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World Cup may trigger early general election in Zimbabwe
Alex Duval Smith, The Guardian (UK)
February 14, 2010

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/14/zimbabwe-early-election-world-cup

Opponents of President Robert Mugabe have demanded early elections in Zimbabwe, timed to coincide with the World Cup being staged in neighbouring South Africa.

The demand by the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) came as talks to extend the lifespan of the year-old unity government ended in deadlock last week.

The MDC hopes that the media focus on the region will raise the possibility of staging free and fair elections. High-ranking figures in the party, whose leader Morgan Tsvangirai was sworn in as prime minister a year ago, said South Africa's desire to host a successful World Cup depended on peace in the region. "The spotlight of the world will be on them. They do not want trouble up the road," said a senior MDC official who declined to be named.

Tsvangirai was touring drought-hit Matabeleland in the south of the country yesterday, but his finance minister, Tendai Biti, said relations with Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) were at an all-time low: "Zanu-PF cannot continue to urinate on us. They have no right to continue abusing the people of Zimbabwe. If there is an irretrievable breakdown then one must accept the reality of divorce."

Elections in 2008 were marred by widespread state-sponsored violence and up to 200 deaths. After the MDC won a slim parliamentary majority in March, Tsvangirai pulled out of the June presidential runoff against Mugabe because of the high death toll.

A South African mediation process led to the creation of the temporary "unity government", tasked with drawing up a new constitution and organising elections. But in the past year, Tsvangirai's authority has continually been undermined by Mugabe, who has been in power since 1980.

Biti denied that staging early elections was risky: "We will win elections in Zimbabwe yesterday, today or tomorrow." He also said the elections would be free from violence: "South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are guarantors of our global political agreement and they know that an election is the logical exit from that agreement."

Mugabe told Zanu-PF's congress in December to prepare for elections soon, but few expected them before next year. Speculation now centres on elections taking place in April, even though there are huge questions about the state of the electoral roll and where the loyalty of the police and armed forces will lie.

Biti said the MDC would prefer the unity government to see through its mandate of drafting a new constitution, ahead of elections, but added that "more than anything else the people of Zimbabwe want real change".

The finance minister is credited with transforming the country's economy in the past year by scrapping the Zimbabwe dollar, which for 10 years had been printed at will by central bank governor Gideon Gono, causing record inflation.

Biti has also restarted part of the economy by arranging for teachers, government ministers, soldiers, doctors and nurses to be paid monthly salaries of up to US$250 (£160). However, the rural poor are dependent on barter and restiveness is setting in: last week civil servants went on strike claiming they need $700 a month (£450) to survive.

Meanwhile, the junta surrounding Mugabe has continued to enrich itself from mining operations and business arrangements with a small number of cowboy entrepreneurs who are evading international sanctions.

Indications that on Tuesday the European Union (EU) will drop some sanctions against businesses linked to the regime have left Mugabe unimpressed. The foreign secretary, David Miliband, told the Commons last month that sanctions would be lifted in a "calibrated way". But Mugabe - who since 2002 has been under an EU travel and asset freeze which now extends to nearly 180 other officials - wants faster action. In the past year, it has become clear that his motivation for swearing in Tsvangirai was to use him to lobby the EU on sanctions.

Opponents of Mugabe who are hoping for an early election had expected South African president Jacob Zuma to arrive in Zimbabwe this weekend to make the announcement. Last Wednesday, a South African facilitation team sent by Zuma left Harare after two days of fruitless talks, giving no date for a return visit.

Zuma's spokesman, Vincent Magwenya, said yesterday that the president was playing golf and would be tied up on internal government business in Cape Town until Wednesday at least.

Zuma is due to visit Britain next month. He would like to see progress on Zimbabwe but any move towards elections would risk attracting unwanted focus on the region ahead of the World Cup kick-off on 11 June. Already, South Africa is home to an estimated three million Zimbabwean refugees and a violent election could spark a new exodus.

Magwenya denied knowledge of any planned election. He said: "We would like to see Zimbabwe heading towards an election but there are outstanding matters. We would prefer a less confrontational environment. Zuma has emphasised that the parties do not have any other option than to continue engaging, regardless of their differences."

He said that, in the event of an election, it would be for the SADC, rather than South Africa, to decide on how to ensure a free and fair poll.

In 2008, SADC observers judged the controversial election to have been "free and fair".

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