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Thabo Mbeki Flies in as Zimbabwe peacemaker
Jan Raath in Harare and Jonathan Clayton, The Times (UK)
January 17, 2008

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3206897.ece

Johannesburg - President Mbeki of South Africa flew into Harare yesterday amid reports of an imminent deal between President Mugabe and the Zimbabwean opposition to end the country's political and economic crisis.

Mr Mbeki, who was mandated last year to try to mediate a solution to a crisis threatening the stability of the entire southern African region, arrived to find the country's opposition in an unexpectedly defiant mood.

Both factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have called for mass rallies and marches to demand a postponement of presidential and parliamentary elections that Mr Mugabe scheduled unilaterally for March.

"It's as if they were inspired by [opposition leader] Raila Odinga's call to the streets in Kenya," a Western envoy said. Political analysts in Southern Africa, however, voiced scepticism over reports of a breakthrough.

"What we are seeing here is classic spin. The fact is Mugabe won't give up real power and that is what needs to be done to make progress," one Johannesburg-based regional expert said. Mr Mugabe, who is 83 next month and has ruled since independence in 1980, has vowed to run for another five-year term despite human rights abuses and a ruined economy that has sent millions of Zimbabweans to seek a living in neighbouring countries. Annual inflation is now officially higher than 8,000 per cent.

Diplomats in Harare agreed that Mr Mbeki's assurances to Bertie Ahern, the Irish Prime Minister, in Pretoria this week that a deal was "within days" would prove unfounded.

After nine months of talks overseen by Mr Mbeki, the ruling Zanu (PF) party and delegations from the two MDC factions have inched towards an accord on a new constitution and reforms to electoral, security and media laws. The talks stalled in October, when the MDC factions demanded that a new constitution be introduced before the elections and rejected most of the reforms as cosmetic. Last weekend Mr Mbeki, who announced this month that he was taking personal charge of the talks, broke the deadlock when he called negotiators from the ruling party and the MDC factions to Pretoria to restart discussions.

The MDC has declared that it will hold a march in Harare next Wednesday to press demands for a postponement of the elections, risking a repeat of the brutal suppression meted out by police last year to Mr Mugabe's opponents. Among the concessions granted by Mr Mugabe has been a law effectively allowing public demonstrations.

The MDC is taking Mr Mugabe at his word. "Our march is a statement against a failed state," said Tendai Biti, secretary-general of the MDC faction led by Morgan Tsvangirai, the former trade union leader. "We have to test the sincerity of Zanu (PF)."

Yesterday armoured cars and Israeli-made police water cannon vehicles were patrolling the streets of Harare.

Civic groups indicated recently that Mr Mugabe had already put in place conditions for an election as contrived as the last three he has fought - and won - since 2000. One of Mr Mugabe's tricks has been to manipulate the voters' roll to pour thousands of ruling party worker into opposition strongholds. His regime also retains control of television and radio and an "independent" electoral commission is packed with Zanu (PF) stalwarts.

From today the central bank will be issuing Zimbabwe dollar notes to the value of one million, five million and ten million. The biggest note is worth about £1.70 on the black market, the only real measure of the currency's value, and can buy ten bananas. Cash is in short supply because prices have been going up faster than the central bank has been able to print money.

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