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Mugabe's loyalty test
Clemence Manyukwe and Charles Rukuni , Financial Gazette (Zimbabwe)
February 21, 2008

http://www.fingaz.co.zw/story.aspx?stid=2237

President Robert Mugabe last week tested the loyalty of senior Zanu PF officials said to back Simba Makoni by approaching each one of them to sign his nomination papers that were submitted to the Nomination Court last Friday, The Financial Gazette can reveal. The law requires a presidential candidate's nomination to be signed by at least 10 people in each of the country's 10 provinces. Anxious about reports that some of his most senior lieutenants, disillusioned with his decision to stand for another term, secretly supported Makoni, President Mugabe had each of the key figures said to be plotting his downfall specifically approached to put down their signatures to endorse his candidacy. Vice President Joice Mujuru, Mashonaland East governor Ray Kaukonde and Zanu PF national chairman John Nkomo are among those who signed the nomination papers.

Sources said politburo members Dumiso Dabengwa and Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, the Information Minister, were also approached. However, they declined to affix their signatures to the nomination papers, in the latest show of defiance. Zanu PF stalwarts in Matabeleland, angered by the President's alliance with war veterans' leader Jabulani Sibanda, have opted not to run in the polls. Nkomo, Dabengwa, Bulawayo governor and resident minister Cain Mathema, former cabinet minister Angeline Masuku, and Vice President Joseph Msika, are not seeking election, despite new legislation curtailing President Mugabe's authority to appoint non-constituent legislators to the House of Assembly. The President no longer appoints non-elected members to the lower house, although he can still make six non-constituency Senate appointments. It is widely expected that Msika will take one these six seats.

"To establish where people stand, it was directed that politburo and central committee members in each province should sign. They were effectively being asked to state in writing that they were dumping Makoni and sticking with (President) Mugabe. What better way to do that than by signing your name on the President's nomination form," a source said. "Between now and election day, none of these will come out and back Makoni. We are likely to see more and more of them rallying behind (President) Mugabe." This week, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission declined to release the list of people who had nominated presidential candidates, saying the documents were "confidential". In a related development, President Mugabe's backers have employed a media campaign to smoke out his rivals, approaching each of Makoni's reported backers to compel them to publicly declare their allegiances.

This week, Kaukonde was quoted in The Herald as distancing himself from Makoni. Last week, Manicaland governor Tinaye Chigudu was forced into making similar remarks, although a Herald columnist at the weekend doubted his sincerity. Last week, Makoni submitted his papers to the Nomination Court as an independent candidate to challenge his former boss, in a poll also contested by Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Reports have consistently suggested that Makoni has the backing of a Zanu PF faction led by Solomon Mujuru. At the weekend, state media sought to counter revelations made by Makoni, in an interview with The Financial Gazette last week, that he had told President Mugabe during their meeting on January 21 that there was growing pressure within Zanu PF for fresh leadership.

Analysts said the failure by Zanu PF heavyweights in Matabeleland to stand in primary elections would pose headaches for President Mugabe. Zanu PF officials in Bulawayo confirmed that Vice-President Msika, Nkomo and Dabengwa were not contesting but could not explain why. There has been widespread speculation that all three had been expecting that a new party, the United Front, would be formed to challenge President Mugabe. The formation of the front, however, collapsed because both factions of the MDC were not prepared to accept someone without a party structure to lead them. Supporters of Morgan Tsvangirai had vowed that they would not vote if he was not the leader of any new political formation while those from the Mutambara faction wanted a united front after the elections with everyone bringing what he or she had to the bargaining table.

While Makoni was widely expected to lead the united front, some people in Bulawayo were lobbying for Dabengwa to lead it because of his liberation credentials. Makoni was forced to go it alone as an independent candidate. He was expelled from the ruling party a week after announcing that he would contest the presidential elections but still insists he is a member of Zanu PF. This has sparked speculation that some Zanu PF candidates contesting parliamentary elections, especially in constituencies where there are two party candidates, are backing Makoni. MDC die-hards, however, insist Makoni is a Zanu PF decoy brought in to give the elections some credibility after the opposition had threatened to boycott the polls. Makoni says he is not aligned to anyone. The presidential elections are a four-way race pitting Makoni, Tsvangirai, President Mugabe and little known Langton Towungana.

Sources within Zanu PF said there were a number of reasons why Msika, Nkomo and Dabengwa had opted not to contest the elections. One of the main reasons was that each one knew he could not win. Another was that it was better for them to sit on the fence, as they would benefit from either a Mugabe or a Makoni win because they had not abandoned President Mugabe but were, at the same time, sympathetic to Makoni. Either of the two could accommodate them, if they won, because the president still had the right to appoint six candidates as senators. "Msika did not have to contest as he did not want the humiliation of being defeated by a junior," a party insider said. "Apart from fearing defeat, Nkomo did not have to contest because he is national chairman. He might lose the post of Speaker, but he will remain national chairman. More importantly he will remain in the Presidium and would therefore be dictating what happens in Parliament until at least the 2009 party congress. Dabengwa too is happy just being in the politburo. What they don't want is to face humiliation by their juniors."

Some of the senior Zanu PF officials from Bulawayo have entered the race despite having been beaten in the last two elections. Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu is pitted against long time rival Milton Gwetu, who has already beaten him twice in Mpopoma. Obert Mpofu, the Industry and International Trade Minister, who won in 2005 has stayed put in Umguza while Sithembiso Nyoni, a perennial loser, has shifted to a rural constituency in Nkayi. The toughest and most interesting battle in Bulawayo, however, will be between Thokozani Khupe and Welshman Ncube who will fight it out in Makokoba. Khupe is the vice-President of the Tsvangirai faction while Ncube, who most people believe is the de facto leader of the Mutambara faction, is the faction's secretary-general.

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