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Africa's last chance
Comment, Financial Times (UK)
March 26, 2007

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/441f0290-db2e-11db-ba4d-000b5df10621.html

Southern Africa has a fresh opportunity in coming days and weeks to take the lead in saving Zimbabwe from its slide into a failed state. There is no consensus yet on how to achieve this. But as regional leaders stake out their positions, there are clear signs that President Robert Mugabe's influence among his peers has slipped amid economic meltdown in Zimbabwe and international pressure to broaden sanctions on his regime.

Angola's position appears to go against the trend. It has vowed to stand beside Mr Mugabe in resisting western interference. Some reports suggest that Luanda is even ready to deploy paramilitaries to help prolong Mr Mugabe's rule. It is hard to see what it would gain from the confrontation with South Africa this might entail. More likely Angola - flush with petrodollars - is flexing its muscles. It is positioning itself as Mr Mugabe's political heir, the anti-western champion of resource nationalism, playing Venezuela to South Africa's Brazil.

At the other end of the spectrum stands Zambia. President Levy Mwanawasa is almost alone in public but he finds himself among a growing number of regional leaders privately considering more decisive action to bring Mr Mugabe's disastrous reign to an end. South Africa's quiet diplomacy in Zimbabwe has failed, he said last week. His country's southern neighbour is now a "sinking Titanic" threatening stability in the region. Neither Zambia's nor Angola's position should mask South Africa's greater potential influence over Zimbabwe's future. Rivals to succeed Mr Mugabe are heading to Pretoria for consultations. It is there that an exit strategy for Mr Mugabe is most likely to take shape.

More criticism in the west of President Thabo Mbeki's discreet approach is not helpful. Pretoria's position towards Mr Mugabe is gradually hardening of its own accord. In the past, polemics from western leaders have allowed Mr Mugabe to play the race card. Today, they risk strengthening Angola's anti-western tilt, as it seeks to broaden its own influence in the region on the back of Zimbabwe's plight.

The west should now be focusing on financing a post-Mugabe rescue package, which Zimbabwe will desperately need and which could help quicken the pace of regional diplomacy by providing hope to a suffering populace.

The opportunity to save Zimbabwe from chaos is fast evaporating. But the makings of a power-sharing transition leading to fair elections are on the table as regional leaders and regime insiders grapple with the more difficult question of persuading Mr Mugabe to abandon power. At this late stage African leaders scarcely need reminding that their own reputation and not just Zimbabwe's future is at stake. For too long, they have been collectively tarnished by their failure to rein in the despots in their midst.

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