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After
Mugabe: Applying post-conflict recovery lessons to Zimbabwe
Todd Moss and Stewart Patrick
Extracted from Africa Policy Journal – Spring 2006, Volume 1
May, 2006
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/kssgorg/apj/issues/2006_issue/moss.htm
Zimbabwe
is a country in deep economic and political crisis, but also one
whose situation could change quickly. Waiting until the day after
the fall of Robert Mugabe could be too late, so the international
community should start preliminary planning now for responses to
a transition in Zimbabwe. Given the war-like trauma experienced
by the country and acute conditions today, any donor strategy cannot
be limited to traditional development practice but must be informed
by recent post-conflict experiences. This paper lays out a framework
for an international effort and identifies priority actions to support
a political transition and economic recovery. It also suggests some
immediate steps that the US and other donors can take, including
the formation of a Commission for Assistance to a Free Zimbabwe.
Beginning the planning process now is not only prudent, but such
a public effort could also be catalytic: letting the Zimbabwean
people know they have not been forgotten and that the world stands
ready to help once Robert Mugabe is gone could perhaps help to bring
about that day a little sooner.
1. Introduction
It is not too early to start planning for a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe.
The southern African country is in a perilous state of decline and
could face a major transition at any time. The government, led since
independence in 1980 by President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African
National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), appears impervious to international
pressure to reform or even moderate political repression and disastrous
economic policies. Zimbabwe is now an international pariah, having
quit the Commonwealth, nearly been expelled from the International
Monetary Fund, and listed by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
as an ‘outpost of tyranny’ alongside the likes of Burma and North
Korea. It is also clear that the situation inside the country is both
extremely fragile and ultimately unsustainable: tensions are high,
there are serious divisions within the ruling party and the military,
and the economy is dangerously close to outright collapse. Importantly,
this precarious state of affairs is being held together mainly by
Mugabe himself. Although resilient and politically cunning, he is
nonetheless 82 years old.
Once Mugabe is gone, the reality of his misrule will be immediately
faced by a new government. Several post-Mugabe scenarios are possible,
including a transition to a handpicked successor, the rise of a reformist
faction within ZANU-PF, a broad government of national unity, a military
coup, or even a descent into chaos. It is of course impossible to
predict the outcome. What is likely is that the change will come without
much warning and that a speedy and substantial international response
will be necessary. Without presuming any particular configuration,
this paper assumes that the next government is reform-minded enough
that it seeks a genuine normalization of external relations and that
the new leadership is sufficiently distanced from Mugabe and his cronies
that the international community is willing to respond in kind.
However the transition unfolds, the United States and the international
community should avoid getting caught flat-footed. As in post-conflict
situations, Mugabe’s departure will create a brief "golden hour,"
a fluid situation in which expectations are high and multiple possibilities
quickly emerge. The international community can exploit this window
of opportunity through targeted interventions to help set Zimbabwe
on the right path to sustainable peace and recovery. Once this window
closes, the odds of making a difference will become much longer.
Based on these assumptions,
this paper argues that (1) the international community should start
preliminary planning now for possible responses to a transition
in Zimbabwe because (as with Cuba) waiting until the day after the
fall of the dictator could be too late, and (2) given the acute
conditions in Zimbabwe today, this response cannot be limited to
traditional development practice but must be informed by recent
post-conflict experiences. While Zimbabwe presents unique challenges
of its own, the lessons learned from war-torn countries like Afghanistan,
Bosnia, East Timor, El Salvador, Liberia, and Mozambique can be
instructive in thinking about how to respond to a post-Mugabe era.
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