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Zimbabwe Briefing - Issue 2
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition
November 12, 2010

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From National Unity to Parallel Government: Understanding Zimbabwe towards 2011

The growing animosity between President Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is fast resulting in what Americans call gridlock in the Zimbabwe government. The usual Monday teas between the two principals have now been abandoned since they have little to talk about given the growing hostility. Cabinet meetings will still be attended by ministers from both parties and those from the Mutambara group, and so will the Council of Ministers meetings.

In short, the two major political parties are drifting further apart every day as the nation anticipates general elections come mid-2011. Meanwhile, the Committee of Parliament on the Constitution (Copac) is soldiering on with the futile exercise of drafting a democratic foundation law in accordance with the dictates of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) signed by the three principals last September. With this sort of stalemate, what is likely to happen in the next few months in this beleaguered southern African country?

There is likely to be nothing new coming from the December consultative meeting of Zanu-PF. It is obvious that Mugabe will once again be endorsed as that party's presidential candidate in the forthcoming elections. The usual hoodlums will, however up the ante by demanding that the old man be declared Zimbabwe's President for life at that meeting. We have already seen traditional chief do this at their Kariba meeting recently.

Not everyone in Zanu-PF is keen on this ridiculous demand, but those that are opposed to it will be too scared to express their views. There is probably more intimidation and fear in Zanu- PF than anywhere outside that former liberation movement. The party is likely to also make use of this meeting to strategise for the June 2011 elections, and the damaging indigenization and economic empowerment policy is likely to be that party's trump card.

Mugabe had categorically stated that the government of national unity (GNU) is not going to have its two-year life span extended. This means that the GNU will most likely terminate about mid-February 2011. Whether Copac will have completed the writing of the draft constitution or not, Mugabe is likely to dissolve the GNU and the nation will revert to the old Lancaster House Constitution. The MDC ministers will all be dismissed from government and elections will then be called.

This will enrage the Tsvangirai faction of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which will run again to the dubious Southern African Development Community (SADC) to request for mediation. As usual, the regional body will drag its feet regarding that fallout. Violence is likely to flare up more fiercely after that, and many Zimbabweans will begin to leave the country again for safer places such Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana and South Africa.

The national economy will begin to stagger like a drunken sailor, and the social sector will once again be plunged into chaos. The danger of a cholera breakout is very real as service delivery will collapse again as a result of the chaos. Sadly, dictators always benefit from a chaotic situation. The international community will maintain the economic sanctions and travel restrictions currently affecting the country.

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