Back to Index

This article participates on the following special index pages:

Negotiating Zimbabwe's transition
International Crisis Group
May 21, 2008

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5446&l=1

Download this document
- Acrobat PDF version (162KB)
If you do not have the free Acrobat reader on your computer, download it from the Adobe website by clicking here.

Violence in Zimbabwe is likely to escalate and could lead to a military coup or martial law unless African and other international leaders help negotiate a government of national unity led by Morgan Tsvangirai.

Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, warns that hardliners in President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party, including senior military leaders, are trying to retain power by force. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won the 29 March election with a parliamentary majority and probably more than 50 per cent of the presidential vote. If a reasonably free and fair presidential run-off can be held as scheduled on 27 June, he would almost certainly beat Mugabe again. The ZANU-PF sponsored violence against the opposition and its supporters is aimed to prevent that from happening.

"Given the level of violence, there seems almost no way to hold a credible second-round vote", says Francois Grignon, Crisis Group's Africa Program Director. "All parties should still aim for this in the best conditions possible, but a negotiated solution between ZANU-PF and the MDC should be the higher priority, since it is far likelier to resolve the crisis peacefully".

For the first time, Mugabe came second in the March presidential vote, and the opposition won parliament. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a country-wide crackdown.

The African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) called for the release of the results and criticised the violence, but SADC's chief negotiator, South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, has continued to shield Mugabe. Still, since the impact of outspoken, Western-driven diplomacy is likely to be limited, African-led mediation, with wider international backing, gives the best chance for a peaceful and definitive resolution to the crisis, and South Africa cannot simply be sidelined.

The mediation should secure an agreement between the MDC and ZANU-PF that removes the need for a run-off, with its risks of greater violence, and obtain guarantees for security service loyalty to an MDC-led administration. Whether in a negotiated agreement on a transitional government or after winning the run-off and a full presidential term, Tsvangirai should reach out to his foes and form a government that includes ZANU-PF moderates. The former ruling party will need to accept junior partner status.

Zimbabwe will require a transitional justice mechanism at some stage to come to terms with its history, but the present settlement must also provide security guarantees for Mugabe, the military and others. However unpalatable they are to both sides, these several political compromises are essential if the country is to escape its long nightmare.

"If the hardliners retain their power through violence and/or fraud, African and other states and the Security Council will need to treat the regime as illegitimate and take other appropriate measures. However, with strong African-led mediation, concerted wider international backing and political will from both the MDC and moderate elements of ZANU-PF, a solution can be found to this crisis", says Andebrhan Giorgis, Crisis Group's Africa Senior Adviser.

Download full document 

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP