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A false dawn for Zimbabwe
South Africa Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR)
August 01, 2008

http://www.sairr.org.za/sairr-today/sairr-today-a-false-dawn-for-zimbabwe-1st-august-2008.html

There has been much speculation in the media that the Zimbabwe negotiations taking place between the MDC and ZANU-PF in Pretoria herald a new dawn for that country. But the talks, and their success or failure, are falsely heralded as breakthrough in Zimbabwe's crisis as the problems and challenges Zimbabwe face are now as much about economics and social conditions as they once were about politics. Improving those conditions may take decades regardless of who runs the country.

There is in odd sense in the media reporting surrounding the talks that they may somehow relieve the crisis in Zimbabwe. Reading some of the reporting the implication is made that were the talks to succeed then Zimbabwe could immediately look forward to better and more prosperous times. While a change of government will relieve the worst excesses of the current Mugabe government it is unlikely that social and economic conditions will show a rapid turnaround. A view is also perpetrated that inflows of foreign aid and investment would be sufficient to undo much of the damage done to Zimbabwe's economy. But these rosy analyses are misleading in that they are swift to overlook the major structural damage done to Zimbabwe's economy.

A priority faced by any future Zimbabwe government will be recapitalising that country's infrastructure and its economy. But Zimbabwe holds little strategic economic importance other than its mineral assets - which too an extent are already capitalised and exploited. It is doubtful whether a future government will be able to attract the levels of private capital inflows necessary to recapitalise. The new government will therefore find itself dependent on Western-backed international finance and monetary institutions. But the track record of these groups in boosting African development has been limited.

A second priority will be recapitalising Zimbabwe's human resources. An outflow of 3 million young and often skilled Zimbabweans to other countries including the UK, South Africa, and Botswana has left the economy largely unskilled. Many of these emigrants will not return home unless they are assured of the standard of living and economic opportunities they enjoy in foreign countries. This will mean that the most skilled will be the least likely to return. This will serve as a further disincentive to capital inflows in Zimbabwe.

A third priority will be re-establishing sound economic fundamentals in Zimbabwe. This will include indicators like the exchange rate and inflation which have driven Zimbabwe to become a barter economy. With inflation and exchange rates in the millions and billions this is a task that will not be easily achieved without private capital inflows and skilled human resources.

These three priorities do not even take into account reforming the now corrupt and partisan judiciary, police, army, intelligence services, and various militias. Nor do they take into account the tasks of rebuilding the health and education sectors and various other government departments. The agricultural sector, once the mainstay of the economy, has become a political hot potato and it is unclear whether the MDC will have the courage to return commercial farms to their rightful owners which is essential if food production is to increase. Nor is it certain that those commercial farmers will accept the risks associated with their profession in Zimbabwe.

Without capital inflows and human resources Zimbabwe will probably not recover fully for decades to come. Even with these inflows Zimbabwe may become a grossly unequal society with a small elite presiding over a largely poor and rural population. As was partly the case in South Africa the joy accompanying any change of government will evaporate as the economic challenges faced by that government come into relief. If that government turns out be corrupt, or ineffective, or driven by ideology - as is true of the ANC government in South Africa - then the recovery period will be further prolonged.

It is therefore quite unlikely that any recovery will be managed successfully by any incumbent Zimbabwe government with resources and skills available domestically in that country. A future Zimbabwe will therefore be largely dependent on Western and Chinese interests. In purportedly fighting for his country's independence all that Robert Mugabe has achieved is to mortgage his legacy to highest foreign bidder. Newspaper reporting is, to the contrary, naïve and shows a serious failure to grasp fundamental political and economic facts. It is a lesson that South Africa would also be wise to learn - that years of political mismanagement cannot simply be corrected by negotiation or a change of government.

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