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'Breaking the political impasse in Zimbabwe'
Bulawayo Agenda
July 04, 2008

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Introduction
The protracted conflict in Zimbabwe between the ruling elite and the democratic forces has taken a heavy toll in terms of loss of human life, economic meltdown and erosion of its democratic credentials. Contrary to the pontification of the Mugabe administration presenting itself as a victim of the Western conspiracies, the events of the past few months have shown that the 'emperor has no clothes' after all. In the bid to reclaim what was lost in the March 29 election, the regime threw all caution to the wind and went on a killing spree. Arguably, the current situation in Zimbabwe can only be described as a 'complex political emergency'. It is an incontrovertible fact that the Mugabe regime is struggling to survive against the torrential wave of public anger. Its preferred method of survival defies all trappings of democracy. The opposition pulled out of the Presidential runoff citing a constellation of factors inter alia the hydra of violence meted against its supporters, hostile electoral environment and the uneven playing field. Contemporaneously, a number of African countries finally seem to appreciate the problems the country is facing. In fact, the 'one man election' has been described as shameful and illegitimate. As the drama of the presidential runoff result unfolds, it is critical for the African leaders, with support from the wider international community, to step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis. People's expectations and demands for change have heightened and profound uncertainty about what form change would take has raised the political stakes for all concerned. The gestation period has taken longer than optimists had hoped. It is therefore, the object of this discussion paper to inspire the debate on the strategic options for the breaking of the mutually hurting electoral logjam thereby ushering in a new constitutional, political and economic dispensation.

Façade of democratic legitimacy
The contemporary world is increasingly becoming a democratic one, where even tyrants are required to go through the exercise of multicandidate and multiparty elections to preserve a semblance of domestic and international legitimacy. The pull out by Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition candidate, from the runoff elections rested on popular hopes of shattering the regime's facade of democratic legitimacy thereby triggering a process that would eventually lead to genuine elections. Thus, the opposition bravely and unambiguously expressed its position which aimed at denying an iota of legitimacy to the Mugabe administration and this has resonated very well with the broad spectrum of the population in Zimbabwe. Predictably, the insistence by Zanu PF to continue with the runoff election, and consequently declare Mr Mugabe as a winner, has been met with widespread condemnation from the region and internationally. The decision to continue with the elections was a leap in the dark, an action that was as ruinous to Zimbabwe's political gains as was the violence that had embedded itself in the regime. It was a blow beneath the belt for democracy. Subsequently, Mr Mugabe faces a hostile parliament, growing public discontent, mounting international pressure and increased isolation. The consequences of his staying in office would be catastrophic, not least that the economic decline would intensify, with more Zimbabweans fleeing across borders while inflation plummets to unprecedented levels. Appropriate regional and international action must be taken against the rogue regime. Examples of such actions would be declaring his government illegitimate, tightening existing targeted sanctions on known hardliners and establishing a Security Council Commission to investigate reports of torture, murder and widespread violations of human rights.

African Union resolutions on Zimbabwe
The 11th African Union (AU) summit at the Egyptian Red Sea resort on 1 July adopted a resolution supporting the creation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) for Zimbabwe through dialogue. The text also expressed support to the SADC facilitation process on the issue while calling for continued mediation efforts in order to assist the people and leadership of Zimbabwe to resolve its problems. The resolution further appealed to states and all parties concerned to refrain from any action that may negatively impact on the climate of dialogue.

In the resolution, the AU expressed confidence that the people of Zimbabwe will be able to resolve their differences and work together once again as a nation, provided they received undivided support from SADC, the AU and the world at large. As a result of the tense situation in Zimbabwe, the African Union (AU) decided on a Government of National Unity (GNU) as the ideal mechanism for conflict resolution to the Zimbabwean crisis.

Instead of condemnations, the Union's leaders gently urged Mugabe to engage in some sort of power-sharing agreement with Morgan Tsvangirai, along the lines of a deal that ended violence in Kenya earlier this year. While the AU is lauded for its efforts, though feeble, to end the political impasse in Zimbabwe, its prescriptive approach to the crisis will unfortunately lead to a further complication of the crisis than transformation. The 'copy and paste' solution will prove disastrous for Africa in general and for Zimbabwe in particular.

The Kofi Anan GNU solution imposed on Kenya has set a dangerous political precedence for despots and dictators on the continent. Unpopular regimes such as the Kibaki and Mugabe administrations have found means of survival through a GNU against the will of their populations. The GNU that was pushed by Kofi Annan in Kenya stopped the violence by pacifying the various political players through rewarding them with political posts.

The Government of National Unity only served to silence the guns but did not address the fundamental grievances of the masses. While in the interim, the GNU approach may seem to be an easy panacea to the crisis, in the mid and long terms the crisis will indeed resurface. With regards to Zimbabwe, it should be noted that any conflict resolution approach should be guided by the outcome of the March 2008 harmonized election result which demonstrated the will of the people of Zimbabwe. The struggle in Zimbabwe is not of power but for democracy. The AU diagnosis of the Zimbabwe problem is flawed and its prescription poisonous. This simply means that a power-sharing deal as signified by the Kenyan model is not only inappropriate but also retrogressive for Zimbabwe. The African leaders should refrain from rewarding regimes which cling to power through violence and undemocratic means. It is on record that Mugabe's administration was fraudulently elected hence the solution to Zimbabwe crisis should comprise measures that shall allow for the preparations of a truly democratic process of constituting a government.

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