Back to Index

This article participates on the following special index pages:

Marriage with Mugabe
Business Day
February 02, 2009

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A930439

THE latest deal brokered by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Zimbabwe evokes the disturbing image of a shotgun marriage, with SA the aggressive relative holding the gun. Few of the witnesses really believe the union will last, or that the reluctant bride won't suffer further abuse at the hands of the rapist she has been forced to embrace, but everyone puts on a brave face.

Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) were put under intolerable pressure by SADC to agree to unfavourable terms, but even so it has to be said that the movement made an awful hash of these negotiations. As the winner of the closest thing to a democratic election that has taken place in Zimbabwe in the past decade, the MDC must be recognised as the people's choice, but it is often hopelessly naive and pathetically vulnerable to manipulation by Robert Mugabe as well as his allies in SADC.

Under stronger leadership the MDC would have been calling the shots by now, despite the odds that have been stacked against it. Mugabe's ruling Zanu (PF) is in disarray, the country at a standstill. The economy has been bled dry by corrupt officials, and a frighteningly high proportion of the population is either starving or dying of cholera or AIDS. Yet Tsvangirai and his lieutenants keep singing from different hymn sheets. There is seldom any evidence of strategy or vision and the party is eternally divided.

That said, there is little to be gained by dwelling on the MDC's inadequacies at this late stage of the game. What's done is done, and there is a human disaster unfolding that can no longer be averted but could still be contained. Tsvangirai, who will soon be sworn in to the newly created post of prime minister (and assume almost unbearable responsibility, with little in the way of power to fix all that is broken), must ensure that the fractures in his party are healed as soon as possible if he is to have any hope of achieving even limited success.

Mugabe will run rings around Tsvangirai if he does not have the full support of the MDC majority in parliament. The old tyrant retains control of most of the ministries that pull the levers of power in Zimbabwe, including the security forces, and he can be counted on to do everything he can to frustrate the MDC's efforts to turn things around and thereby ensure it loses popular support.

Having lobbed Tsvangirai a hospital pass, SADC owes it to the Zimbabwean people to at least make a genuine effort to ensure that Mugabe keeps his side of this Faustian bargain. The South African Presidency's call for the US and Europe to immediately lift the sanctions it has imposed upon Mugabe and his henchmen is hopelessly premature. Similarly, financial assistance from the international community should be targeted and its application carefully monitored to ensure that it is not abused. To put away the stick and give Mugabe an unlimited supply of carrots before he has earned his reward would be asking for another decade of misrule.

Part of the "compromise" brokered by the regional leaders was that a joint monitoring committee be set up to ensure the terms of the deal are implemented fairly. This occurred on paper on Friday, but will be worthless if its operations are not policed fairly.

Zanu (PF) has agreed to "look into" outstanding issues raised by the MDC, and it is SADC's responsibility to ensure that this is not mere lip service. A new formula for the distribution of provincial governors is another potential stumbling block, as is the promised review of the government's unilateral appointment of the reserve bank governor and attorney-general. If these — and the long-overdue review of Zimbabwe's repressive national security laws — come to nothing, the so-called "New Zimbabwe" will be dead in the water.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP