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Talks, dialogue, negotiations and GNU - Post June 2008 "elections" - Index of articles
Hopes
of a political settlement waning
IRIN
News
August 25, 2008
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79987
The crisis in
Zimbabwe is set to deepen, analysts said, as President Robert Mugabe
appeared to be "digging in" by trying to wrest control
of parliament on 25 August, and hopes of a transitional government
are waning.
The convening
of parliament and the appointments are a breach of a Memorandum
of Understanding (MOU) signed by the ZANU-PF and the two factions
of the MDC in July to pave the way for talks to resolve the political
impasse, said Lovemore Madhuku, chairperson of the National
Constitutional Assembly (NCA), an NGO lobbying for a new, people-driven
constitution.
The MOU stipulated
that none of the parties could make unilateral decisions before
a deal for an inclusive government was announced, but talks being
mediated by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) representative,
South African President Thabo Mbeki, have been deadlocked over how
power should be shared between Mugabe and Tsvangirai.
Mugabe's ZANU-PF
backed a candidate from the smaller faction of the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC-M) to be the speaker of parliament, against
the candidate proposed by main faction, MDC-T, led by Morgan Tsvangirai.
In a surprise
result, Lovemore Moyo, chairman of the Tsvangirai-led MDC, became
the first opposition speaker since the country's independence in
1980.
However, Mugabe
has also appointed three non-constituency members of the Senate
and eight provincial governors without consulting the opposition.
"It should
be borne in mind that the MOU is a political document, not a legally
binding one, and ZANU-PF could feel at liberty to put it aside,"
Madhuku commented.
"As it
is, it is likely that Mugabe will go ahead and announce a full cabinet,
considering that he has already taken the first step by announcing
provincial resident ministers [governors], and that could make the
signing of a deal impossible," he added.
Mugabe lost
the general elections on 29 March, and won the presidential run-off
on 27 June as the sole candidate after MDC leader Tsvangirai withdrew
because his supporters were being violently attacked.
Chris Mhike,
a legal expert and political commentator, told IRIN that indications
on the ground were that Mugabe was digging in and going for broke.
"The voting
trends for the speaker's post indicate a purely party political
agenda and not a national agenda," he said. "The fact
that Mugabe appointed governors only from his party is another indication
that the talks are in trouble."
Brian Raftopolous,
a Zimbabwean academic and analyst, said Mbeki could call for a resumption
of talks soon, as it seemed that Mugabe "will not give any
ground. He [Mugabe] has forced the MDC MPs [members of parliament]
to be sworn in, and that will see the impasse continue."
Economic
crisis
Zimbabwe's economic
crisis is set to worsen, Innocent Makwiramiti, a Harare-based economic
analyst, told IRIN. Almost everything is in short supply and annual
inflation has risen above 11 million percent.
"Hopes
of an economic turnaround were pinned on a successful political
deal. Given the direction in which things are moving, the economic
crisis will worsen," Makwiramiti commented.
"I foresee
a situation in which industry will grind to a complete halt in the
next six months, thousands of people will join millions of other
Zimbabweans who are living outside the country as economic refugees,
and there will be more political tension."
Tension
brewing
Signs of political
tension have resurfaced, after a lull in the political violence
that erupted following the March elections. Police briefly detained
two members of parliament from the Tsvangirai-led MDC on 25 August.
The police also
reported two bombings in the capital, Harare: in the first incident,
earlier in August, several offices at Harare central police station
were blown up; the second damaged a railway track 30km west of the
city on 21 August.
Police commissioner
general Augustine Chihuri recently admitted that they had not been
able to establish who was behind the bombings, but hinted that disgruntled
officers could be behind the police station incident.
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