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Zimbabwe: Risk analysis and scenario mapping for 2011
Idasa
March 07, 2011

http://www.idasa.org/media/uploads/outputs/files/sito_zim_risk_analysis_fina.pdf (Direct link to 7 page PDF)

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The 2008 Global Political Agreement (GPA) between Zanu PF and the two formations of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T and MDC-M) ushered in a power-sharing government and averted a complete political and economic collapse of the state. However, significant challenges, sharp disagreements and waning political will to enforce the agreement among the three principal parties have paralysed the inclusive government. Zimbabwe remains deeply polarised with the GPA teetering between collapse and continued stalemate.

The following analysis will examine four risk areas vital to Zimbabwe's transition: democracy and human rights; active citizenship; social and economic justice; and peace and conflict transformation. Finally, likely political scenarios, based on analysis and interviews, will be discussed.

Risk Area: Democracy and Human Rights

Zimbabwe is embroiled in a low-intensity conflict. The current power-sharing dispensation is untenable and has failed to achieve the desired and necessary institutional transformation that would ensure democratisation of the state.

South Africa is the guarantor of the GPA. Through shuttle diplomacy and pressure on the three principal parties, the Zuma presidency has kept the inclusive government from collapse. South Africa is pushing the principal parties to agree to an election "road map" that will pave the way for credible elections. Reforms to be included are the drafting and ratification of a new constitution and a revised and updated voters' roll, amongst others. Yet, major "unknowns" could derail the process, including an irascible President Robert Mugabe and an increasingly empowered and emboldened security sector.

The GPA mandated constitutional reform as part of a move towards elections for a new and legitimate government. The constitutional outreach process involved approximately 4,000 public meetings with 700,000 Zimbabweans. A range of reports acknowledged widespread intimidation and sporadic violence in this process with meetings in Harare and Bulawayo facing significant governmental interference. A new constitution "owned and driven" by the people is intended to not only deepen democratic values and principles, but limit executive influence and engender a political environment that is conducive to fairer competition and contains checks and balances. However, the final version of the constitution that should be put to a referendum is likely to be a negotiated document between the MDC and Zanu PF with the concerns of the people taking a back seat.

Violence and impunity are deeply ingrained within Zimbabwe's political history. The rule of law and human rights are not respected. Widespread political and economic instability and a lack of coordination and action by regional actors responsible for monitoring the implementation of the GPA have further hindered reform. The formerly independent judiciary is highly politicised and is no longer able to check or restrain governmental abuses of power. The courts have often upheld egregious legislation that significantly undermines basic human rights; for example, land seizures have been sanctioned and the denial of fair trials and illegal detentions of human rights defenders and journalists have been upheld. Some judicial decisions to rebuke the state, particularly those of the High Court, are not always enforced by the police or military, fostering a deep sense of defencelessness as there are no alternative means to seek justice.

Human rights defenders and political opposition continue to be threatened by arbitrary arrest and detention, disappearances and state-sponsored violence. Police generally employ considerable force and engage in torture. Increasing militarisation of public and private space is a worrying trend. Despite greater MDC oversight and international pressure, Zanu PF and the security sector have embarked on campaigns of intimidation and violence, targeting the general population, to entrench constant fear and uncertainty ahead of the imminent elections.

From a stakeholder perspective, the key threats to democracy and human rights include:

• State repression of political and economic opposition;
• Increasing militarisation of public and private space;
• Threats of political violence and intimidation;
• Insufficient electoral reforms;
• A prejudiced and ineffective judiciary and disregard for the rule of law;
• The inability of civil society to advocate for human rights;
• A lack of regional and international pressure and oversight to ensure compliance with the GPA

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