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SADC:
Mugabe in the pound seats
Mail & Guardian (SA)
August 09, 2007
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=316231&area=/insight/insight__africa/
In the five months since
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) asked President
Thabo Mbeki to mediate in the Zimbabwe crisis, Robert Mugabe has
pushed through legislation entrenching his rule, widened rifts with
his opponents and made policy decisions that have deepened his country's
economic crisis. With just a week to go before Mbeki is due to present
a report on the progress of his mediation efforts in Zimbabwe, there
are no visible signs that Mugabe has cooperated as much as SADC
and Mbeki had hoped.
But analysts say Mbeki
goes into next week's SADC summit in Lusaka encouraged that
a set of recommendations to rescue Zimbabwe's economy is now
ready. SADC secretary general Tomasz Salomão, who has led
the SADC team that is trying to work out an economic rescue package
for Zimbabwe, disclosed this week that he has presented a document
of recommended economic reforms to Tanzanian leader Jakaya Kikwete,
the head of the region's organ on politics and security.
Salomão told the
Mail & Guardian this week that he had given the document to
Kikwete on July 29. Although he would not discuss the contents of
the report, he was quoted earlier as saying that Zimbabwe's
neighbours need to provide fertilizer and energy to the country.
He also described the state of the mediation process as "delicate".
With the veil of secrecy over the talks, it is difficult to gauge
the success of the Mbeki mediation. There is the question of how
much of the recommended reforms Mugabe will be prepared to accept.
This will be key in determining the future of the Mbeki mediation
process, opposition figures in Zimbabwe say privately. Zanu PF seems
to feel it is under no pressure; it has missed meetings at will
and stalled the talks on constitutional reform. Its deputy spokesperson,
Ephraim Masawi, this week said his party's delegation to the
dialogue is waiting now for a formal briefing by Mugabe before taking
a final position on whether to discuss a new constitution.
But among Mugabe's
opponents, patience with the regional mediation process seems to
have run out. Elphas Mukonoweshuro, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's
senior foreign policy adviser, disclosed the opposition's
frustration with the process. He said: "What is most disappointing
up to now is there has not been much progress in terms of the substantive
issues concerning Zimbabwe. When SADC leaders mandated Mbeki to
look at the Zimbabwe issue, there was a real sense of urgency to
contain the total breakdown of the country, but all we see is the
situation getting worse." Representatives of both factions
of the MDC have been criss-crossing the region this week, anxious
to prod it to take more urgent action.
Despite outrage over
the brutal beating of opposition politicians and activists, Mugabe
escaped public SADC censure at the last summit in March. State media
gloated over what it saw as a diplomatic victory, saying Mugabe
had managed to convince the summit that he had acted only to defend
the country against a violent opposition. At the March meeting in
Dar es Salaam, he presented what was called "a dossier of
the MDC's terror tactics" prepared by police. But now
it turns out that the entire document was a collection of lies crafted
by the police. A Harare High Court judge - ending the five-month
detention of 13 opposition activists accused of taking part in a
petrol bomb campaign earlier this year - dismissed police claims
that the activists had created a South African-based and opposition-run
terror training camp, adding that witnesses who police say had linked
petrol bomb attacks to the MDC were entirely "fictitious".
At the upcoming meeting,
SADC will be under pressure to confront Mugabe about his disastrous
economic policies. More than 7 500 business people have been arrested
since he ordered a price freeze in June. State media reported last
weekend that Zimbabwe will produce its smallest wheat crop since
1980, after irrigated crops were hit by power cuts and fuel shortages.
The price crackdown has combined with poor harvests to create a
new surge of economic refugees seeking food and jobs in neighbouring
countries. It is perhaps this growing number of fleeing Zimbabweans
that might persuade the region to adopt a fresh approach to the
Zimbabwe crisis. South Africa has been bearing the brunt of the
exodus, but Zambian immigration has reported that the number of
Zimbabweans crossing into the southern town of Livingstone in search
of basic goods has risen from 60 to 1 000 people daily.
Zambia is the incoming
chair of SADC and relations between Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa
and Mugabe are not as cosy as Mugabe would want. Mwanawasa's
deputy, Rupiah Banda, travelled to Harare in April and stroked Mugabe's
ego, calling him "an outstanding leader". Last week,
Banda was back in Harare "in an attempt to make up with Mugabe",
reports said. Zimbabwe's opposition fears that, in his report
to SADC, Mbeki will go no further than the position taken by his
Cabinet recently when it voiced "concern about the deteriorating
situation in Zimbabwe", encouraging only a continuation of
the dialogue.
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