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Zimbabwe's bloated government headed the way of Kenya's
Stephan Hofstatter, Business Day
May 02, 2009

http://www.thezimbabwean.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20900&Itemid=103

The rapid unravelling of Kenya's "unity" government, formed after intervention by the international community to quell the violent conflict that following the flawed 2007 election, does not augur well for Zimbabwe.

Last year, when the three main players in the politics of our northern neighbour were negotiating a settlement of their often violent disagreements through the mediation efforts of former president Thabo Mbeki, the Kenyan example was embraced by some as a uniquely African solution that Zimbabwe would do well to emulate. But the fundamentals of democracy are universal; there may be forms that are better suited to African cultures and the circumstances particular countries find themselves in, but there are essential elements that cannot be abandoned without making a mockery of the concept. Settlements negotiated at a political level may be necessary as an interim measure on occasion, but they are no substitute for democratic elections.

That is in the process of being illustrated in Kenya, where co-operation between Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement and President Mwai Kibaki's Party of National Unity is now almost nonexistent and few of the disputes that led to the post-election violence have been resolved. The bloated "unity" government may incorporate representatives of the vast majority of Kenyans who voted in the disputed election, but it is deadlocked over all but the most minor issues, and those tend to concern perks paid to Kenya's 94 ministers and deputies. The core of the problem in both Kenya and Zimbabwe is that incumbent parties which lost elections refuse to hand over power. The winners were persuaded to accept negotiated settlements by the promise that the resulting unity governments would be temporary, but have ended up shooting themselves in the foot. Neither Kibaki nor Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe are prepared to risk a free and fair election, so they are content to drag things out indefinitely. The longer there is no progress, the weaker the position of the opposition.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in Zimbabwe was on the back foot from the start due to Mbeki's blatant bias towards Mugabe, but was so keen to end the persecution of its followers and arrest the downward spiral of the economy that it accepted a deal that left Mugabe with the lion's share of power. Now it is paying the price, with Mugabe's Zanu PF blithely ignoring the terms of the agreement and the international community quite rightly declining to finance the country's reconstruction until the promised reforms have been implemented. The danger for both Odinga and the MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai is that citizens will turn against them. Already in Kenya the only effective opposition to Kibaki is perceived to be coming from civil society organisations, and Orange party representatives in government are increasingly tainted by corruption scandals.

In Zimbabwe, while a measure of economic stability has been achieved through the MDC taking over the finance ministry, meaningful recovery is not even on the horizon. Meanwhile, Mugabe is making a fool of the opposition by preventing it from making key appointments, refusing to release political detainees and unilaterally seizing a ministry that in terms of the unity agreement was meant to be controlled by the MDC. Farm invasions have increased in frequency, and the opposition has been powerless to intervene. Public servants are growing increasingly frustrated, and even the trade unions, which originally gave Tsvangirai the platform he needed to challenge Mugabe, are starting to demand an independent voice in matters such as the drafting of a new constitution, which is the preserve of Parliament. The unity government is going to have to produce results soon, or the MDC's credibility will be destroyed.

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