Back to Index

Houdini holds on, for now
The Economist
March 22, 2007

http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8896782

THE walls talk bravely enough in Harare, Zimbabwe's capital. "Vote him out" is scrawled in man-sized letters on a fence in the leafy suburb where President Robert Mugabe has his private home. On brick and tarmac across town are sprayed "MDC", the initials of the opposition party, and the word "Change". But flesh and blood are more vulnerable. In the past two weeks, since police shot dead a man who was calling for Mr Mugabe to go and then arrested and badly beat several opposition leaders, something close to a state of emergency has been in force.

At night plain-clothes security men prowl the townships, breaking up meetings and enforcing an unofficial curfew. All over the city uniformed police now tote semi-automatic rifles. It is popularly believed that one in ten adults works for the feared Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO), which reports directly to Mr Mugabe. Last weekend the CIO reportedly snatched the body of the slain protester from a funeral parlour to prevent his burial becoming the focus of more anti-Mugabe demonstrations. Few dare to mention the president by name. "The old man must give it a rest, the people are cross," says a gardener, adding that the police use water-cannon and truncheons on those who speak out.

So the crackdown goes on, despite foreign criticism even from some corners of Africa that had previously kept quiet. On March 18th an opposition activist was dragged aside at Harare airport and beaten. Others were arrested when they tried to leave the country for the medical treatment they need after the beatings they had suffered earlier this month.

Optimists say that the increasing repression is evidence that Mr Mugabe is becoming desperate, that he now lacks any other means to hang on to power. Morgan Tsvangirai, the main opposition leader, whose fractured skull has become a very visible symbol of the latest round of state violence, says that the end is close for Mr Mugabe. Another MDC spokesman believes that the president has run out of tricks to ensure his survival: "We are watching Houdini finally drowning in his chains", he says.

But that may be wishful thinking, at least if it depends on the opposition getting its act together. The MDC remains divided, penniless, without serious foreign support and unable to get people back on the streets in big numbers. Young men have thrown petrol bombs at police stations and assaulted policemen, but such acts are spontaneous defiance; little is organised. Residents of Harare, where anti-Mugabe feeling is strongest, say that they "just pray for change", but few seem ready to do much more. Beyond the city there have been no serious demonstrations.

Of course Zimbabweans are fed up. Most are jobless. Few wages, anyway, cover the high cost of something as mundane as taking a bus to work. At dusk the roads are lined with men and women, some with firewood or sacks of mealie-meal on their shoulders, tramping home to townships many miles away. With inflation at 1,700%, cash is being printed so fast it is all but worthless. Zimbabweans joke that theirs is the only country where millionaires go hungry. Petty crime is rising. Shop owners say staff or customers used to pilfer some 5% of their stock, but now the share is as high as one-third.

But such woes do not simply translate into political protest. Without opposition leaders to organise the discontented, Zimbabweans knuckle down and endure hardship. More and more households, struck by AIDS, are headed by children; more young people turn to prostitution and crime; more beggars and fruit-sellers patrol the streets.

And among the poverty and hopelessness, a few people are getting rich too. Ever more luxurious cars navigate Harare's potholed streets and broken traffic lights. On March 19th the country's stockmarket rose by a barely credible 569,000 points, as much in a single day as it rose in the four decades up to January 2007. Investors get short-term loans from local banks to speculate; when it all collapses, as it must, some banks will be in big trouble.

None of this means, however, that Mr Mugabe is safely in office for the long term. A real threat lies within his own ranks. Jonathan Moyo, an outspoken independent MP (but formerly the chief public apologist for the president), claims that the old man is isolated in his own party and is losing his political touch: "Mugabe's rule is finally coming to an end," he says. He predicts that the ruling Zanu-PF party will soon split as rivals for the succession become impatient to take over.

Mr Mugabe has long been adept at dividing and ruling over his allies, but recently he has stumbled. He failed to get the party to extend his presidential term by two years. He has been virtually ignored by his party after saying that he will run again for president in an election in 2008. Instead, leading power-brokers, especially Solomon Mujuru, an old brother-in-arms, appear to be stitching together rival party factions to ditch the president. Mr Mujuru is said to worry that economic collapse is threatening his own vast wealth and is thought to have the backing of at least some of the army.

Such rumours, if true, would be a greater threat than street protests. Tantalisingly, some close to Zanu-PF's leaders even say that Mr Mujuru has been in talks with Mr Tsvangirai. Yet Mr Mugabe is a keen fighter. He is spry despite his 83 years, rising at 4am each morning and working until at least 9pm, according to a priest who sees him regularly. He has a strong incentive to hold on to power, as he fears prosecution for murder and other crimes. And some others in the party would hate to see Mr Mujuru triumph, so may help prolong Mr Mugabe's rule. Thus, as with the opposition, the rival factions of the ruling party are hobbled by their own divisions. Houdini is indeed looking troubled, but he is not out of breath yet. 

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP