Back to Index

The band of brothers
David Cotzee, BBC Focus on Africa
July - September 2007

David Coetzee looks at why southern African leaders are loathe to denounce President Mugabe

The Pan-African Parliament (Pap) has from the first been dismissed as a house full of hot air. But at times hot air is what is needed when others want something hushed up.

This was the case with its decision in May to send a fact-finding delegation to Zimbabwe. Having taken its vote (149 to 20 with three abstentions) in the face of hefty antagonism from Zimbabwean MPs, it then postponed its mission until November.

But in stark contrast to the way its regional cousin, the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), does things - the parliamentary debate on the issue held in South Africa was vigorous and public.

There was almost unanimous acknowledgement that Zimbabwe was in crisis - obvious enough about a country with the world's highest rate of inflation and an estimated one quarter of its population now economic refugees.

Since its inception Sadc, however, has operated as a secret society when it comes to politically sensitive issues and deliberate obfuscation is often its coinage. Its official communiqué after the Zimbabwe crisis summit in Dar es Salaam in March - as images flashed round the world of bloodied opposition leaders in Zimbabwe - reaffirmed "solidarity" with President Robert Mugabe and called for his South African counterpart, President Thabo Mbeki, to facilitate "dialogue" with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Some in the region defended this apparent sympathy for Mugabe as a necessary subterfuge to placate him and prepare the way for his exit. But critics saw the statement, which gave Mugabe all he could ask for, as fairly typical Sadc fare.

Neither the parliamentary debate nor the Sadc summit are likely to have taken place had it not been for the public displays of brutality by Zimbabwe's police and the massive dismay reflected in diplomatic forums from the United Nations down to a grassroots level. Mozambique's Savana newspaper ran a full page showing MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai's beaten and bloody face.

Civil society bodies throughout the region - trade unions, women's organizations, and lawyers' groups - were galvanized. In Botswana two members of parliament demanded the recall of their ambassador from Zimbabwe. It was this sense of public outrage that pervaded the Pap, largely forgotten since its ceremonial initiation in Addis Ababa in 2004. When it voted for the fact-finding mission it briefly reasserted its political relevance.

Sadc's secret diplomacy has a lot to do with its members' wide cultural and economic diversity, their different interests and disagreements - none of which the organization wants aired if it is to preserve its claim to unity. There are clear divisions inside the bloc: firstly historic - linked to the old frontline states fighting apartheid South Africa - and current - linked to relations with the expanding economic hegemony of South Africa.

On the Zimbabwe issue Mugabe had traditional allies in Angola, DR Congo and Namibia. There were the waverers, such as Mozambique and Zambia, and the antagonists, South Africa and Botswana. It was Nelson Mandela, South Africa's first democratic president, who first challenged Mugabe's primacy in the region when he opposed Zimbabwe's and Namibia's military intervention in DR Congo in 1999. But in subsequent years none in the region have backed Mugabe's opposition.

South Africa and Botswana are the most affected by the crisis because of the increasing flows of refugees over their borders. Nearly a million Zimbabweans have fled to Botswana, almost drowning its tiny population of 1.7 million. Overall, more than 3 million of Zimbabwe's 12.9 million people are estimated to be in South Africa, Botswana and the UK.

Regional leaders could have secured a way out long before the Zimbabwe crisis developed to its current level by conceding that the 2005 parliamentary elections were rigged - the view of most observers - and helping open up a democratic space. Instead they repeatedly gave the Sadc seal of approval. Undoubtedly they did not want to break ranks by betraying one of their seniors. But another reason is increasingly plausible - they may fear opening the doors to an unpredictable democratic movement in Zimbabwe that could find an echo in their own countries.

There has been a growing awareness that Mugabe's grip on power was slipping after his Zanu-PF's 2004 congress revealed the extent of party rifts over who should become vice-president. The brutal beatings of March 11 this year were a symptom of this fragility at the top.

With this knowledge, and under public pressure, Sadc leaders have had to change tactics. Zambia's president Levy Mwanawasa was first to break ranks, perhaps emboldened by his election victory last year and a booming economy, when he called Zimbabwe a "sinking Titanic". Then Mozambique's leader Armando Guebuza said the crisis was affecting the operations of the Beira Corridor trade route. Old ally Angola signed a law and order deal with Mugabe, but later offered its diplomatic services to help him out of his crisis. Tanzania's president Jakaya Kikwete had already paid a quiet visit to Mugabe as Sadc corralled him towards the Dar es Salaam summit. Afterwards Sadc quietly leaked that despite all appearances to the contrary it had set in motion an exit strategy for Mugabe.

Most observers are not holding their breath. Sadc does not see the MDC, with roots in the labour movement, as a viable governing alternative, and a recognizable African nationalist party. The sympathetic hearing it gets in Western capitals and from opposition parties and civil society in the region is held against it. So rather than risk unpredictable outcomes, Sadc preference may be for some form of government co-option of MDC leaders, while continuing to turn a blind eye to opposition bashing.

David Coetzee, a South African based in Washington DC, is the editor of Southscan News.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP