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Key political risks to watch in Zimbabwe
Cris
Chinaka, Reuters
January 10, 2012
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFRISKZW20120110
A push by veteran
President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party for elections before the
end of the year has raised fears among Zimbabweans of a spike in
political violence that could derail a two-year economic recovery.
Tensions are
already high over the drafting of a new constitution that major
political parties must agree on before any parliamentary and presidential
polls.
Mugabe's advancing
years - he turns 88 in February - are causing additional concerns,
not least among ZANU-PF followers who fear that question marks over
his ability to do the job after 32 years in power may cost it in
any election.
That said, Mugabe's
main political rival, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, is facing
lurid allegations about his private life that have damaged his reputation
as leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
Inter-Party
Violence
Finance Minister
Tendai Biti is budgeting for economic growth of 9.4 percent this
year from 9.3 percent in 2011, but a fierce contest between Mugabe's
ZANU-PF party and the MDC could torpedo that.
Analysts say
Mugabe is pressing for polls a year ahead of schedule because of
his failing health.
He and Tsvangirai,
who were forced into a unity government after violent and disputed
polls in 2008, convened a peace summit in November to defuse
escalating tensions after clashes between their supporters.
Tsvangirai,
who is 18 years younger than Mugabe, believes he will win any free
and fair poll, after ZANU-PF intimidation forced him to drop out
of a presidential runoff against Mugabe in June 2008.
The acid test
for the anti-violence campaign is likely to come closer to the election
date, when ZANU-PF tends to mobilize its forces in the form of independence
war veterans and youth brigades known as "green bombers".
What to Watch:
- A rise in
inter-party violence as the drive for elections picks up steam.
- Public response
to calls for joint peace rallies planned by ZANU-PF and the MDC.
- Investors
shelving or slowing down on their plans due to jitters over election
violence or fear of instability.
Mugabe
Succession
ZANU-PF's annual
conference in December endorsed Mugabe as its candidate in the next
presidential poll, but analysts say he will face a tough battle
convincing voters to extend his rule.
Although ZANU-PF
officials rally behind Mugabe in public, in private many want him
to retire and pass the baton to a younger heir due to fears his
age may cost the party victory.
The pressure
has intensified since reports, based on a June 2008 U.S. diplomatic
cable released by WikiLeaks, that Mugabe is suffering from prostate
cancer.
The death of
retired general Solomon Mujuru in a fire in August has also changed
the party dynamics. Reports say Mujuru, husband of Vice President
Joice Mujuru, was pressing Mugabe to step down and that his ZANU-PF
faction had courted the MDC.
What to watch:
- Mugabe trying
to heal party rifts or anoint a successor.
- How Mujuru's
camp regroups, and how ZANU-PF rivals position themselves for
power after Mugabe.
Tsvangirai
Local media
reports in the past year said Tsvangirai has made two women pregnant
and tried to pay them off. He has so far not denied the charges.
The allegations
have provided fodder for his enemies and led some to question his
leadership credentials.
What to watch:
- MDC rifts
caused by the controversies
Mining
and Local Ownership
Indigenisation
and Economic Empowerment Minister Saviour Kasukuwere says mining
firms have mostly met deadlines for submitting plans on how to transfer
a 51 percent stake in their operations to locals.
Some foreign
mines with operations in Zimbabwe include Impala Platinum, Aquarius
and Rio Tinto , while British banks Barclays and Standard Chartered
Bank operate locally.
The heavily
criticised law is aimed mainly at mining firms and banks operating
in a resource-rich state that has become an economic basket case.
Analysts say
it is more likely the cash-strapped government wants to wring concessions
from miners such as more cash or mineral rights. This explains why
the government is negotiating with individual companies, the analysts
say.
In addition,
the government unveiled a $4 billion budget for 2012, which included
an increase in gold and platinum royalties for gold, and banked
on $600 million in diamond revenues.
What to watch:
- Details
of deals struck between government and miners.
- What the
government will do to non-complying companies.
Constitution
Mugabe and Tsvangirai's
parties are quarreling over drafting
of a new constitution, with ZANU-PF accusing the MDC of trying
to smuggle in a law recognising homosexuals and giving unfettered
voting rights to Zimbabweans living abroad.
The final charter
is likely to be a compromise between ZANU-PF and MDC, who both lack
the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to pass the new supreme
law on their own.
A referendum
on a draft not backed by either party would likely trigger violence.
Many Zimbabweans
want the charter to strengthen the role of parliament, curtail presidential
powers and guarantee civil, political and media liberties.
What to watch:
- ZANU-PF
reaction to prolonged delays in charter's crafting
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