|
Back to Index
"Now
is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer . . . "
: Where is the promised mass action?
Sokwanele
September 11,
2006
http://www.sokwanele.com/articles/sokwanele/winterofdiscontent_10septemeber2006.html
The beginning of September in Zimbabwe
truly marks the end of winter and the beginning of spring: the fruit
trees are beginning to blossom, the birds are busy building nests,
the cool mornings are turning into bright warm days.
In March this year, Morgan Tsvangirai,
the leader of one of the factions of the divided opposition Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC), spoke at his party’s congress. He promised
a "sustained cold season of peaceful democratic resistance",
which has since been dubbed by his faction of the MDC a "Winter
of Discontent".
His speech outlined the right that
the people of Zimbabwe have to mass action, where they are entitled
to express themselves and to share their views on the way they are
governed, and that "experience shows that only a sustained
and concerted effort by all Zimbabweans shall deliver a desired
result".
Tsvangirai continued:
"The phase that we have
entered calls upon every one of us to endure the pain and resolutely
fight for freedom. In summary, our experience shows us that while
we managed to shake the regime with action in March 2003 and in
June 2003, we did not move sufficiently to cause meaningful democratic
change in our society. The options open to us are very clear: we
need a short, sharp programme of action to free ourselves."
He pledged himself to take up the challenge
and lead from the front. This personal pledge and the calls to the
people have been repeated often in the last 6 months; they have
been used as a rallying call to a subdued yet angry people who are
longing for a leadership that will free them from the tyranny of
the Zanu PF regime. In July, at a meeting of the MDC provincial
chairpersons to evaluate the party's state of preparedness to embark
on a national resistance programme, he encouraged the participants
with the words:
"The MDC leadership is
ready for a comprehensive roll out effort. We are a serious political
party. We represent the last hope of the nation. We have a duty
to offer alternatives when a nation is under stress. Our road map
to a new Zimbabwe can only be a reality if we make a political statement
through action and demonstrate to the world the exact location of
Zimbabwe's political power balance."
The promise that there would be a winter
of discontent has often been repeated by National Executive members
of the Tsvangirai faction and newspapers and web sites sympathetic
to the Tsvangirai faction such as the Zimbabwean newspaper.
For example Eddie Cross’ website documents
all his newsletters written this year which repeatedly make the
promise that there would be a winter of discontent. In March he
wrote "I expect real action this time and there is, for the
first time, going to be a confrontation" (just after the March
congress); "we are about to hit this egg hard" (mid April);
and continuing with "Lets not despair – the finish line is
in sight….. It has taken longer than any of us expected and it has
been much tougher than we anticipated, but we are nearly there"
(end of July); and talking about moving "towards democratic
resistance strategies designed to secure a negotiated settlement
of the political crisis and to chart the way forward" (beginning
of August).
The Zimbabwean’s front page articles
these days have featured positive coverage of Tsvangirai and his
faction. By the end of August, in the absence of any concrete fulfilment
of these pledges, the faction obviously felt the need to reassure
its supporters that it was still committed to mass action, and The
Zimbabwean obliged by reporting those speeches. For two consecutive
weeks at the end of August, we are regaled with such front page
headlines:
"Agreement on mass action"
"Prepare to be arrested – Tsvangirai"
And the current front cover of The
Zimbabwean is titled "Government jitters as MDC demo looms" (a misleading
headline given the fact that the protests anticipated to go ahead
on Wednesday this week have been organised by the Zimbabwe Congress
of Trade Unions (ZCTU)).
The sloganeering of recent months also
seems to have had a personal political motive – namely that of building
up Morgan Tsvangirai, and to encourage people to "Morgan’s
side" in the split of the MDC into two factions. He has put
himself forward as the saviour of the country – the one prepared
to lead his people in peaceful mass action against a despotic regime.
In other words in the competition to portray the Tsvangirai faction
as the "main MDC", or even the only MDC, the promise of
mass action has been deliberately used to create the notion that
only Morgan Tsvangirai can deliver Zimbabweans from their plight.
Accordingly the question must be asked – "were these promises
just ill thought through expressions of genuine desires or were
they a cynical and deceitful ploy to bolster support for Morgan
Tsvangirai without any real intention of carrying out the promises?"
Only time will tell what the truth is. But clearly having made the
promise Morgan Tsvangirai must deliver or else many will undoubtedly
believe that there was never any real intent to organise a "Winter
of Discontent".
The concerns that there was no real
intention to organise a winter of discontent were greatly increased
in late June when Morgan Tsvangirai’s spokesman William Bango told
the Zimbabwe Independent newspaper that the use of the term "Winter
of Discontent" was "metaphorical" and that not much
store should be placed in mass action being organised in the winter
of 2006. That is simply not good enough for two reasons: firstly
from the various statements made by Morgan Tsvangirai and his lieutenants
it was made clear that the action would be soon and "short
and sharp"; secondly if one does use phrases such as "winter
of discontent" especially in autumn (as they were) in a metaphorical
way then one has an obligation to tell people explicitly that the
phrase is used metaphorically, otherwise hopes will be unnecessarily
raised only to be dashed.
However, whatever the case now
that spring is here, we can and must now legitimately ask: Where
is this winter of discontent? Why hasn’t it happened?
Lest the response be that there was
a march to Parliament by Morgan Tsvangirai and his "liberation
team" on the 1st September we must say that whilst that is
welcome that does not amount to a winter of discontent. The truth
is that there has been no winter of discontent – there has been
no mass action of any form organised this now past winter.
Numerous are the reasons why mass action hasn’t taken off; some
of these rest with the people, some with the leadership.
From the people’s side, grinding poverty
has taken its toll: people are weakened from malnutrition, many
eating only one meal a day, and are using all their remaining energy
in trying to scrape together the wherewithal to feed, clothe and
educate their families. AIDS has also increased the burden on the
poor, who are largely unable to afford anti-retroviral drugs or
the good nutrition necessary to stay the onslaught of the disease;
the age-group most decimated by AIDS is precisely that group most
needed to maintain productivity for the country and to support their
families by employment in the formal sector. These are also the
ones most likely to take to the streets in protest.
There is also the issue of leadership
who, time and again, have failed to harness and direct the anger
of the people. Morgan Tsvangirai and his party have consistently
raised expectations, only to let Zimbabweans down by failing to
deliver.
Interestingly, in his book "Degrees
in Violence", David Blair chronicles a similar failure by Tsvangirai
back in 2000, recalling that Tsvangirai had promised in public,
16 times, that mass action would be launched in order to have ousted
Mugabe by Christmas 2000. Yet, says the author, "Nothing happened.
Absolutely nothing. To coin a phrase, Tsvangirai missed this historic
opportunity and betrayed the people". He continues:
"Yet by raising expectations
only for them to be dashed, Tsvangirai damaged his credibility.
Why did he make pledges which he had no intention of keeping? ….I
will never know. I am forced to the conclusion that he didn’t mean
a word of it and spoke only for effect. In other words, Tsvangirai
was in the business of cheap posturing, while his country fell apart".
The real danger of raising the expectations
of people, by promising mass action and "winters of discontent",
is that if one does not fulfill one’s promises the resultant dashing
of expectations actually disempowers people and strengthens the
regime. Failed promises disillusion the people because they lose
faith in their leaders. Conversely despotic regimes are greatly
encouraged when publicly announced plans of mass action do not materialize.
All in all it is better to say nothing at all than to announce plans
to engage the regime that one has no real intention of fulfilling.
To be fair to Tsvangirai and his team,
there are very real obstacles which stand in the way of successful
implementation of mass action, such as extremely limited media coverage
of the opposition; oppressive legislation such as POSA (Public
Order and Security Act) and AIPPA (Access
to Information and Protection of Privacy Act) all designed to
hamper dissemination of information to the masses; and an apathetic
and complicit South Africa who, for reasons best known to themselves,
have consistently failed to denounce the Mugabe regime or to support
the alternatives.
Equally, there are risks involved in
mass action and street protests. No one who has lived in Robert
Mugabe’s Zimbabwe for any length of time is unaware of them. The
regime has the full force of the police, army, CIO and youth militia
at its disposal (all funded by the taxpayer, we would point out).
It has not hesitated in the past to bring them out to violently
suppress any public dissent; it will not hesitate in the future.
However, the fact remains that Tsvangirai
has promised, time and again, yet failed to deliver.
What is it, then, that is needed
to rectify the situation? What is needed to successfully implement
peaceful mass action and depose the ZANU PF regime?
Firstly, competent and brave leadership
is required, a leadership that can channel the anger and frustration
of the people into pressure on Mugabe to step down. The MDC lost
their moment (once again) after the stolen March 2005 General Elections,
when an angry populace was ready to go onto the streets, waiting
only for a leadership brave enough to stand in front of the crowd
and lead. Tsvangirai and those in leadership with him have described
themselves as "the Liberation team" but they have still
much to prove in this regard and quite frankly that term is presumptuous
at this stage – they still have much to do before they deserve that
appellation. Whilst the leadership shown last Friday is welcome,
a 400 meter dash to Parliament, catching the Police by surprise,
must be seen for what it is – a tentative start. It will take determined
leadership that is consistently and repeatedly prepared to go out
in the face of riot police and the army for the people of Zimbabwe
to be truly inspired.
Secondly, the mass action needs to
be planned and executed by a team which is secretive and confidential,
not infiltrated by the CIO and Zanu PF cadres, and which can competently
strategize so as to present a plan to the people with perfect timing,
just before the event. The so-called "final push" of June
2003 failed in this respect: at this stage, the MDC was already
infiltrated, and so much media hype was generated by the party that
the Mugabe regime went into full swing to help ensure that the week-long
mass stayaways were only half-hearted at most.
Next, the organisers of mass action
need to be absolutely committed to the principle of using democratic
and non-violent means, unlike Tsvangirai’s infamous (and possibly
unmeant) declaration in September 2002 that "What we say to
Mugabe is ‘Please go peacefully. If you don’t want to go peacefully,
we will remove you violently’." For so long as people fear
that there are agent provocateurs helping organize mass action (who
may well incite violence in the course of any mass action) peace
loving Zimbabweans will remain hesitant about joining a programme
of mass action en masse.
Financial resources are also needed,
as is consensus with other organisations, such as the National
Constitutional Assembly (the NCA), trade unions, churches, WOZA
(Women
of Zimbabwe Arise) and the like. It also requires consensus
between the two factions of the opposition MDC. It is simply farcical
to think that either faction can organise a national programme of
mass action without the involvement of the other. Zimbabwe is much
bigger than either Harare or Bulawayo.
Very few leaders appear present in
Zimbabwe today, who can meet these prerequisites.
In fact, the only groups who have successfully
organised mass action and street protests, are the churches, WOZA
and the NCA.
The churches in Bulawayo peacefully
marched on Good Friday of 2005, and again in mid 2006 to commemorate
the suffering caused by Operation
Murambatsvina. WOZA women regularly organize events such as
handing out roses on Valentine’s Day, marches from Bulawayo to Harare,
or demonstrations outside the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe; their bravery
frequently leads to arrests, police brutality, and being locked
up in police cells – yet they do it again and again. And the NCA
equally has shown itself relatively fearless in confronting the
regime by street demonstrations and marches.
The International Crisis Group’s August
2006 report, "Zimbabwe:
An Opposition Strategy", draws a number of these themes
together. It calls on the international community, long frustrated
at its inability to influence the crisis, to assist, especially
by tightening targeted sanctions. It also calls on South Africa,
Zimbabwe’s nearest neighbour and regional powerhouse, to offer mediation
services.
The way forward, as the International
Crisis Group sees it, is:
"A decentralised campaign of
non-violent resistance, at many places around the country and
focused on bread and butter demands, could have more promise because
it would be harder to infiltrate and disrupt and might force the
government to decide between starting a process of piecemeal concessions
or relying on less trusted men as the security forces were stretched.
Ultimately, stalemate in Zimbabwe is most likely to be broken
by domestic resistance of one kind or another. With conditions
becoming so dire, no one can discount a spontaneous revolt like
the 1998 food riots. But it is incumbent on the MDC and civil
society to try to manage the birth of a new dynamic that would
also energise the international community."
Now is the time for our leaders to
show themselves to be brave men and women of action. Promises made
should be fulfilled. Those who are unable or unwilling to deliver
on their promises should step down to make way for others who can.
For the sake of the people of Zimbabwe, we need leaders who can
work to dislodge this dictatorship using all the non-violent and
democratic means at their disposal.
We can but hope that the failed promise
of a winter of discontent may yet, as Shakespeare wrote, be made
"a glorious summer". We look forward to that day when
we all meet on the streets to say "Enough is enough; Zvakwana;
Sokwanele!"
Visit the Sokwanele
fact
sheet
Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.
TOP
|
