresa Makone, but the Defence Minister and ZANU PF s legal Affairs Secretary Emmerson Mngangwa and Intelligence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi to have the soldiers fall back to wherever they came from. This is despite the fact that the MDC-T rally had been cleared by the police and a senior member, Tendai Biti, was addressing the same rally. Soldiers and ZANU PF supporters were heard clearly shouting that the MDC was not welcome in that area and will not be allowed to carry out any political activity. The soldiers and the ZANU PF supporters destroyed MDC posters and pulled down the stage set in the stadium for the rally. Mind you these were not senior army officers but junior rank soldiers who are however thoroughly brainwashed and will take whatever instruction. This refutes the often peddled untruth that junior soldiers are professional and will not accept to be used by the seniors. This notion is a fallacy and need to be dismissed by any right thinking Zimbabwean as evidence on the ground clearly shows that the junior ranks are as equally brainwashed as the Generals.

There might be one or two professional soldiers but in numbers they won't make much difference. Interestingly the MDC party supporters made a beeline to the nearest police station to report the assaults by ZANU PF supporters and soldiers. The police not only stated their own fear of the soldiers but went on to arrest two MDC supporters on allegations of assault. Tendai Biti made the mistake of emotionally declaring that his party will retaliate if attacked. This statement has been noted and will come back to haunt the MDC party. First the party has no capacity to fight a professional army and secondly the party should promote peace even under intense provocation. This is the message that Biti and team need to be aware of and that any reckless statement will be used by ZANU PF to justify, and instigate more violence against the MDC supporters. The next few weeks are going to be full of drama and interesting as we wait to see how the political leadership reacts to this crisis. The Supreme Court ruling might as well result in Zimbabwe spinning out of control yet again.

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