|
Back to Index
Crisis
in Zimbabwe: A long walk to freedom
International Socialist Organization of Zimbabwe
December 03, 2010
http://links.org.au/node/2024
Several
significant events in the political and constitutional framework
of Zimbabwe have occurred in recent months. First, are the controversies
surrounding the Constitutional Parliamentary Committee (COPAC) outreach
exercise carried out from June 2010 to date. Second is the crisis
in the Government
of National Unity (GNU) following various unilateral state executive
appointments by President Robert Gabriel Mugabe.
The GNU is facing
its biggest crisis since its inception, following the unilateral
reappointment of provincial governors and ambassadors by Mugabe.
This has been one of the main outstanding issues of the Global
Political Agreement (GPA), which was supposed to be resolved
by Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Afrcian
Union (AU), the guarantors of the GPA. Prime minister and Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC-T) president Morgan Tsvangirai responded
by declaring that he and his party did not recognise such appointments
but also others that Mugabe had unilaterally made in the last 18
months, including the appointments of the Reserve Bank governor,
attorney general, five High Court and Supreme Court judges and ambassadors
to the UN, Europe and South Africa. He has since written to these
various authorities formally informing them of his position. Mugabe
and the state media have ridiculed Tsvangirai, with Mugabe saying
this is why it was now mandatory to have elections by mid-2011 and
do away with the GNU, which has become an unbearable hindrance to
Mugabe.
The growing
arrogance of Mugabe and his party, the Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the crisis facing the GNU are
not surprising and we had predicted right from the inception of
the GPA in September 2008:
[The MDC-T
leaders'] primary preoccupation is towards reaching a sell-out
agreement with the ZANU-PF dictatorship that will not benefit
the poor and working people ... the opposition is dominated by
the petite-bourgeois elite, who long ago prostrated themselves
before western neoliberal forces and are now eager to get into
state power, even as junior partners, and accumulate as a neocolonial
dependent capitalist class...
On the other
hand Tsvangirai, supported by a duplicitous and largely cowardly
civic society, actively undermined any attempt at serious mass
action solely relying on Western sanctions. Not surprising they
have been forced into a deal which gives a desperate dictatorship
breathing space to renew itself, whilst laying the foundations
for massive long-term assaults on the living conditions of working
people. Make no mistake, despite the above concessions, the MDC
is the definite junior in this deal with very unclear chances
of success whilst the future of the deal itself is very uncertain...
... unlike
the Patriotic Front, the MDC has no real fallback position if
the deal collapses. Its only guarantor is a mediator who has now
been ousted. Having consistently neutralised the mass action route,
the MDC has solely relied on the Western sanctions. But MDC is
not in full control of this. Locked in a hotel room and virtually
coerced by [Thabo] Mbeki and Mugabe to sign there and then or
risk immediate collapse of the negotiations, Tsvangirai seems
to have signed a deal that does not meet the full approval of
his Western allies...
With economic
siege continuing, especially in an environment of global economic
crisis, the deal looks very fragile and may unravel sooner rather
than later. Popular acceptance of such an expensive and over-bloated
coalition government, proportionately the biggest in the world
in a country with the world's highest inflation, is likely
to wane rapidly if the promised economic recovery fails to take
place, with the draft national constitution a possible flash point.
At such stage Mugabe's continued control of the security
apparatus, the state and treasury will be decisive and the opposition's
nakedness and foolishness in signing such deal exposed. -- Socialist
Worker (Zimbabwe), January 2009.
The above prediction
has indeed come to pass. The GNU saved the ZANU-PF dictatorship
from an impending social, economic and political implosion as foreshadowed
by collapsing public utilities and rioting junior soldiers. The
hyper-inflation dragon was tamed and Zimbabwe's international
isolation largely removed. Tsvangirai went the world over preaching,
as recently as September 2010 in an interview with South Africa's
E-News, about how Mugabe had reformed, was a well-meaning statesman
worried about his legacy and so forth. He has now turned and is
bleating a different song!
We now in fact
seem to be reaching the point predicted when Mugabe, no longer needing
the GNU, would flex his muscles and wee on the GNU. With a fairly
stabilised economy and Tsvangirai having demobilised and confused
his supporters, the hardliners in the Mugabe regime are now again
on the ascendancy and clearly on the offensive, using the constitutional
question as the launch pad. Mugabe has now called for elections,
saying the GNU has become intolerable for him and his ZANU-PF. Prime
Minister Tsvangirai has also told his supporters to prepare for
elections in 2011, although he is insisting that these will be under
a new constitution. Although Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara
has said this is grandstanding, events in the last few weeks show
that the momentum for elections might be gathering its own pace
and with increasing possibility could in fact happen.
Why
elections in 2011?
Why is Mugabe
pushing for elections when he lost in March
2008 and when recent polls show the MDC-T winning with 32% and
Mugabe at 18%? It would seem following the COPAC outreach exercise,
the hardliners in ZANU-PF have become convinced that the system
they put in place with devastating effect in June 2008 is still
intact and that threats of the return to such violence could land
them victory. Moreover, they calculate the impact of the protest
vote for the opposition arising from the massive economic crisis
of 2008 has gone down, while the MDC-T seems to be focusing on their
factional fighting.
The recent events
show that Mugabe and ZANU-PF have no desire to leave power soon
or peacefully. The discovery of diamonds, the growth in agriculture
and the economic "indigenisation" program will require
an appropriate enabling political framework that can only be provided
by untrammeled ZANU-PF control of the state. Even though ZANU-PF
is talking about a peaceful campaign, next year's election
is likely to be characterised by state-orchestrated violence, intimidation
and the manipulation of the results to ensure a Mugabe victory.
What this means
is that the struggle for democratisation in Zimbabwe is far from
being won. What is now required is a united force of all progressive
forces to build independently and renew both political and economical
struggles against the ZANU-PF dictatorship as well as the neoliberal
capitalist agenda of the ruling class in Zimbabwe. This movement
must also not have any illusions in the MDC-T or [minority faction]
MDC-M, whose leaders have shown themselves not only to be greedy
self-interested and cowardly junior partners of the dictatorship
but also have been at the forefront of pushing massive neoliberal
policies that attack ordinary people. They are a vacillating lot,
one day wining and dining with the dictatorship and the other moaning
about victimisation. It is hoped that the latest events will show
increasing layers of ordinary MDC-T supporters of the need for a
resolute and decisive battle for democracy against the regime and
capitalism.
The proposed
[constitutional] referendum can be used as a launch pad for a bitter
fight with the system of neoliberalism and tyranny which must clearly
go beyond the constitutional-making process. Given the dominance
of the COPAC Outreach program by ZANU-PF through manipulation and
intimidation, it is likely that its positions on an all-powerful
executive president and non-inclusion of socio-economic rights will
prevail. In any case, both MDC formations are now calling for a
negotiated constitution, which is likely to be based on the anti-working
people Kariba Draft, which contains neoliberal anti-working class
provisions. If the MDC-T was really sincere it would have called
for contentious provisions to be put directly as questions for decision
in the referendum. But it isn't and seeks to lie to the people that
it will facilitate the writing of a new constitution on getting
into power.
For the above
reasons, now that we have exposed in practice the hypocrisy of the
elites, we should start preparing to reject the likely elitist,
neoliberal and undemocratic constitution they are brewing. As we
argued in our posters, with our interests not included we must mobilise
for a "Vote No in the referendum" as part and parcel of
building a general and united anti-dictatorship and anti-capitalist
uprising in this country.
It is time we
learn from our mistakes as ordinary people that our struggles were
hijacked when the MDC was formed. This time we have to do away with
the capitalist system and join hands with other fighting working
peoples of the world, such as we see in France, Greece and South
Africa, who are also revolting against the system today.
Visit the ISO
fact
sheet
Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.
TOP
|
