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Zimbabwe's unsure political future
Star (SA)
May 23, 2008

http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=18829

President Robert Mugabe remains in untrammeled power until the presidential run-off election, which is now due on June 27. And if that run-off happens and he wins it, he will retain most of his power for the next five years, even though parliament will be controlled by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Such are the powers of the presidency in Zimbabwe's mutilated constitution. Mugabe came second to the MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai in the March 29 presidential election. But because Tsvangirai did not win an outright majority of more than 50% - at least not officially - he has to face Mugabe again in a run-off election. Mugabe is governing until then without legislative control, because the Zanu PF-dominated Parliament was dissolved before the March 29 elections and the new MDC-dominated Parliament will not be constituted until a president has been duly elected.

When the results of the run-off election are released, the new president must be sworn into office by the chief justice within 48 hours. The present cabinet, which Mugabe appointed at the last general election in 2005, also stays in office until the new president is sworn in. If Mugabe wins the run-off, he can appoint a wholly Zanu PF cabinet, even though it will be from the minority party in the House of Assembly. In theory having a Zanu PF president and an MDC-controlled parliament could be unworkable. But, in reality, there is only one task Mugabe needs parliament for, and that is to pass the budget. So his minister of finance would write the budget and present it to parliament. The majority party, the MDC, could presumably re-write it and then pass its version. But Mugabe could in turn refuse to sign it and it would sit in limbo for six months.

The MDC could then try and persuade enough Zanu PF MPs to vote with it, to attain the two thirds majority which the constitution requires for Parliament to override the presidential veto. But Mugabe could, if he wants, just avoid the legislative budget process altogether. He could raise money to pay the civil service via central bank governor Gideon Gono, who continually bypasses the constitution to ensure Zanu PF and Mugabe retain control. Gono began to take over the responsibilities of the ministry of finance when he was appointed by Mugabe in late 2003. He does what he likes, when he likes, with public money, from buying tractors for Zanu PF, to approving arms from China. If all else failed, Mugabe could simply overrule parliament any time he wanted to, using the Presidential Powers Temporary Measures Act, which allows him to rule by decree for six months at a time.

He appoints the judges, the overwhelming majority of whom are not only widely seen by the legal fraternity as incompetent but also respect (or fear) Mugabe more than they respect the law. He would also appoint the attorney general, a powerful official. On matters other than the budget, Mugabe will be able to use the Senate to good effect. On March 29, the MDC and Zanu PF each won 30 senate seats and 18 traditional leaders - likely to be sympathetic to Mugabe - have already been appointed. Before the elections, the electoral laws were amended to remove 30 presidential appointees from parliament (the lower house, or assembly). But these were then effectively transferred to the Senate, the upper house. If he wins the run-off, Mugabe would also appoint 10 provincial governors who would take ex-officio seats in Senate, alongside five other presidential appointees.

The Senate may delay all legislation - except the budget - for 90 days, and when that period expires, Mugabe can anyway then refuse to sign any bill. But, of course, if Morgan Tsvangirai wins the run-off, he will inherit all these powers from Mugabe and the boot will be very firmly on the other foot. Hence the importance of being president. If he won, Tsvangirai would control the Senate as he would appoint the provincial governors and enough chiefs would probably fall in line to prevent the Senate from blocking his legislation. His first job would then be to appoint a cabinet and draft a budget. He would not be able to change the present constitution without a two-thirds majority, for which he would need Zanu PF help. He would have the power to re-appoint or sack and replace the service chiefs, but would very likely negotiate this very carefully for fear of facing a mutiny. These are just some of the scenarios in Zimbabe's unpredictable future.

Another is that ahead of the run-off Mugabe might win back parliament with the help of the first Electoral Court with its 22 new judges, mostly Mugabe loyalists, who will hear 53 challenges from Zanu PF and 52 from the MDC to the March 29 parliamentary elections. These cases would not prevent elected MPs and senators from taking their seats, but they could eventually reverse the MDC's parliamentary victory. On the face of it, Tsvangirai should win the run-off election. He scored 115 832 votes more than Mugabe on March 29. Running on an anti-Mugabe ticket, former Zanu PF politburo member and finance minister Simba Makoni won 207 470 votes, mostly in two rural Matabeleland provinces, from supporters of the smaller MDC party, (the MDC split in 2005) led by Arthur Mutambara. Now Mutambara's activists say the Makoni alliance was a mistake and they only went for it because their bid for reunification was rejected by Tsvangirai. These MPs say they would not only ensure all Matabeleland votes for Tsvangirai, but will re-activate many more MDC supporters who stayed away on March 29 muddled by the Makoni factor. Those votes should give Morgan Tsvangirai at least 323 392 votes more than Mugabe, or about 56% of the vote.

But will Zanu PF's terror campaign frighten off enough voters to enable Mugabe to beat Tsvangirai? Will the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which appointed President Mbeki in March 2007 to mediate Zanu PF-MDC negotiations, properly fulfil its mandate by ensuring a peaceful and fair run-off election? It doesn't look hopeful at present. That is why many analysts and observers are calling for some sort of transitional power-sharing arrangement between Zanu PF and the MDC to negotiate conditions for a peaceful and fair election. But the likelihood of that happening fades with each day. The persistent problem that bedevils that option is who would be top dog in a power-sharing administration? It is impossible to imagine Mugabe conceding supremacy to his hated rival Tsvangirai. Likewise Tsvangirai has said that he is prepared to consider such a deal - but not if Mugabe remained in charge. So Zimbabwe's political future looks ever more uncertain as the political violence continues unabated and warnings of impending civil war grow louder.

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