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Transcript of 'Hot Seat' with Munyaradzi Gwisai, Petina Gappah and Prof Brian Raftopoulos
Violet Gonda, SW Radio Africa
August 01, 2008

http://swradioafrica.com/pages/hotseat060808.htm

Violet Gonda: We welcome on the programme Hot Seat, Petina Gappah a Zimbabwean writer and lawyer based in Geneva , Munyaradzi Gwisai a leader with the International Socialist Organisation and the chairperson of the Zimbabwe Social Forum and Professor Brian Raftopoulos a political commentator and Director of Research for the Solidarity Peace Trust. Welcome to you all.

All: Thank you.

Gonda: Let me start with Petina, can you give us your general thoughts on how you are seeing the situation in Zimbabwe and the talks that are ongoing between the political parties.

Petina Gappah: Well, Violet it is very difficult to actually come to any conclusions based on what we read in the press because I think that the press in Zimbabwe - the journalists in Zimbabwe have been grossly irresponsible in the way that they have reported on the ongoing negotiations.

Gonda: But is it the press that is to blame here or the political parties who have put this ban, this media blackout which has been very difficult for journalists to find what is happening with the talks?

Gappah: Well I blame both the politicians and the journalists. I don't really think there is a media ban, I think what we have seen is a lot of spinning. There has been a lot of spinning by the political parties, there has been a lot of spinning by the mediator and I think it is absolutely disgraceful that journalists have failed to penetrate this web of spin and they have actually added even more spin themselves, depending on which particular side they happen to support. So it is very difficult to actually tell what is going on because nobody is really giving us any real information.

Gonda: You wrote an article entitled: 'If Journalism is history's first draft then Zimbabwe is in trouble,' what were you concerned about in particular?

Gappah: Well, Violet I was really concerned about the extent to which speculation and rumour has become news especially for our web-based websites and the extent to which journalists seem to rely on anonymous sources and anonymous political analysts and they spice it up with a little bit of their own thinking. To the point that you wonder if what you are reading is actually news or reporting fiction - something invented by the journalist. And I am just really concerned that the press really served the Zimbabwean public quite badly in this last week and it has been happening for some time but this last week highlighted just how badly we have been served by the press.

Gonda: Munyaradzi what are your thoughts on this, and before you answer, can I add my thoughts - personally as a journalist I am finding it very difficult to cover the talks in South Africa. When you call ZANU PF, ZANU PF doesn't talk. When you call the MDC it is now behaving like ZANU PF - you can't even get a comment from the MDC. So that is a problem we are facing with the political parties. Munyaradzi what are your thoughts on this?

Munyaradzi Gwisai: Yes, we can only agree with you in terms of the civic society. We have now done about two meetings in the last couple of weeks - where we are extremely worried and frightened by what is happening in Pretoria , as Petina has said. Clearly the country is now at crossroads. The Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono made it clear that the country is standing on its last leg - if not the last toe - and yet the politicians have decided to sit together and slice the country amongst themselves at the exclusion of everyone else. So this is a very worrying situation.

That is our own view from civic society. That the exclusive talks that are being done cannot and will not be a resolution of the crisis in this country, which requires involvement of all stakeholders in terms of political, economic, civic and other players. So this is a very worrying situation that we are facing and we really have to stand up and demand our space and rights in this process.

Gonda: Professor Raftopoulos, you are there in South Africa. What are your thoughts on what's been happening because on the other hand some say some kind of a media blackout is necessary for the political parties to get some headway. How do you see things?

Raftopoulos: There has been a very strict media blackout on the talks so I really sympathize with journalists trying to get information because there is very little coming out. I think what should have been happening is that the mediators should have had a spokesperson who was at least keeping the Zimbabwean public in touch with the major processes underway. I think it is highly problematic that we will only know what's happened once the deal is signed. I think there should have been a way of keeping Zimbabweans in touch - if not in all the details but at least with the general details or lack of progress in the talks. I think that really was the responsibility of the facilitator himself.

Gonda: And what about the conflicting reports we have been receiving from, mainly, the MDC ? The Tsvangirai MDC spokesperson George Sibotshiwe said talks are deadlocked, but then we heard from Mr Tsvangirai saying he is fairly satisfied with the progress of the talks. What do you read into that?

Raftopoulos: We all knew from the beginning there was going to be major challenges - particularly around the type of government that would come into play, the role of Mugabe himself, the role of Tsvangirai. So we knew these were major problems and I think it is not surprising that there are periods of blockage and decline. But I don't think this will stop the talks. I think the talks will continue. I think there is a lot of pressure to get some kind of agreement. I think it is going to be a messy compromise but I suspect that by next week this time we may have some kind of agreement facing Zimbabweans.

Gonda: Munyaradzi what are your thoughts on how the MDC has been handling things at the talks, are you happy with the way things are going where the MDC is concerned?

Gwisai: Not at all. As I have said they are the ones who really have been done up in this sense. The governing regime here - ZANU PF - clearly the March 29th election showed to what extent it has lost its popular appeal and obviously Mbeki's mediation has been a mess, has been discredited. But the MDC allowing itself to be - that is the MDC Tsvangirai in particular - allowing themselves to be dislocated and be removed from their natural allies in civic society, in labour, in churches, the youth and so forth means they are going into these talks with naïve illusions about what is possible.

I hear what Brian is saying - the pressure for reaching an agreement and so forth - but it is also quite likely that given the arrogance, the intransigence of the regime in Harare that despite the economic collapse there might still be serious difficulties and problems with government keeping its position that they have said are non-negotiable.

So my real worry is the MDC is going into these negotiations without a plan B, without preparations and without mobilisation of its allies as we have seen in other crisis situations. Whereas the Mugabe regime has made clear its preparedness and ability to go for broke if need be - through what we have seen with Bacossi and so forth. The MDC requires a united front but they are allowing themselves to go alone and that to me bodes very ill for a people centred deal coming out of this.

Gonda: So do you think it is too late for the MDC to initiate this plan B and bring on board the civil society and other stakeholders?

Gwisai: No we don't think it's too late. In fact as civic society we have met under the auspices of the group that met under the people's convention and we have made our position very clear. That we believe that these talks must be inclusive and we believe that whatever comes out of them, must result in a Transitional Authority that will ensure bread and butter concerns - because people are suffering, and also a people driven constitution. And we have made it clear that we are stakeholders in this country and we are mobilising our forces in the next couple of weeks for us to be heard and we hope that the MDC will rethink and be able to come back just like they did on 11 March last year, and just like what we have been doing in the last 10 years to come back and work together. And we hope that elites in the MDC especially business elites and other such elites will in fact not scupper those possibilities in favour of a compromised deal with ZANU PF, that does not deliver for the people of Zimbabwe.

Gonda: Petina do you agree that the MDC has gone into these talks without a plan B?

Petina: You know Violet I agree with both Munyaradzi and Brian on this. I agree with Brian that the MDC faced tremendous challenges and really beyond actually going into the negotiating process there was really not much they could do. So as a show of good faith I think it was important that they engage in the process. At the same time there is nothing in the MoU that says all the issues covered by that framework have to be decided within the next two weeks. I think this is the fallacy that we really should penetrate to its essence because there is nothing that prevents the parties, for instance from saying 'yes, we agree on a new constitution and we take that constitution making process out of the negotiation process and put it to the people and we involve people and we engage civil society in coming up with a new constitution. SO I don't really see that there is necessarily a conflict between the MDC engaging in these negotiations and also the participation of civil society. It is simply a question of what then happens, what sort of deal they agree on.

Gonda: What about the civil society's call for a Transitional Authority - how realistic is that especially as the talks are now underway?

Gappah: This is one of the ironies of Zimbabwe . I am one of the people who would definitely agree with this Transitional Authority but we are essentially asking ZANU PF to be a participant in dismantling itself and I am really not sure how successful that particular approach will be. But certainly as a negotiating position I think that is something that the MDC should push for - backed by civil society as Munyaradzi says.

Gonda: And we have talked about the MDC not having a plan B, but what about ZANU PF? What happens to it if the talks fail because it is widely believed that Mugabe realises he needs the MDC to restart the economy?

Gappah: Well, Violet I am not a political analysts that is probably a question for Brian, but my sense of it is that I don't think ZANU PF can survive any real democratic election. There is just no way that it can do that. It has relied so much on violence and intimidation. In a sense we are really, as I said before, we are really asking ZANU PF to be a participant in its own distraction here.

Gonda: And Prof. Can you give us your thoughts on this - I remember interviewing you on our news programme and you were saying ZANU PF is using violence to force the MDC into negotiations. But what's its plan B if negotiations fail?

Raftopoulos: Well, I think what is likely to happen is the economy will get worse and as bad as things are they can get worse, as we have seen in other parts of the continent. Sanctions are likely to be intensified and Zimbabwe may come onto the UN agenda again. So ZANU PF simply doesn't have a strategy to bring the country out of the economic and political crisis on their own. They very much require this negotiated settlement. Of course they could hang on for a certain period but the situation will certainly continue to deteriorate. With regards to the MDC it is clear that going into the negotiations was a correct strategy. I think they had little alternatives to do that.

In terms of plan B, I don't think at this stage that the Zimbabwean populace and the nature of what's happened to our society is capable of carrying out a frontal attack on the Zimbabwean State through mass action strategies. I think that will be highly problematic given the nature of the poverty in the country, the movement of people out of the country, the weakening of the central structures of the civic movement - like the trade unions. So it's likely that plan B will be calls for international and regional pressure on the regime should the negotiations fail.

Gonda: But on the issue of the sanctions that you have just mentioned, it seems there is a growing number of people who feel that sanctions or smart sanctions are a wrong thing. What is your view on this?

Raftopoulos: Look I think that it was important for the sanctions issue to be put on the agenda it is one of the issues that certainly pushed the mediations forward - whether President Mbeki wishes to admit that or not - the threat of sanctions has been something that has had an effect in giving impetus to the discussions. Also I think that ZANU PF needs to know if they continue to spit in the face of Zimbabweans, and if the region is not able to take a stronger position then they will face greater obstacles from the broader international community. So I am not totally negative about the effects of sanctions. I think in some ways they have given an impetus to the negotiations.

Gonda: Munyaradzi do you support the sanctions?

Gwisai: No I must be quite clear on this. To assume that ZANU PF cannot survive over the next couple of months, over the next year or so I think will be a very dangerous conception of what is possible. And in fact I think when you look at what they are doing - the latest policy statement and the Bacossi activities - the reality is they will bunker in and go into a command economy, just like how countries like CUBA and North Korea and others have been able to sustain those regimes and made to sustain themselves under sanctions. And it will also massively increase repression - arguing that it is under siege from the West and the sanctions.

So yes the people of this country are going to suffer much, much more than we have ever seen if this happens. But already what we are seeing is ZANU PF preparing for that possibility if they don't get what they want in these talks. Using the sanctions as a tool, I think, is a very dangerous approach because it simply empowers countries and forces at the global level , who would want a resolution of the Zimbabwean crisis but on their own terms. Whose own intervention in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan has not necessarily brought positive results for the ordinary people. So yes the sanctions are biting and are going to bite more.

I must point out that these talks started after 11 March (07) when in fact a united front activity of the MDC and civic society in Highfields activated action. I have no doubt that given where we are today, given the spirit of resistance we saw in the March 29th election, if the leadership and activists of the main opposition and civic society and the democrats in this country supported by working people in the region and nationally, I believe that the will and the possibility of taking on this regime is there and I think we can fight. We saw women of WOZA coming out this past week. What we now need to do is to do this together and fight for democracy and food.

Gonda: But Munyaradzi if the sanctions hadn't been there do you think Mugabe would be at the negotiating table?

Gwisai: They might have their own effect in the sense but the negotiations that Mugabe does is then designed to respond to the pressures from the West, which could lead to an elitist view. But we must remember that long before sanctions were done in 1997, 1998, 1999 or the March 11 thing in 2007 - the action from below, the stayaways, the general strikes created sufficient pressure to allow Mugabe in fact to accede for instance the demands for a new constitution in 2000. We also saw working class pressure in South Africa with the Chinese arms, managing to stop Mugabe from receiving for some time the arms from China . So I believe the most powerful force and one that will ensure we have a people driven resolution to the Zimbabwean crisis is people to people action and solidarity in Zimbabwe and regionally.

Gonda: And Petina what are your views on the issue of the sanctions?

Gappah: Well, I just wanted to comment on this idea that the economy is what's going to bring ZANU PF down in the end. It's a view I have heard expressed many, many times by people, you know 'Mugabe can rig the elections but he can't rig the economy.' I don't believe that for a minute because as Munyaradzi says there are ways of developing a command economy in such a way that you still manage to 'bunker down' and I suspect that is what we are looking at if these negotiations fail. I am not sure that the economy is going to destroy ZANU PF for us. I think it has to be a combination of factors, it has to be a combination of pressure from the international community, pressure from within Zimbabwe and also the MDC has to try and get absolutely the best deal that it can, because I really think that beyond these negotiations there isn't really a lot of light at the end of this tunnel.

Gonda: And how do you think they should go around this 'stalemate' where we understand that they have agreed on most of the issues on the agenda but that they are stuck on the issue of who should lead this transitional phase.

Gappah: But I will go back to my first contribution in this discussion, I don't really think it's possible for us to comment on what's going on, on the basis of what speculation we read in the press. And without the MDC really informing people and especially the civil society what is going on it is very difficult for us to come up here with models. Do we have an executive Prime Minister? Should Tsvangirai accept a 3rd Vice President? There are all these things that are being talked about and it's very difficult to say what exactly should happen because we really don't know what the models are that are being discussed.

Gonda: From a legal point of view what are your thoughts on the issue of amnesty for Mugabe because the country has been bludgeoned by a few individuals in ZANU PF? And some have said someone should answer for this. Is Justice being traded for unity here?

Gappah: You know Violet that's a really important question and it's something we all have to think about seriously. On the one hand you do not want people to get away with the horrific crimes that they committed, but at the same time we have seen throughout history that sometimes justice has to be traded for peace. And I really don't know where we are going to be after next week on this. And it is actually quite striking that in the MoU itself that item is not a separate item on the agenda. You could argue that you can bring it in through the rule of law clauses but there isn't a single item that talks about justice, that talks about reconciliation. There are all these things about national healing but we really don't know what kind of a commission or whether there is going to be any kind of truth and reconciliation at all. So this is something that again the civil society needs to pressure the MDC on, needs to pressure ZANU PF on.

And I will go back to my earlier contribution when I said that I don't think that this process is necessarily closed to civil society. There are still issues that can be taken out to be discussed within the framework of the nation as a whole.

Gonda: Brian what are your views on amnesty for Mugabe? And also back to what Petina was saying, perhaps this is the reason the civil society should be involved in these talks and actually have some input, because how can political parties be trusted to give attention to things to do with humanitarian issues or human rights concerns?

Raftopoulos: I agree. I think the issue of transitional justice is something that the civil society groups need to be pushing and lobbying for not just now but in the near future. I don't think they are on the negotiating table and what we are likely to see out of this current agreement is another round of immunity for human rights abusers. So we have now a long legacy of this abuse and I think it's something that human rights organisations should take up.

I also want to come back to the question of the kind of factors that will bring about change. I agree that the economy on its own won't be a factor. I think the economy can produce even more repressive conditions. And I think that it will be a combination of national, regional and international factors and that's what we are seeing at play in the negotiations - precisely that combination of forces and unfortunately the weakest part of that combination is the internal social forces and that of course will affect the kind of outcome that comes out of these negotiations.

Gonda: And Munyaradzi what about the military's role in this? It's widely believed the military is in charge of the country - so how effective do you think these talks will be if the military is not directly involved?

Gwisai: Well, I suppose since this is part of the system that Mugabe is running whereby there is a situation that whatever is agreed there, their party is going to be in agreement in terms of consulting each other. We have heard they had their own consultative meeting and so forth. So when you look at ZANU PF now you are looking at a party that has become highly militarised and which is very difficult to distinguish between ZANU PF the political party and institutions of the State, in particular the military. So they are operating as a combined team, as a combined force.

Which goes back to my argument that no single force, no single party in the democratic political and civil movement is going to be able to take on such a force on its own. It can only be on a united front. But also that raises the issues that were also discussed by the other comrades about the issue of amnesty. I think Brian is dead right, if we leave this whole thing to politicians alone - as is the case right now - their concern is just going to be about sharing power and sharing benefits and for their own sponsors in terms of business and capitalist classes that back them.

But we are not creating a ground and a basis for a democratic society that ensures that those who perpetuate and perpetrates human rights violations are brought to justice and so forth. So whilst I would say that as part of a comprehensive holistic deal you could look at those issues but equally we demand as civil society - there are serious issues of compensation, there are serious issues of victims being given a reconciliation process in which they are able to have their matters raised and the perpetrators also showing remorse and so forth. So it has to be a holistic process before you grant that process. But ultimately at the end of the day what we require now is to put into place structures that ensure proper democratic governance in this country as well as economic justice for the poor and ordinary people in this country.

Gonda: And a final word Petina?

Gappah: I agree with everything that Munyaradzi has said. He is absolutely right.

Gonda: Brian?

Raftopoulos: Obviously the military are a key factor in the ZANU PF strategy. They are at the centre of Mugabe's power that any agreement that comes out of there will have to have the go ahead of the military. At the same time the military are the key problem in the negotiations so it's something of a paradox and a challenge for the current mediator.

Gonda: And Munyaradzi final word.

Gwisai: Well, all we can say is to encourage people of Zimbabwe that they came out in March - so the fight must continue. As civil society we are calling for national, regional and international protests in the next few weeks if not days. Details will be coming out. We must not give up. The time for salvation is arriving. Thank you.

Gonda: Thank you Munyaradzi Gwisai, Petina Gappah and Professor Brian Raftopoulos for taking part in the programme Hot Seat.

*Comments and feedback can be emailed to violet@swradioafrica.com

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