| |
Back to Index
The
Parties & Their Politics - 'Progress' in Zimbabwe Conference
Amanda
Atwood, Kubatana.net
November 08, 2010
'Progress' in
Zimbabwe Conference index
page
View audio file details
Speaker:
Ibbo Mandaza
Discussants: John Makumbe, James Muzondidya
Key Participants: Nqobizitha Mlilo, Joshua Mpofu, Anastasia Moyo
Ibbo Mandaza
began the discussion with a critique of political parties in Africa.
He said that if a political party is not in power, it splinters
and fades out. The strength of any political party post independence
has been its conflation with the state. In the case of Zimbabwe,
elements of Zanu PF hold the centre of power in the state. This
is not the same as the party - the party might be quite dead
in reality.
He criticised
political parties as weak and amorphous, and described them as movements
more than political parties per se. He said that they were ideologically,
intellectually and organisationally vacuous, except in their nationalist
fervour of getting independence. Opposition parties, he argued,
were driven by the goal of getting into government. But they too
lacked a coherent ideology, and programme of action. Thus, he argued,
those who are in power design methods to retain power. Those who
are out of power become election based.
In the case
of Zimbabwe, he noted that the MDC appears to have won the last
four elections, but has not been able to take power. The pillars
of the Zimbabwe state in the last decade have particularly been
patronage, violence and the threat of violence.
Mandaza called
for an interrogation of the "new democracy" of the MDC
in regard to its failure to understand the content of the post colonial
state. He said that an enduring faith in elections at foundation
of democracy has exposed the grave limitations of opposition politics:
its inability to restrategise in the face of formidable state machinery.
Mandaza said
that, if we have been able to describe Zanu PF as largely conflated
with the state from which it might be rejuvenated, we must also
speak of the MDC, at least on the basis of the last two years of
the GPA, as amorphous, lacking in direction, and lacking in capacity.
He argued that the MDC has virtually been swallowed, and circumscribed
in what it can do or not do. He agreed that the GPA
has brought peace, and at least a modicum of economic recovery.
But the opposition movement has lost its leverage. Mandaza said
that it is difficult to see what kind of opposition we'll
have a year from now. He believes we will be writing the obituary
of the MDC, or at least its current leadership, this time next year,
and he sees no hope in either of the two major political parties
in terms of the rejuvenation of the Zimbabwean political process.
Listen
John Makumbe
commented that intellectuals who successfully joined political parties
effectively abandoned intellectualism. There is an opportunism and
a desire for material success. He argued that parties in Africa
are entrepreneurial outfits. You are in there for money. If it doesn't
pay you get out. The parties are personalised. It's all about
the "dear leader," and when the leader loses power the
party dies.
In Southern
Africa, he said, no liberation movement has ever handed power over
to another political party - not in Angola, Mozambique, South
Africa or Zimbabwe. It is therefore obvious, Makumbe argued, that
liberation movements are necessarily dictatorial. So it is naïve,
he said, to expect to remove them from power through democratic
means. Rather, Makumbe argued, extra-democratic or undemocratic
means are necessary. Any dictator who is susceptible to removal
from power through democratic means is not a dictator.
Listen
Makumbe argued
that Zimbabwe is heading for a constitution that will be a contested
document between Zanu PF and MDC. He said that the MDC did not campaign
for the inclusion of its preferred positions as heavily as Zanu
PF did. Zanu PF is also not very keen on a Constitution that createsa
level political playing field. Cynically, Makumbe mused that a compromise
document is not really such a bad idea. As he pointed out, the GNU
is a compromise - so why not have a compromise of a constitution
and a compromise for an election.
Listen
Makumbe said
it was likely the draft Constitution would be rejected by both the
MDC and Zanu PF - which would suit Zanu PF, as the current
Lancaster
House Constitution favours Zanu PF. He stressed the need for
a situation in 2011 in which rigging is stopped. He then described
several different scenarios.
- Scenario
1: MDC wins elections in 2011. Robert Mugabe refuses to concede
defeat. And so SADC comes in again, and starts negotiations for
GPA Round 2, GNU Round 2, COPAC Round 2. In other words, we are
going to go back to where we were in 2008. Makumbe said that this
scenario is very likely.
- Scenario
2: MDC wins the election, Zanu PF screams but concedes defeat,
and eventually allows the MDC to run the country. This, he argued,
was unlikely.
- Scenario
3: Zanu PF wins the election, MDC screams. SADC comes in and says
Zanu PF actually won, and so again back to 2008.
- Scenario
4: The big event - 4a) Robert Mugabe dies and Parliament
elects the next President, at least until the next elections.
There is chaos in Zanu PF as the various factions fight for who
should be elected. Eventually SADC comes in, mediates, and dissolves
Parliament. Elections are held, and the MDC wins the elections
because Zanu PF does not have anyone who can stand shoulder to
shoulder against Morgan Tsvangirai in an election and expect to
win. 4b) It's not Robert Mugabe who dies, it's Morgan.
The same chaos that will happen in Zanu PF will happen in MDC.
In other words, that big event scenario will throw the nation
into a lot of problems. That's the nature of political parties
in Zimbabwe, and it's a very worrying situation.
Listen
Visit the Kubatana.net
fact
sheet
Audio File
Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.
TOP
|
