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Hot Seat interview with Tendai Dumbutshena - Why the MDC should pull out of GNU
Violet Gonda, SW Radio Africa
October 02, 2009

http://www.swradioafrica.com/pages/hotseat071009.htm

Violet Gonda talks to Tendai Dumbutshena, a South African based Zimbabwean journalist and commentator, who strongly believes it's not too late for the MDC to pull out of the shaky inclusive government. ZANU PF is accused of being 'totally devoid of fairness, sincerity or good faith.' Dumbutshena argues that: "It's plain stupid to enter into such an agreement because you want to end people's suffering, when you don't have power yourself!" The outspoken commentator explains why he believes the power share government will never culminate in free and fair elections.

Violet Gonda: The MDC is conducting a series of consultations and feedback rallies to assess whether or not to remain in the fragile power-sharing government with ZANU PF. The Mugabe regime is accused of being totally devoid of the concept of fairness, sincerity and good faith in this agreement. There are those who believe it is highly unlikely that the MDC will ever pull out because it has been seduced by the privileges of being in government, others continue to insist that remaining in the unity government is still the only way forward. My guest on the programme Hot Seat is Tendai Dumbutshena, a South African based Zimbabwean journalist and commentator, who strongly believes the MDC should pull out and that it's not too late to do so. He first gives us his assessment of the progress of the power share agreement.

Tendai Dumbutshena: Well the inclusive government is not working despite what Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai say from time to time. It's becoming increasingly obvious that what it was set up to do and that is move Zimbabwe from a badly governed country into a true democracy is not going to happen. It's becoming increasingly evident to people who initially supported the idea of an inclusive government and it's quite obvious now that what you are seeing in motion now is Zanu-PF now unilaterally rolling out its agenda as the day of reckoning - by the day of reckoning I mean when the country has to go to elections and nobody knows when that will be. As it gets near, you will see the MDC being increasingly marginalised, even humiliated and all important decisions taken unilaterally by Zanu-PF.

Gonda: When the MDC agreed to join this coalition government, what do you think the MDC was thinking, what do you think they were thinking they were going to get out of this since many are now saying they went into an agreement that hasn't really given them much?

Dumbutshena: Well it's entirely their fault because a lot of people, including myself, who were well disposed to the cause they are supposed to espouse, warned them not to join this government until all pertinent outstanding issues were resolved. They were bullied and they were conned by Thabo Mbeki, Robert Mugabe and other SADC leaders into signing a very bad and incomplete agreement, whose implementation was entirely dependent on Zanu-PF's sincerity and goodwill. Now it is puzzling given what has happened to the MDC over the past ten years, how it has been treated by Zanu-PF, it's puzzling that they entered an agreement that put them at the mercy of Zanu-PF goodwill. Now they are paying the price because they were warned repeatedly that Zanu-PF only entered into this agreement for two reasons: (a) to get legitimacy for Mugabe's presidency after the June 27th fiasco and second, to get targeted sanctions lifted against Mugabe and his followers and thirdly to get some economic relief from the western countries. The legitimacy is in the bag but the sanctions are still there and the money is coming in dribs and drabs and Zanu-PF is in a very, very nasty mood. That's why they are saying that all, there is only one outstanding issue and that is sanctions and that they have fully discharged their responsibilities and they are now dealing with the MDC on a take it or leave it basis.

Gonda: But Tendai, what could the MDC have done at that time, because remember last year there was no food in the stores, there was cholera and widespread human rights abuses. Did they really have a choice but to enter?

Dumbutshena: They did, there are always choices in life. What they should have done after the AU summit in Egypt, they should have said yes, we are prepared to work together with Zanu-PF to get the country out of this mess but on the following conditions: one - that we do not accept the legitimacy of Mugabe's presidency; that we want a transitional government of a stipulated time, of limited duration, to perform specific tasks that lead to an internationally supervised free and fair election and enter into a transitional administration where there is genuine power sharing between the two parties. That's what they should have insisted on and had Zanu-PF rejected those conditions then they should have said OK, then you go ahead. But to say that you enter into an agreement because you want to end the peoples' suffering is plain stupid - because you can't end peoples' suffering if you don't have power yourself, because nothing has changed. The militia is still there, the security forces are still highly politicised and you will see one thing that is guaranteed is that when those elections come, people will realise, even the naïve people will realise that nothing has changed, there's no way Zanu-PF is going to allow a free and fair election in Zimbabwe. So the whole thing in my opinion is just a total fiasco, the MDC blundered big time and they are now paying the price and the country will ultimately pay the price because there is this false hope that there's a solution unfolding in Zimbabwe but there's none, there's absolutely none and in a year's time or two years' time there will be conclusive evidence that Zimbabwe's not moved an inch towards becoming a democracy.

Gonda: But on the other hand, what do you think would have been the humanitarian situation right now if the MDC hadn't joined this coalition government and also some observers say that although Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF were weakened by the elections last year, they were far from down and out and in fact, Africa supported them to the hilt?

Dumbutshena: Well some of what you say is partially true. There is evidence that after June 27th, there was a split in the African ranks. Because even those sympathetic to Robert Mugabe could not accept what happened in the presidential run off. Now you see Violet, let me go back to the days of the liberation struggle just to give an example to illustrate my point. There was a lot of suffering in the rural areas, people were being killed by both sides, people couldn't farm because of the war, there were landmines, schools were closed, clinics were closed, people were in protected villages - that was real suffering. But does it mean that to end the peoples' suffering, the liberation-struggle leaders had to cave in to Smith? It doesn't make sense because you are now offering people a false solution. The MDC should have insisted on a transitional government that ushers in, that was guaranteed to usher in a new dispensation in Zimbabwe. What they did was to cave in and to be co-opted by what is essentially a Zanu-PF government.

Let me just make one interesting point, you see after the AU summit in Egypt, the first thing that Mugabe did when he got to Harare, he convened a politburo meeting and they issued a statement saying OK they will go ahead with the government of national unity but the presidency is non-negotiable. At that point the MDC should have refuted that statement to say it is very much negotiable because that presidency was obtained through fraud and violence, but they accepted that and by accepting that they conceded power to Zanu-PF because all power in Zimbabwe is vested in the presidency. So what effectively then happened is they were co-opted into an essentially a Zanu-PF government and given cars and offices and empty titles and you now see evidence of that. You have a Prime Minister without a single executive authority. Decisions are made and implemented, and this is only the beginning, I stress this is only the beginning, you'll see in the months ahead that decisions will be unilaterally made without Tsvangirai's knowledge or consent and he will be dealt with on a take it or leave it basis because they calculate that the MDC leadership is too comfortable in office and will not opt out of government. So they will just have to swallow whatever they throw at them.

Gonda: So in your view, what do you think the MDC should do?

Dumbutshena: What I think they should do they will not do but what I think they should do is to pull out. Because if they pull out, it will do two things: number one - it will get the SADC leaders off their backsides because history has shown that since the crisis began in 2000, SADC leaders become proactive when Mugabe is under pressure. They never become proactive to get Mugabe to do the right thing and they know that without the MDC in this government, this government will be very, very shaky and its viability, contrary to what people believe, its viability will be in question, its long term viability and they will then intervene and maybe some of the outstanding issues may be seriously dealt with. But if they stay in there, SADC leaders are quite prepared to wash their hands of Zimbabwe and let Mugabe do whatever he wants to do - which is what is happening.

Gonda: But you know, some say if the MDC was to pull out, the alternative is that the extremists in Zanu-PF will just take over and then there will be more violence and mayhem.

Dumbutshena: Well that's a very fallacious statement because they are going to take over anyway whether they remain in or not. That's the point people miss, they are going to stay, and they are going to remain power. You must take Zanu-PF seriously, you must take Mugabe seriously when he says they will never allow transfer of power to the MDC - and they will not allow it in 2010 or 2011 or 2012. And this fallacy of extremist, there are no extremists in Zanu-PF. Mugabe and the security guys call the shots - they are the extremists. This notion that Mugabe is a moderate and we can deal with him so that we keep the extremists out of power is nonsense. The extremists are in power, the securocrats and Mugabe and the CIO, those are the people who run Zimbabwe and they are the people in power and they are the people who will bare their teeth to the MDC in the coming months.

Gonda: But still what will be the MDC's Plan B if it pulls out, especially as we know that SADC and the AU have largely supported the Mugabe regime and many say SADC has been unable to deal with the Zimbabwe situation before the GNU; If they were to pull out now, do you really think SADC will come to the rescue?

Dumbutshena: Well you see, this whole thing about SADC again, it was nonsensical for the MDC when it had leverage before it signed, it knew that Zanu-PF was desperate for it to join the government, it knew the SADC countries were desperate for it to join the government, so it had leverage, it had bargaining power - that's when it should have insisted on the resolution of these outstanding issues prior to joining, to signing that agreement. Now they want SADC to do their work for them, to address issues that they should have insured were addressed before they put their signature on paper. I think that's being unfair to SADC to a very large extent and again they were warned that the SADC guarantees were worthless. You see if in life you don't learn from previous experience then there's something fundamentally wrong. SADC neither has the inclination nor the courage to confront Mugabe. So the MDC was in a strong position, they held the high moral ground, the Mugabe regime was wobbly, contrary to what people think, it was broke, it was divided, it was demoralised. The MDC just failed to strategise and to drive the advantage that they had. The African leaders that everybody talks about were divided; Botswana stuck its neck out and said we can't recognise this and had the MDC stood firm it would have received a lot of support from Africa and from SADC because on all the issues, the MDC was right and Zanu-PF was wrong. But they caved in, even the people who supported them, just gave up and said well if they accept this, they are the people, they are the Zimbabweans so what can we do? And some were in despair because they knew, they knew that the thing wouldn't work.

Let me just say one thing - a Constitutional Court judge here in South Africa in a case before the Constitutional Court said to the lawyers for the defendants, he said your clients are like people who walk into a lion's den and see a lion and then they complain that they have seen a lion. That's exactly what the MDC did; they walked into this agreement knowing that Zanu-PF and Robert Mugabe - the concept of fairness and sincerity is totally alien to them because fundamentally they believe that they fought for Zimbabwe and that gives them the right to govern it for ever and that they do not need the mandate of the people. They know that and then you go into a very bad incomplete agreement putting yourself at the mercy of such people. Now they are paying the price.

Gonda: So Tendai, if the MDC failed to negotiate a proper package as you say, why would you think they would be an effective government if they can't negotiate for equitable distribution of powers in a unity government?

Dumbutshena: Well I've never said they would be an effective government, I never said that. I think they've let people down. At the critical moment in the fight for democracy in Zimbabwe, which they were leading, they displayed very, very poor judgement. They were bullied as I said, they were conned and they were seduced by the material comforts of office. Those three factors are what made them sign and of course a lot of naivety in the mix you see. Now they are paying the price. Now they see the nature of the beast that they are dealing with and as, I'll repeat myself, this is only the beginning.

Gonda: You said in your view, you think they should pull out but they will not pull out. Why do you think they will not?

Dumbutshena: Because they are seduced by the status and comfort of office, one. Two, at least when they are in government they are safe from the CIO and all the men of violence in Zanu-PF and they enjoy the little comforts that goes with office - the travel, the red passports, the chauffeured driven cars and so forth and the leadership is getting soft. But obviously there is a division in the MDC, that's what we read, but the top leadership, I'll be very, very, very surprised if they decide to pull out. They'll just stay in and hope for the best.

Gonda: On this issue of pulling out, I'm still not sure what the Plan B would be if they were to pull out especially when you have clearly stated that SADC is toothless and that Zanu-PF would just dig in, so what can they actually do after pulling out?

Dumbutshena: Well what they can do is to say, at least they will weaken the regime - that's a plus. And number two they will not be part and parcel of a fraudulent process that will culminate in Zanu-PF retaining power. You see because if they stay in this inclusive government, I swear to you that there is this belief that there will be free and fair elections; that the MDC will win is just a pure fallacy. Zanu-PF will not allow that. They will not allow that and we will have, and we will have given people false hope, a false solution and at the end of the day they'll have another violent, fraudulent election with Zanu-PF retaining power and it will have been done with the complicity of the MDC. That is why they should pull out because if they don't, they will be complicit in what happens, in what will inevitably happen and there will be no-one to cry to - because if at the end of this process Mugabe and Zanu-PF are still in power and Zimbabwe has not moved an inch towards becoming a democracy, then the very least Tsvangirai should do is resign, because he will have failed the people. He would have been proven to have exercised extremely poor judgement at the critical moment. So they have a choice - they can be completely complicit or they can say we tried but these people are not serious so we can't be part of this, they can do whatever they want, we go back to being an opposition and to fight for the peoples' rights in whatever way we deem possible or necessary. That's the choice they face - to be complicit in this fraudulent process or to pull out and say we tried but these are people we can't deal with because they are completely devoid of good faith and they are leading us up a garden path and we are not prepared to walk along that path with them. Those are the choices that face them.

Gonda: And do you think Zanu-PF cares?

Dumbutshena: It does care. The Zanu-PF regime will be under extreme pressure if the MDC pulls out because the problems of legitimacy, you must remember that Mugabe's legitimacy that he enjoys right now, universally now, stems from the GPA. It doesn't stem from the June 27th fiasco. So if the GPA ceases to exist then he has legitimacy problems, then sanctions are tightened, then the little money that is coming in ceases to come in. You can forget about investment from the business community and so forth and now you come to the issue of the viability of the Zanu-PF regime, then it becomes their problem. But if the MDC stays in, as I said, it will become complicit in a fraudulent process that will culminate in Zanu-PF retaining power by hook or crook. That's the choice that faces the MDC in my opinion.

Gonda: Now we know that some of the outstanding issues include the swearing in of Roy Bennett, the swearing in of governors and the appointment of the Reserve Bank governor and the Attorney General but how would you respond to people who would say do you think the whole country should be turned into turmoil over these few outstanding issues?

Dumbutshena: But, you see, there are more than that, there are more than that. You can see that the constitution making process has stalled, no newspapers have been licensed except one that they own and so forth, so all these things just point to people who are very, very insincere, who have a hidden agenda and who will do whatever is necessary to retain power. So it's not just that these are a few issues and so on and so on, the whole thing is a charade, the whole process is a charade and the MDC has to decide whether it continues to be part of this charade and becomes complicit in this fraudulent process or it cuts its losses and pulls out. To me it's as simple as that.

Gonda: You know there are some who say the people who are advocating for a pull out are not looking at the situation squarely and that if the MDC pulls out right now, having been given the exposure to some extent being in government, it will just take 48 hours for Zanu-PF to shut down the country and declare a state of emergency.

Dumbutshena: Well let them do that. Let them do that. You see, what those people fail to understand is that there comes a point where you cannot appease people because you are afraid of them. You'll not make progress that way. History is full of such examples, that is why appeasement is a very dirty word. You must take principled positions. This inclusive government is not moving Zimbabwe towards a democracy, it is not, it is just a fraudulent process that will culminate in Zanu-PF retaining power with a fair degree of legitimacy because the MDC will have been part of that process. Now the question the MDC has to ask itself is that does it want to remain in government and legitimise what is going to be a perpetuation of Zanu-PF rule or does it become honest to itself and to its people. Forget about African leaders, to its people - those are the most important people. To say to your people we tried, we saw your suffering and we thought we could work with these people but they have demonstrated that they are completely insincere and we cannot be part and parcel of giving you people false hope and then, which we know will be dashed when the moment of truth arise.

Gonda: The MDC is currently holding these consultative meetings with members of the public and their supporters, what do you think Zimbabweans want?

Dumbutshena: I think, it is a difficult question for me because I don't live in Zimbabwe as you know, I think that you will find that the country is divided and peoples' level of understanding is different. You'll find that among the thinking classes if I may use that term, among the thinking classes, people who are conscious of what is going on, not people who are driven by desperate hope - who say let's go on zvimwe zvichanaka (let's go on perhaps things will get better), but people who understand the political dynamics of the country and what's going on, they will support a pull out.

Gonda: And a final word Tendai.

Dumbutshena: Well the final word is, I'm afraid to say that we know the character of Zanu-PF so I'm not disappointed with Zanu-PF because that's exactly what I expected, that's exactly what we warned, so I'm not disappointed with Zanu-PF at all. They have been true to their character but it is the MDC which has been a major, major disappointment because they've allowed themselves to be duped, they've allowed themselves to be seduced by petty privileges, they've allowed, they've lost sight of the big picture and are now part and parcel of a process that will not move Zimbabwe any closer towards the kind of society we all want it to be.

Gonda: Tendai Dumbutshena thank you very much for talking to us on the programme Hot Seat.

Dumbutshena: It's a pleasure.

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