Back to Index

The rumblings of secret plotting to get rid of Mugabe have already begun
Peter Fabricius, The Cape Times (SA)
August 20, 2007

http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=17213

To the perennial question "can't the South African government and the southern African region do more about Zimbabwe?", perhaps the most irritating official reply is: "What do you want us to do? Invade the country?" Well, perhaps it's just a short step away from the military option, but, as one alternative to invasion, how about withholding tumultuous applause from Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe? I refer, of course, to the loud applause Mugabe got at last week's Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit in Lusaka. Perhaps once the region has got over the post-traumatic stress of withholding adulation, it could consider the next bold move. One suggestion - stop blaming the stupendous economic meltdown in Zimbabwe on the fact that Mugabe's young wife Grace can't go shopping at Harrod's any more.

I refer, of course, to the fact that the only international sanctions against Zimbabwe are travel and financial bans on Mugabe, a few of his cronies and some of their families by the European Union, the United States, Australia and perhaps one or two other countries. These draconian measures have forced Bob and Grace to do their Christmas shopping in Kuala Lumpur instead of London or Paris. But at the Lusaka summit, SADC executive secretary Tomaz Salamao nevertheless blamed sanctions for Zimbabwe's economic calamity, and therefore proposed a regional economic rescue plan, fully endorsed by the summit. There was, understandably, some speculation that SADC might use this bail-out as leverage to extract some quid pro quo from Mugabe - like ending his crazy campaign to halve prices by decree or restoring property rights, or agreeing to reforms to ensure free and fair elections next year.

But that was too much to expect. President Thabo Mbeki, who is facilitating political negotiations between Mugabe's Zanu PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to try to ensure fair elections, told journalists after the summit that the economic package was unconditional. Which means it will probably have the effect of helping Mugabe win the elections by alleviating some hardships which are driving his supporters away from Zanu PF. So the chances of Mbeki's mediation dislodging Mugabe seem even more remote. Most foreign governments were not including it among their scenarios for change anyway. "Mugabe is not going to negotiate himself out of power," one well-placed observer explained. "He has no Plan B. Having seen (former Liberian president) Charles Taylor stand down on the basis of an offer of exile and amnesty from his fellow African presidents which they later reneged on, he's determined to stay in power to the bitter end. To go from State House to Heroes Acre, as it were."

Only a palace coup - probably backed by military muscle - has any chance of removing Mugabe, foreign governments increasingly believe, and the rumblings have already begun. They see evidence of it in the handful of officers arrested recently for plotting against Mugabe and don't believe they were victims of his paranoia, as others believe. They are also inclined to believe army General Armstrong Gunda, officially killed by a train recently, was actually murdered. Their eyes are now fixed firmly on Solomon Mujuru, ex-military husband of Vice-President Joyce Mujuru, to see if he will venture a move within Zanu PF over the next few months to have Mugabe replaced as the party's presidential candidate for the elections. "If he fails at the party congress, he will need military back-up," one observer said ominously, indicating just how high and perilous the stakes have become. If it comes to that, then perhaps SADC will at last act decisively - but only by sending in its brand new SADC brigade, launched at the Lusaka summit, to save Mugabe's skin, as it might be obliged to do under SADC's mutual defence pact. And so, after all, perhaps the answer to that irritating question is, yes we do, sort-of, expect SADC to invade Zimbabwe.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP