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Coup plot bogus
Pedzisai Ruhanya, Zimbabwe Independent
June 22, 2007

http://allafrica.com/stories/200706220521.html

EVENTS relating to an alleged military take-over of the government need a thorough interrogation in order to explain the continued deterioration of the political and economic crisis that Zimbabwe has been grappling with for the past seven years.

While the ingredients for a military take-over are there for everyone to witness, the question is whether indeed such a plot was foiled or whether there are other explanations such as the possibility of a coup, the raging succession war in Zanu PF or the party's usual diversionary tactics when faced with critical national issues such as the continued freefall of the economy.

It is important to understand that the military by nature, composition and design is authoritarian, in most cases extremely undemocratic. Such qualities help soldiers to serve their constitutional mandate which includes defence against foreign enemies. The role of the military is to destroy threats, not to apprehend them for processing through a system that presumes them innocent until proven guilty.

In most cases elsewhere, the military have cited economic decay, the prevalence of anarchy or lawlessness, corruption, nepotism and the possibility of a collapsed state as some of the reasons for taking over the government from the civilians. The soldiers argue that they are a mechanised, technical lot with abundant capacity to redress the situation.

One is therefore tempted to argue that a military coup could have been foiled given that the most critical elements for a military takeover are currently prevailing in Zimbabwe. This is so because for the past seven years, Zimbabwe has been experiencing negative economic growth, a shrinking industrial base and consequently lack of production for the critical export sector which is very important for securing foreign currency needed to import necessities such as electricity and fuel.

As a result of the freefall of the economy, people's wages continue to be eroded to the extent that civil servants including the military are now receiving pocket-money wages that they are being paid every fortnight. These people do not have disposable incomes to pay for basic necessities such as schools and hospital fees as well as groceries for their families.

The military also cites corrupt tendencies by the incumbent government as one of the reasons for army takeovers.

Zimbabwe's history under the administration of President Robert Mugabe is littered with numerous cases of corruption ranging from the Willogate Scandal, the War Victims Compensation Fund, the DRC war and the diamond looting associated with the adventure, the Pay-For-Your-House Scheme, the fast-track land reform programme and the piling of farms on Zanu PF leaders, the Zupco saga, the Ziscosteel plunder, the Noczim fuel fiasco and more recently the Operation Garikai scheme where senior public officials benefited from a project that was meant for the poor after their houses were destroyed during Operation Murambatsvina.

Associated with these cases is the issue of nepotism where relatives of government and Zanu PF officials benefit from the looting of national resources. Such cases invite the military to take over purportedly to rescue the nation from decay.

Cases of lawlessness that form the cornerstone of Zanu PF's role are also important in explaining the causes of military coups. Usually the army comes in order to restore law and order after the failure of civilians to maintain law and order in the country.

The invasion of courts by war veterans, the attack against lawyers, journalists and ordinary citizens without any recourse to justice have become endemic in Zimbabwe's political psyche under Zanu PF. Attendant to this is the glaring selective application of justice where there is one law for Zanu PF supporters and sympathisers and another law for the rest of the population. Such unjust and inequitable application of the law also forms the bedrock of army involvement in civil matters.

Having noted the existence of an environment conducive for the army to be tempted into violating the constitutional order of the country, it is my contention that attempts to overthrow the government of Mugabe are close to remote or somewhere nearer.

It is therefore plausible to argue that the attempted coup plot was pre-emptive. This seems so given that the establishment through its secret services such as the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) operatives is aware that the situation on the ground can create such a scenario. It could have been the strategy of the government through the CIO to warn those harbouring such unconstitutional ideas that Big Brother was watching them.

One of the reasons a military coup is next to impossible in Zimbabwe is the geo-political location of Zimbabwe. The Southern African Development Community -- bar the former Zaire, now the DRC, and the failed coup in Lesotho -- does not have a history of military coups.

This factor is important to make the military aware of the difficulties it faces in the event of such an unlawful misconduct. Most important, the countries that Zimbabwe share borders with are administered by civilian governments and some of them such as Zambia, Botswana and South Africa are fairly democratic.

Also crucial is the composition of the military in Zimbabwe where both high and middle-ranking officers are former liberation war fighters with an umbilical cord with Zanu PF. To infiltrate such an establishment needs a lot of courage and planning.

More so the big people in the army are part of the patronage system of Zanu PF. They have amassed a lot of wealth through the allocation of farms and luxury vehicles to the extent that they have become part of the problem and cannot overthrow themselves from power.

The other hindrance is the ubiquitous nature of the CIO among the country's repressive state apparatus including the army to the extent that any such ideas can be nipped in the bud.

In most cases, such as what happed in Chile when Augusto Pinochet in 1973 overthrew the Socialist government of Allende, there was the heavy involvement of foreign forces or governments, just as what happened when Mobutu Sese Seko took over in the Congo.

In the current Zimbabwe scenario, there are no indications that a foreign power is involved, which further gives credence that the so-called coup was a child's play at best and imaginary and hallucinatory at worst. This leaves us with at least two possible explanations for the alleged coup.

The alleged involvement of Housing minister Emmerson Mnangagwa gives a political dimension to the whole saga. Mnangagwa, like retired general Solomon Mujuru, leads a Zanu PF faction that wants to succeed Mugabe.

The mentioning of Mnangagwa in the court papers and the failure by the security agents to arrest him for such a serious crime gives an impression that the alleged coup plot is bogus. It seems that the whole issue is part of the infighting in the ruling party between the two feuding factions.

One of the remote explanations which cannot be ruled out given Zanu PF's desperation is the idea of trying to create a state under siege that requires huge funding for the security forces for them to be able to maintain law and order.

In my view, behind this plan could be the ruling party's intention to deploy the military in the country for its election campaign as it did in 2002. Zanu PF has realised that without the assistance of the military and other repressive state apparatus such as the CIO, their chances of winning the 2008 poll are next to nothing.

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