Back to Index

This article participates on the following special index pages:

Breakthrough or sell out?
The Economist
September 28, 2007

Visit the special index of articles, analysis and opinion on Constitutional Amendment 18

ROBERT MUGABE appears once again to have wrong-footed those who have been trying to oust him. Britain's prime minister, Gordon Brown, is trying to prevent Zimbabwe's president from attending a much-heralded summit meeting of the African Union and the European Union in December. Mr Brown says he will not attend if Mr Mugabe does. But it seems clear that most African governments will stay away if Mr Mugabe is excluded. Portugal, the summit's host, is apparently likely to bow to African pressure and hold the summit whether or not Mr Brown shows up. And British officials hint that even if Mr Brown stayed away, other ministers would almost certainly attend.

Better still for Mr Mugabe, both factions of Zimbabwe's divided opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), have recently sided with the ruling party, ZANU-PF, endorsing some controversial constitutional amendments that may well strengthen its grip. This has dismayed many of the lobbies-human-rights campaigners, churches, women's groups and so on-that usually back the MDC, further fracturing an already crumbly opposition.

The amendments proposed by the ruling party allow Parliament, which is dominated by ZANU-PF, to choose a successor if the president steps down or dies before the end of his term. Simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections look set for March 2008. Seats in the lower house will increase from 150 to 210, and constituencies will be redrawn. This will favour rural areas, where ZANU-PF's grip is tighter than in the towns. The ruling party gave ground by agreeing to limit the president's power to appoint some members of parliament; a supposedly revamped electoral commission will be in charge of redrawing constituencies.

Until now, the MDC had strongly opposed the amendments on the ground that they would entrench the ruling party ahead of the election. The MDC had insisted on a new constitution, the repeal of repressive security and media laws, and for Zimbabwe's diaspora, thought to be more than 3m-strong, to be allowed to vote. Some pro-reform organisations are aghast at the MDC'S reversal. The National Constitutional Assembly, a lobby that for a decade has called for a new constitution, accuses its former ally of treachery.

For its part, the MDC calls its volte-face a confidence-building gesture. It has been talking to ZANU-PF under the auspices of Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president, who was asked in March by the
14-country Southern African Development Community (SADC) to help solve Zimbabwe's crisis. Behind its official policy of united support for Mr Mugabe, the regional grouping is divided. The British say that a change of mood was noticeable at the latest SADC summit, in Lusaka in August, and that countries like Tanzania and even Namibia that were previously loth to challenge Mr Mugabe have begun to see his refusal to budge as damaging the whole region.

So SADC has hailed the constitutional deal as a breakthrough. Enthusiasts point to reports that ZANU-PF may relax (though not repeal) the media and security laws and work towards a new constitution-at some stage. Some also argue that letting Mr Mugabe in effect pick his successor would make him likelier to step down. Negotiations between his party and the MDC continue, but it is unclear whether Mr Mugabe's lot will make serious concessions.

Divide and rule The opposition is weaker than ever. It has been unable to stir up the millions of victims of Zimbabwe's economic catastrophe. The MDC faction headed by Arthur Mutambara said in July that attempts to unite the party and field a single presidential candidate had failed. He denounced Morgan Tsvangirai, the party's founder and head of the other faction, as "weak and indecisive". Meanwhile, many of the party's mostly urban supporters have left the country: in all, a quarter of the population may have gone. The MDC's allies look weak too. A recent strike call by the Congress of Trade Unions was largely ignored. Other groups' efforts to hold marches and protests have fizzled; people have long been cowed by the beatings and arrests routinely inflicted by the regime.

Despite reports that the latest registration of voters was badly flawed, Mr Mbeki and some of his fellow leaders in the region are keen for next year's elections to be deemed reasonably fair, after which they hope that Mr Mugabe will step down and ZANU-PF will draw one of the MDC factions, probably the one led by Mr Mutambara rather than Mr Tsvangirai, into a coalition. That, they hope, will pave the way to an internationally-backed recovery. Whether Mr Mugabe is contemplating such a scenario is another matter.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP