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2010 in retrospect and a prognosis for 2011
Mass Public Opinion Institute
November 25, 2010

Speakers:

1. Ms Rita Nyamupinga: Board Member, Women’s Coalition and Co-Chairperson, Church and Civil Society Forum.

2. Mr. Simon Badza: Political Science Lecturer, University of Zimbabwe

3. Mr. Trevor Maisiri: Executive Director, Africa Reform Institute

As has become practice in its endeavor to enhance public dialogue, The Mass Public Opinion Institute hosted a public seminar on 25 November 2010 at New Ambassador Hotel in Harare This public seminar was the last one for the year and was befittingly held under the topic, ‘2010 in Retrospect and a Prognosis for 2011’. Approximately 80 people attended the seminar which was however marred by last minute withdrawals of representatives from the two main political parties on the domestic political scene, i.e., Zanu-PF and the MDC-T. The absence of these representatives did not however dampen proceedings at the seminar.

The first speaker, Mr. Simon Badza who is a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe tackled the topic from an international relations perspective. He pointed out that his discussion was to be understood within the context of the SADC mediated September 15 2008 Global Political Agreement that seems to be defying full implementation and the Inclusive Government that will soon be celebrating its second anniversary in February 2011, provided it will be alive and well. He argued that by and large, Zimbabwe’s international relations in the period under review, like any other period has been a function of both the domestic and external environment. He said the domestic environment was predominantly characterized by challenges in the implementation of the GPA both in its letter and spirit. The external environment basically includes the policies of other countries towards Zimbabwe in the light of the extent of progress in building a better post-inconclusive elections Zimbabwe.

He used the framework of political realism as the appropriate skeleton of analysis. He said political realism emphasizes the promotion and defence of national self-interests of the state which are conventionally defined in terms of power for security and most importantly survival in an international environment that has no government above government and where survival of the fittest seems to be the real or most practical rule. He emphasized that foreign policy or international relations of any country are a function of its perceptions about the behavior and intentions of other countries towards itself. On the domestic front, Mr. Badza said, certain developments in Zimbabwe could be classified as progress, for instance the constitution of various commissions and the concluded COPAC consultations. He also talked about negative developments in the year 2010. He cited perceived unilateralism in the appointment of provincial governors, the RBZ governor, the Attorney General and appointment of judges, lack of political will to appoint Bennet as Deputy Minister of Agriculture and the seemingly fruitless endless talks to end talks. On the external environment, Mr. Badza zeroed in on developments within the SADC bloc and their impact on Zimbabwe and vice versa. In his projection for 2011, Mr. Badza said SADC is likely to maintain its quiet or African diplomacy on Zimbabwe. He also argued that SADC’s success on the Zimbabwe issue will depend more on Zanu-PF’s willingness than on MDC-T pressure or any other outside actor. On the AU, Mr. Badza felt the continental body is likely to maintain quiet diplomacy and continue to rely on the SADC sub-regional efforts in 2011 with the hope of resolving with finality the Zimbabwean question. He prognosticated that relations with the US, its friends and allies, EU and the White Commonwealth will remain significantly the same. Prospects for re-engagement and non-humanitarian support are likely to be kept based on progress in the GPA implementation. He argued that humanitarian assistance is likely to continue essentially to minimize collateral damage caused by restrictive policies or sanctions. As he wound up his presentation, Mr. Badza said the non-Western world i.e. China, Russia, Middle East, NAM, G-77 are likely to maintain their solidarity and support for Zimbabwe regardless of developments related to the GPA and the Inclusive Government.

Ms Nyamupinga highlighted that the year 2010 has been a very difficult one for women in Zimbabwe. She pointed out that albeit the availability of basic commodities, devaluation has made it difficult for the Zimbabwean woman to meet basic needs like bread. On the constitutional reform front, Ms Nyamupinga lamented that although women participated they had to fight for their space to get the recognition and no-one knew the quota for the women in the drafting of the new constitution. At the generic level, Ms Nyamupinga talked about improvements in the health delivery system but bemoaned the relatively high infant mortality rate, and issues of understaffing at some health centers. On the education front, Nyamupinga said that while Zimbabwe boasted of high literacy rate in Africa, the year 2010 was not that rosy for teachers who are surviving on incentive handouts by parents. Other things that dampened the public mood in 2010 was that industry is not yet fully operational, and a number of basic things like food and clothing are to a greater extent being imported from neighboring South Africa and the Far East. The resurfacing of bank queues further added a damper to other glittering facets of the year 2010. On her prognosis for 2011, Ms Nyamupinga said it is likely to be a violent year since the nation is preparing for elections. Should the elections go ahead as scheduled women and children are likely to bear the brunt of that conflict. She said she foresees a scenario where the nation will come up with a negotiated constitution and in the event that elections are held, one of the parties will actually go it alone and would adopt an ‘I don’t care attitude’ because people are still in a fear mode. She predicted that whatever will happen in the elections will be a replica of what happened in June 2008.

The director of Africa Reform Institute, Mr. Trevor Maisiri dwelt much on a prognosis for 2011, claiming that he did not want to devote his energy on focusing on the year 2010 as most of the things had been exhausted by those who spoke before him. He declared that the constitutional process was as good as dead and Zanu-PF would like elections early so that it could return to its old ‘good’ days. Mr. Maisiri said looking ahead into 2011, the former ruling party would want to see the MDC-T decimated and this would be achieved through use of psychological violence (70%) and physical violence (30%). He added that he foresaw an election definitely taking place in 2011 and Zanu-PF was likely to adopt sector specific campaign groups for the purposes of mobilizing for the polls. In winding up his presentation Maisiri talked about possible scenarios that would emerge should elections be held next year 2011. The presentations were followed by a lively discussion in which participants sought clarification from the speakers and aired their own views on the subject matter. The seminar on the whole was very successful and informative.

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