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Zimbabwe Briefing - Issue 75
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition (SA Regional Office)
May 24, 2012

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It's All Within Your Power Mr President

Last week Zimbabweans were given a rare insight into President Robert Mugabe's political thinking after he met a long-time ally and rival former Defence Minister Enos Nkala. Nkala now in his 80s is retired having been fired from government and ZANU PF for buying vehicles corruptly in the 1980s. It was in Nkala's home that ZANU PF was formed in the 1960s and Nkala played a key role in ensuring that Mugabe rose to the leadership of ZANU PF. Late in his life he maintains a grudge for the manner of his dismissal from ZANU PF and the fact that Mugabe virtually turned a cold shoulder to him. Last week the two octogenarians met in Bulawayo as Mugabe was on his way to Gwanda on government business. In 2012 Nkala has afforded the people of Zimbabwe an opportunity to understand Mugabe in light of ensuing political events in Zimbabwe. According to Nkala Mugabe is afraid and concerned that ZANU PF is disintegrating and that his departure will see the party falling apart and civil strife erupting. Nkala also says Mugabe is the glue holding Zimbabwe and ZANU PF together and we all need to be careful when we shout that Mugabe must go. The reasons why Mugabe went to see Nkala are subject to speculation, but one cannot rule out that Mugabe is missing the old company and wanted someone to genuinely talk to about his fears.

The discussion that Mugabe had with Nkala is interesting as it gives us an insight into the thinking of the President, a rarity, away from the spin-doctoring that we get from his Press Office. It is interesting that the fear that President Mugabe has, is shared by almost all Zimbabweans including this writer. The difference is that President Mugabe is now peddling this fear as if he is a victim, like all of us, that he alone is the solution to this fear hence blackmailing us to support him. A key concern expressed by Mugabe in his meeting with Nkala is that he appears to be losing grip of the levers of power and control both in his party and state. In other words there are some forces that Mugabe is afraid of and who are usurping his powers, unfortunately he is beholden to the same forces for keeping him in power. In unpacking the Nkala/Mugabe meeting, we need to remind President Mugabe that the total sum of all his fears, be it the disintegration of ZANU PF and the possibility of civil strife are all consequences of his making. What happens in ZANU PF might not necessarily concern us as that is a voluntary organisation and its existence or disintegration should be the concern of its members. However the goings on in ZANU PF are now tied to the fate of Zimbabwe, as a result of the meshing of the party and the state. In this regard Mr Nkala says the military, intelligence, police and the senior civil service are all ZANU PF as they come from the liberation movement. Here in lies the problem with the internal strife in ZANU PF and the possibility of civil war in Zimbabwe. First President Mugabe politicised the whole civil service to serve ZANU PF. This means that the civil service and state security institutions are not prepared to serve the people of Zimbabwe but ZANU PF.

Secondly President Mugabe is conveniently using the security sector to promote ZANU PF and his political interests. In other words President Mugabe no longer believes in his political persuasive skills or vision to win the hearts and minds of the people of Zimbabwe hence a reliance on coercive state power. Thirdly President Mugabe is afraid of a civil war that is certainly not between the MDC parties but amongst rival ZANU PF factions. The MDC parties have no capacity on earth to launch any aggression against ZANU PF. On the contrary it is ZANU PF factions in their varying formations that are armed to the teeth. These are the military hawks and their political fronts in ZANU PF, the intelligence said to support other factions, a police that prevaricate in and out of the factions. These groups and the collapsing ZANU PF are the forces that have the capacity to cause chaos in Zimbabwe. Mr Nkala made an interesting statement that others have said before that President Mugabe is needed now, in my view, not necessarily to continue in power but to sort out the mess that he has created. President Mugabe's fears are the height of hypocrisy and selfishness as he well knows that in a decade of so, he might as well not be around, yet Zimbabwe might be burning. He has the duty therefore to dismantle the structures of coercion that he has created especially the immense power that he has granted the security sector. It will take the stroke of a pen to send into retirement the Senior Army officers who are daily threatening the people of Zimbabwe. They are many professional security men and women in Zimbabwe who can assume leadership and take the security sector back to its democratic role.

When all is said and done, President Mugabe all but confirmed the dire need for security sector reform. The President is disingenuously using the fear factor to maintain his hold on power. For civil society this is clearly another demonstration of the need to intensify regional advocacy. It might as well be that citizens of Zimbabwe will, in the next few months, not have any power to play any meaningful role in determining the future as the military takes over and President Mugabe shows determination to die in office. We can no longer trust the unity government and it's never ending negotiations to deliver peace. To me peace is now the desired goal. Yet after all is said and done the power remains with President Mugabe to remove this mess and save Zimbabwe.

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