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Mugabe stronger than ever, opposition in disarray
Cris Chinaka, Reuters
September 21, 2007

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL20083955.html

HARARE - Despite an economy close to collapse, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe looks stronger than ever, with the domestic opposition in retreat and Western nations divided over how to deal with him Mugabe has brushed aside years of international pressure to step down over charges of ruining the once-prosperous nation, violating human rights and rigging elections to stay in office.

And now political analysts say the divided opposition, intimidated by security forces and weakened by tactical mistakes, presents no real challenge, giving Mugabe space to manoeuvre and to cast calls for his exit as a Western plot. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's threat to boycott December's EU-Africa summit in Lisbon if Mugabe attends appears to have misfired, opening a European split on the issue after Portuguese sources said they would push ahead without him.

Mugabe, 83, last of the iconic African liberation heroes in power, retains strong support on the continent despite fears Zimbabwe's meltdown could blight the whole of southern Africa.

The collapse this week of a general strike in protest against a government wage freeze underlined how the opposition seems have run out of ways to confront Mugabe, regarded as a cunning and ruthless political player.

With six months to go before presidential, parliamentary and local government elections, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is riven by divisions over strategy, personality clashes and leadership wrangles which undermine its ability to exploit Zimbabwe's economic crisis.

The MDC split into two factions two years ago in a bitter quarrel over participation in elections for an upper house of parliament, and has been struggling to find the same stature that almost won it power in elections in
2000 and in 2002.

Although the factions - headed by main opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara - have found a common platform in talks with Mugabe's ZANU-PF party mediated by South African President Thabo Mbeki, they have not agreed on a single candidate to challenge Mugabe in the 2008 polls.

No real challenge

Political analyst Eldred Masunungure said the split had left the MDC unable to mount a meaningful challenge in the elections.

'I'm not sure the opposition has its house in order, the leadership continues to wrangle, they remain indecisive and in disarray ... their support base is disoriented and lacks clear direction,' he said.

'They need to demonstrate capacity not only to win, but also to guide the nation out of the economic disaster.'

The opposition is further divided over a deal under which the MDC and the government unanimously passed an electoral bill on Thursday effectively giving Mugabe room to choose his successor but reducing his powers to appoint some legislators.

Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of an MDC-allied political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly, has branded the parliamentary deal a 'act of treachery' while rights campaign group Crisis Zimbabwe Coalition said the MDC had sold its soul for no clear gains.

Although Mugabe has largely cowed the opposition by routinely deploying riot police to crush street protests, analysts believe an organised MDC could still pose a strong challenge to Mugabe at the polls, exploiting discontent with misery caused by the economic meltdown.

Zimbabwe faces chronic shortages of food, fuel and foreign currency, as well as unemployment over 80 percent and the highest inflation rate in the world of 6,600 percent.

Once one of Africa's most prosperous nations, Zimbabwe's combination of poverty and AIDS has brought life expectancy down from nearly 60 in 1990 to around 40 now, among the lowest rates in the world.

Mugabe, Zimbabwe's ruler since independence from Britain in 1980, rejects blame for the crisis, saying domestic and Western opponents are sabotaging the economy to oust him.

Tsvangirai - a former trade union leader who has been at the helm of the MDC since its formation eight years ago - is still seen as Mugabe's main challenger.

But many analysts say the 55-year-old has squandered his opportunities and been outflanked by the veteran Zimbabwean leader. He may lose more ground in the Mbeki-mediated talks.

'Mugabe is not negotiating himself out power, and, may by conceding ground on non-crucial issues, actually be running rings around the MDC,' a senior Western diplomat told Reuters.

'The MDC's structural weaknesses and lack of experience is coming to the fore on this,' he said.

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