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This article participates on the following special index pages:
2008 harmonised elections - Index of articles
Examining
the popular and presidential choice - hiding or run off?
Idasa
April 10, 2008
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While the world waits
anxiously for the announcement of the Presidential Elections in
Zimbabwe, it seems to pay less and less attention to the results
that have been already revealed and their implications - not
only for how they will affect the political terrain in Zimbabwe
and the SADC region, but also for what can be deduced about the
occluded Presidential results.
Methodology
This was an
unusual election in Zimbabwe in several ways. Firstly, the actual
results have been made available, courtesy of the requirement under
the Electoral
Act to post results on the outside of every polling station,
as well as constituency command posts. This was required under the
previous Act, but ignored in the 2005 election. This meant that
accurate results could be obtained for every constituency, as well
as for every type of poll - Presidential, House of Assembly,
Senate, and Local Government, and has changed the nature of this
election immeasurably.
Secondly, there
were a number of independent measures of the ZEC results based on
the results posted outside polling stations. The activist group
Sokwanele
published the findings of Parallel Voter Tabulation [PVT] for 118
constituencies for the House of Assembly results by the time of
going to press. ZESN
(the Zimbabwe Election Support Network) has also been collecting
the posted results, but all that was available by the time of going
to press was the ZESN Parallel Voter Tabulation [PVT] findings for
the Presidential Election.
Thus, for the present
report, we are able to test the veracity of the ZEC results for
the House of Assembly against the PVT produced by Sokwanele only.
However, we are also able to test the House of Assembly results
against the Senate results reported by ZEC. If the ZEC figures are
shown to be reliable against the PVT count, then the full ZEC figures
for the House of Assembly and Senate can be used with some confidence
to make deductions about the presidential poll.
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