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Security is first test of Zimbabwe deal
The Sunday Times
September 14, 2008

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4748979.ece

The opposition wants British troops to help curb Mugabe's ruthless army RW Johnson A CALL for British troops to return to Zimbabwe and train its army will provide a crucial early test of whether an agreement to be signed tomorrow by President Robert Mugabe and his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai is a power-sharing deal or merely a fig-leaf for continued despotic rule.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Tsvangirai, who will become prime minister under the agreement, will demand the return of the British military advisory and training team, which trained Zimbabwe's security forces after independence.

About 200 British troops were based in Zimbabwe from independence in 1980 until they were withdrawn after the seizure of white farms began in 2000.

Their presence would reassure the MDC, whose leaders are worried about the deal's viability, particularly after Mugabe told tribal chiefs this weekend that putting his Zanu-PF together with the MDC was "like mixing fire and water".

Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence officials said they were aware of the call for military assistance but had not had a request from Harare. After independence the British training force provided intelligence capacity and the ability to extract foreign nationals in an emergency.

Under the deal, Mugabe will retain control of the army, while Tsvangirai will run policing. The army, which has been ruthlessly used with the so-called "war veterans" to attack MDC campaigners, will need to be depoliticised to restore law and order.

Already the war vets, who have made it clear that they do not feel bound by the deal, are angry that they were not consulted and some have accused Mugabe of "selling out".

The decision on British troops will have symbolic significance, given Mugabe's frequent railing against Britain and his insistence that "Zimbabwe will never be a colony again". Britain has kept a low profile during the negotiations and other Commonwealth countries have offered help with training.

"We'd all feel a lot safer with even a small number of British personnel on the ground, keeping an eye on things and making sure the old professional ethic is restored," said an MDC MP.

There are grave doubts in Harare that the agreement mediated by South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki can be made to stick. Professor Tony Hawkins, a leading Zimbabwe-an economist and an adviser to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is unconvinced.

"All the economic policies the Mugabe government pursued need to be reversed and the question is, will the national unity government be able to do it?"

According to Hawkins, everything depends on what the big donors and the IMF think of the deal. "The IMF will have to decide, 'How viable is this gov-ernment?' And I think they might say, 'This is not going to be workable.' " Mugabe will chair a cabinet of 31 ministers - 15 from his Zanu-PF, 13 from Tsvangirai's MDC, and three from Arthur Mutambara's breakaway faction of the MDC.

This division of power is hardly generous to the MDC, considering that Tsvangirai ran well ahead of Mugabe in the March 29 presidential election and that the opposition has a 110-99 majority in parliament.

It will be balanced by a council of ministers, chaired by Tsvangirai, which will supervise the cabinet's work, though how this double system of government will work is anyone's guess, according to officials close to the negotiations.

Mugabe was forced to the table because Zimbabwe's economy is in meltdown. More than 1m people face starvation. With inflation estimated at more than
11m%, the government agreed last week that shops could price and sell goods in foreign currency.

Already doctors are on strike, demanding their salaries in foreign currency. Everyone will now want the same, and Mugabe lacks foreign exchange to pay even the police or army.

The settlement will be guaranteed by a monitoring commission, on which the parties will be equally represented. But the opposition's main hope rests on a condition that the new government must reform the constitution and hold fresh elections in 18 months. If these are free and fair, Mugabe and his party could be swept away.

The MDC also sees the big aid donors as guarantors of the deal. The so-called Fishmongers Group, set up on Britain's initiative and including America, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Canada and Australia, will fund an immediate "stabilisation" plan with humanitarian aid. Since the government will depend on their cash, they will be able to use their leverage to prevent any backsliding by Mugabe.

The US has in effect led this group during the negotiations, and the tough American ambassador to Zimbabwe, James McGee, a black Vietnam veteran, received hourly briefings on the talks and approved the new settlement almost line by line.

Among the conditions laid down by the big donors is the removal of human rights abusers from office. The question of the 4,000 farms stolen from commercial farmers by Mugabe's thugs and now largely in the hands of his cronies will also have to be resolved.

The MDC has insisted there will be no general amnesty for Mugabe henchmen who were responsible for the Matabele-land massacres in the 1980s and who have continued to play an equally brutal role.

The Sunday Times can reveal that in May, Jendayi Frazer, the US assistant secretary of state for African affairs, flew to Zimbabwe for secret talks in which Mugabe's top dozen hard men were offered financial incentives in return for a settlement. The offer was turned down.

It may be that the US will quietly agree to make such payments. Failing that, Mbeki may spread South African largesse in their direction.

There was gloom in opposition circles as the first details of the settlement emerged. "We always knew we'd never get what we really wanted and what democracy required," said Eddie Cross, an MDC MP. "But it's a new start for the whole country and we have to make the best of it."

Power-sharing

Robert Mugabe will remain president; the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai becomes prime minister

Mugabe keeps command of the army while Tsvangirai will control the police

Mugabe will chair a 31-member cabinet consisting of 15 members of his party,
13 from the main opposition party and three from a breakaway opposition group

Tsvangirai will chair a new council of ministers, in charge of day-to-day administration and policy formulation, which will supervise the cabinet

There are no pardons for alleged war criminals, but talks about "compensating" members of Mugabe's government who go quietly will continue

A new constitution is to be introduced. "Free and fair" elections are to be held after 18 months

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