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Delay and deception
The Guardian (UK)
April 22, 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/22/zimbabwe.southafrica?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews

Robert Mugabe's strategy for staying in power after losing the popular vote is painfully clear, even to those of his supporters - such as the South African president, Thabo Mbeki - who look the other way. First, it is to delay the announcement of the election results by yet another week. Three weeks have now passed since the election was held in Zimbabwe, but as the Herald, the regime's mouthpiece, said yesterday, more time is needed to recount 23 contested parliamentary seats. "A lot of work is involved," the newspaper said, with no irony intended.

It is not just a matter of breaking and entering, although there is plenty of that going on with the ballot boxes, according to Dianne Kohler-Barnard, the South African member of the observer team. Time is also needed for assault and battery. The aim is to frighten the wits out of anyone who voted against Zanu-PF in the rural areas. This is the second arm of Mr Mugabe's strategy, and just because it is cruder than the first does not mean it is any less effective. Intimidation comes from the top. The health minister, Dr David Parirenyatwa, brandished a Kalashnikov at a meeting in which he threatened to kill opposition supporters if they dared to vote for the Movement for Democratic Change in the second round.

A fresh assault on white farmers has developed into an extensive campaign of beatings, intimidation and torture in provinces such as Mashonaland East and Masvingo where Zanu-PF lost ground three weeks ago. As Human Rights Watch reported over the weekend, torture and violence are surging in detention centres set up in opposition constituencies. Tendai Biti, the MDC secretary general, said 10 people had been killed, 500 injured and 3,000 displaced. If past experience is anything to go by, the thugs will run rampage until the second round runoff is called and then vanish overnight. By the time election monitors reappear, peace will have returned to the rural constituencies but the damage will have been done.

While the Zanu-PF strategy is clear, what is less certain is how much longer the rest of southern Africa is prepared to tolerate it. There are large fissures opening up on the ground on which Mr Mbeki stands. The African National Congress, under its new leader, Jacob Zuma, has broken with the South African president over his handling of Mr Mugabe. This has emboldened the MDC's leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, to call for Mr Mbeki to stand down as mediator for the Southern African Development Community in favour of Zambia's president, Levy Mwanawasa, who wants Mr Mugabe out. The SADC itself is split. Zambia, Botswana and Malawi are pushing for a hard line against Mr Mugabe. Mozambique, Angola and South Africa have thus far resisted.

A second-round runoff between Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai would provide the acid test of the SADC's new-found resolve. If it insists that the runoff is fully transparent, that Zimbabwe is flooded with observers, and that the whole process is monitored from start to finish, it can still ensure a fair result. Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary general, has no formal standing in this dispute, but has emerged from his successful mediation in Kenya with the stature to help solve the crisis in Zimbabwe. Both the African Union and the UN could also be involved in monitoring.

Mr Tsvangirai has given contradictory statements on whether he would contest a second round; there are two reasons why he should. First, by his own contested figures, he only just won the election in the first round, and it would look as if he were running away if he refused to participate. Second, he could still win if he is allowed to campaign in the rural areas. He would be relying on the fact that desperation overcomes fear, and that everyone knows that the regime is finished. It is a big risk, but the prize of a peaceful transition is even bigger.

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