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US officials warn against 'anyone but Mugabe' approach
Trevor Grundy
October 11, 2007

An American academic representing the influential New York-based political think-tank, the Council on Foreign Relations, has warned politicians and businessmen seeking change in Zimbabwe not to fall into the trap of personalizing their concerns and ending up embracing an "anyone but Mugabe" approach to the future.

Speaking at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, the International Affairs Fellow, Michelle Gavin, said that such an attitude could lead to all the old ruling party actors staying on the stage while high risk investors snap up valuable assets while the pickings are dirt cheap.

Speaking at an important gathering of diplomats, businessmen, journalists and human rights activists at Chatham House alongside the respected Zimbabwean academic and military expert Knox Chitiyo, Gavin said that Mugabe's government might be able to pull off a few more stop-gap measures to bring in foreign exchange and extend his extensive patronage network. "But his rule cannot persist indefinitely. I'm not going to put money on the table and say when it will end but what we see now is part of the increased un-sustainability of the economy." She said the USA had work to do to restore its poor image in Africa and suggested the launching of a trust that would stimulate debate about a future, democractic, Zimbabwe.

Gavin suggested that, because there are so many young people in Zimbabwe, a national agenda and a youth agenda would amount to roughly the same thing. "Over 70 percent of all Zimbabweans are under the age of 30 so any kind of lasting reform or economic revival is going to have to take a youth agenda as the national agenda and this means getting serious about job creation on a massive scale, thinking through how to address the fact that many Zimbabwean youth have now been socialised in a kind of political violence that does not translate well to a stable democracy down the road."

She warned that getting rid of Mugabe and replacing him with someone from the same style of politics would not benefit ordinary people. And there would also be a need to re-professionalise the security forces, something that might not prove popular in the USA. She lamented the fact that American public attention was fickle and paid attention to Zimbabwe only when there were big stories in the papers. "It's a little like Burma," she said. "When the front page stories fade, so does a lot of the high profile focus and attention." Knox Chitiyo praised Gavin's astute observations.

The African Director of the Royal United Services Institute in London said that one way countries with money and available expertise could help Zimbabwe after Mugabe would be to compile statistics showing who had a right to land ownership. "We've had a land revolution since 2000. Now we need to find out who really has title to the land. It's not an easy process. It's not going to take a short time but any assistance that can be given, irrespective of politics, would be welcome." He said it was vital that leading members of the security forces were drawn into discussions about the country's future. "If the security sector is made to feel that they have no part of the political process they may well feel threatened, then they have the power, as we know, to clamp down on any kind of change." Both speakers agreed that there could be no going back on the land issue and praised Zimbabwe for playing constructive and well-organized roles in regional peace keeping initiatives. "It's not a lost cause," said Chitiyo. "Zimbabwe still retains a high level of professionalism, despite all the violence."

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