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Zimbabwe on path of "Inevitable transition"
Stephen Kaufman, US State Dept
October 18, 2008

View article on the US State Dept website

Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, is stalling the implementation of a power-sharing arrangement and clinging to power, but the top U.S. diplomat in Harare says the transition to a better future "truly has begun," even though the path will be "slow and rocky."

U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGee said talks to implement the September 15 power-sharing agreement between the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) face difficulty because of disagreements over the assignment of key government ministries.

Speaking in Washington on October 16 at an event organized by the Freedom House organization, McGee said ZANU-PF is trying to avoid allowing the MDC to control the home affairs and finance ministries, fearing "investigations and potential prosecutions of ZANU-PF officials for corruption and other illegal activities," as well as the end of the "patronage spigot which has enriched ZANU-PF officials and insiders."

McGee said Zimbabwe is currently "on the precipice" in terms of the many economic, social and political challenges it faces. He said 90 percent of the country's work force is unemployed, and the world's highest inflation rate is putting food and other prices beyond reach.

Two million people currently need food assistance and the number could rise to 5 million - more than half of Zimbabwe's population - by January 2009. In addition, McGee said the quality of education has deteriorated to the point where teachers' unions have called for a repeat of the past school year.

According to McGee, ZANU-PF, led by President Mugabe, has been forced to deal with its political rivals and share power because it realizes "it is powerless to turn the economy around and that only a legitimacy conferred by the inclusion of the MDC in the government would result in international assistance." But, "at the same time, ZANU-PF wishes to remain in power."

Party leaders and allies continue to enjoy special privileges such as foreign imports, gasoline and preferential treatment. "I do believe that Mugabe and the hardliners within his party, who stand to lose with the agreement, will continue to stall," McGee said.

The United States and others in the international community are aware that the September agreement is imperfect. "One of the things I like to say is there were holes in that agreement large enough to drive a truck through," he said. McGee said it is unclear to him how the decision-making process within government would work between the political rivals.

However, McGee said Zimbabwe is now "on a path of inevitable transition."

He urged Zimbabwe's neighbors in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union to step up their efforts to help bring about a solution.

"SADC may be the most important organ out there for coming to a rapid solution in Zimbabwe. The regional pressure that can be brought to bear on Zimbabwe, I think, would do more than anything else to solve the issues in the country," he said.

NGO's working hard to prevent humanitarian disaster

A humanitarian crisis looms as the country moves into what the ambassador said is the "food insecurity" time of year. "October is planting season in Zimbabwe. Right now, farmers should be planting and preparing their fields for the fast-approaching rains." In recent years, he said, seeds and fertilizer were mainly given only to farmers who support ZANU-PF, and even with good rains and crops, the country's food insecurity cannot be considered a short-term concern.

Even with ideal conditions, "we're looking at at least the growing season in 2010 before Zimbabwe would be in any shape to feed its own people," McGee said.

Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) distributing food are working hard but are behind in their efforts after their activities were banned by the Mugabe government before the presidential runoff election in June.

But there is plenty of food in the area that can be used to meet the growing demands, he said. "My latest report, which is probably a week old now, tells me that with the exception of two provinces [the NGOs] feel that they are making very, very good progress," and those difficulties are due to province governors "still creating issues that the NGOs are having trouble working around."

Ambassador McGee said the United States will continue to provide Zimbabwe with "substantial food assistance and humanitarian assistance," and its contributions for the 2008 calendar year will reach $186 million.

The Bush administration will also maintain its targeted sanctions against individuals and organizations affiliated with ZANU-PF "whose policies and practices undermine democratic processes and institutions."

McGee also said the United States wants eventually to re-engage with Zimbabwe and provide it with economic development assistance. However, there first needs to be "concrete evidence of lasting political and economic reform," such as a return to the rule of law and a free market system, respect for human rights and an end to corruption. "Until then, it will not happen," he said.

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