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After the storm, the stalemate
The Economist
July 10, 2008

http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11708259

There were more harsh words for Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, this week, as well as more promises of tough action against his regime following his re-election in a sham one-man run-off on June 27th. But, equally, there was also more evidence that the world remains divided—and often bitterly so—on what to do about him. The only person who profits from these divisions is Mr Mugabe himself.

The Zimbabwean impasse figured high on the agenda of the G8 gathered in Japan. Prompted mainly by Britain's prime minister, Gordon Brown, the rich-countries' club, including Russia, heavily criticized the Zimbabwean election, saying that they would not accept the "legitimacy" of Mr Mugabe's new government. The G8 promised to take "further steps" against 13 of Mr Mugabe's inner circle who are responsible for organizing most of the violence in the country. Targeted sanctions and an arms embargo were expected to be proposed at the UN Security Council. Some African countries, such as Botswana and Nigeria, also condemned the election. It is unfortunate that Zambia's president, Levy Mwanawasa, suffered a debilitating stroke last week; he had become one of Mr Mugabe's most effective critics.

But, again, several African countries objected to any further sanctions; South Africa's president Thabo Mbeki said that sanctions could lead to a civil war in Zimbabwe. And, despite Russia's apparent show of unity at the G8, neither it nor China could be relied upon to back a strong resolution on sanctions at the UN. It is a familiar split. Instead, these countries insist that Mr Mbeki's mediation efforts between Mr Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) be given more time to succeed—a process that some Western leaders have now lost patience with.

Both sides say that they want to talk. But their positions still appear irreconcilable. The MDC insists that it will not participate in any proper negotiations unless violence stops, political prisoners are released, those who have fled violence are repatriated and humanitarian assistance is allowed to resume. Having lost faith in Mr Mbeki, the MDC also wants a full-time mediator from the African Union. It has rejected the idea of a government of national unity, but advocates a transitional administration based on the results of the first round of voting on March 29th—which it won—leading towards fresh elections. Mr Mugabe, for his part, insists that the opposition recognise his flawed re-election.

A plan floated by Mr Mbeki before the run-off, which would leave Mr Mugabe as a ceremonial head of state and give the opposition executive power, appears to have little chance of success. The South African president, eager to show some progress in his faltering shuttle diplomacy, flew to Harare on July 5th and met Mr Mugabe and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a small MDC splinter party. This raised some hopes. But the MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, resisting pressure from Mr Mbeki, stood his ground and refused to participate. Mr Mutambara later said that he attended the talks only because he thought Mr Tsvangirai was going to be there as well; Mr Mutambara insists that there will be no deal without the main MDC group.

In the meantime, political violence shows no sign of abating. According to the MDC, at least 20 activists have been killed since the run-off, bringing the total of confirmed deaths since the first round in March to over 100. Dozens of opposition supporters are still missing and 1,500 or so remain behind bars. This week, the body of an MDC driver abducted in Harare last month was finally found, burned and decomposing on a farm about 30km outside the capital. He had been tortured before being shot. Armed militias were also reported to have attacked two camps near Harare where people fleeing the violence had taken refuge after seeking shelter in the South African embassy.

Mr Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF also appears determined to reverse the majority that the opposition won in the National Assembly for the first time since the country's independence in 1980. Besides results being contested in court, nine lawmakers from Mr Tsvangirai's camp have been arrested or abducted since the first round of voting. The combined opposition holds 110 seats against ZANU-PF's 97.

Mr Mugabe is unlikely to relent unless under serious, concerted pressure. But, as usual, it is hard to see exactly where that is going to come from. Even now, the wily Zimbabwean liberation hero seems to be outwitting his rivals, mediators and enemies in almost equal measure.

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