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The mediation that never was
Moyiga Nduru, Inter Press Service (IPS)
July 04, 2006

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33854

JOHANNESBURG - While U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan's stillborn effort to mediate in the Zimbabwean crisis may have made headlines this week, it came as no surprise to political observer Brian Raftopoulos.

"Kofi Annan is a lame duck. (Zimbabwean President Robert) Mugabe knows that his term in office ends at the end of this year," he told IPS, Tuesday, in South Africa's commercial centre of Johannesburg.

Formerly a professor of political science at the University of Zimbabwe, Raftopoulos is based at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation in the South African coastal city of Cape Town; this non-governmental organisation seeks to use South Africa's experiences in assisting countries which are making the transition to democracy.

He was in Johannesburg to participate in a discussion titled 'Zimbabwe: A Political and Economic Stocktake' that was organised by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), a think-tank at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Annan held talks with Mugabe in the course of the bi-annual African Union summit, held Jun. 25 to Jul. 2 in the West African nation of The Gambia; he announced afterwards that he would no longer be travelling to Zimbabwe to help address the country's political and economic problems.

The U.N. head said Mugabe had informed him that former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa was already mediating, albeit between Zimbabwe and former colonial ruler Britain, rather than between Zimbabwe's government and beleaguered opposition.

The Zimbabwean leader regularly blames his country's ills on Britain. London stands accused of meddling in Zimbabwe in response to the occupations of white-owned farms that began in 2000 -- billed as an effort to correct racial imbalances in land ownership that were instituted under colonialism.

While some have questioned the focus of Mkapa's mediation, others query his ability to intervene with impartiality.

"Mkapa is an ally of Mugabe. He will not be an effective mediator but an effective messenger of Mugabe internationally," noted Raftopoulos.

The farm seizures in Zimbabwe are often blamed for the country's precipitous economic decline, although Mugabe claims the economy has been sabotaged by those who oppose his government, locally and abroad.

"Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest shrinking in the world. Its GDP (gross domestic product) declined by 40 percent in the past decade. Two-thirds of the population lives on less than one dollar a day. Inflation is over 1,000 percent," said Raftopoulos. Millions of Zimbabweans -- including those with desperately needed skills -- have fled the country because of financial hardship or political persecution.

However, Diana Games, director of Africa@Work, a Johannesburg-based research and publishing company, told the SAIIA gathering that there were warning signs about economic mismanagement in Zimbabwe before the farm occupations.

She cited the unbudgeted payout to veterans of the 1970s liberation war in 1997 -- and the decision to send 10,000 soldiers to the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1998 to support then President Laurent Kabila, in the face of a rebellion backed by Rwanda and Uganda.

"Zimbabwean companies have expanded into the region, particularly to Zambia, as a way to cope with the situation. Currently companies are operating at 20 or 30 percent below capacity due to a range of problems such as lack of foreign currency and fuel," said Games, who has also published a booklet on the operations of South African companies in Zimbabwe.

'A Nation in Turmoil: The Experience of South African Firms in Zimbabwe' was launched at SAIIA on Tuesday.

South Africa's policy of quiet diplomacy towards Zimbabwe has come under fire, with critics saying it has been ineffective. Games doesn't believe matters will improve: "I don't think South Africa's diplomacy is going to work."

But in the event of moves to engage Zimbabwe's opposition, Pretoria would have difficulty in deciding who to consult, an official from the Department of Foreign Affairs told IPS. "The MDC has split in two. Which faction should South Africa talk to?" he asked.

A group led by Arthur Mutambara left the MDC (the Movement for Democratic Change), Zimbabwe's main opposition party, in June last year. The other camp continues to be led by Morgan Tsvangirai, who has been at helm of the MDC since it was founded in 1999.

The party presented the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), in power since 1980, with its first serious electoral challenge during parliamentary polls held in 2000. While ZANU-PF won the 2000 election, its victory was marred by allegations of vote-rigging and widespread human rights abuses directed against opposition supporters. Similar claims were made about the presidential election of 2002.

But, although democracy has been severely undermined in Zimbabwe, Raftopoulos does not believe that the country's people are about to resort to a popular uprising.

"It's unlikely to happen in the near future. If it happens, it will lead to a bloodbath and repression by the state," he said.

"This will mean greater suffering for the people of Zimbabwe. It will mean greater problems for the region." (END/2006)

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