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Dictator's grip is tightened by weak protest
David Blair, Telegraph (UK)
July 27, 2005

http://www.opinion.telegraph.co.uk/

When Robert Mugabe's beleaguered opponents initially set out to break his stranglehold on Zimbabwe, the joyful defiance of their first rally left an indelible impression on every witness.

My mind's eye holds a vivid picture of the Movement for Democratic Change's inaugural gathering held almost six years ago. A jubilant crowd of 15,000 packed the terraces of Rufaro stadium in Harare, roaring their support for Morgan Tsvangirai, the party's founding leader.

They subjected a huge billboard bearing the President's portrait to numerous indignities. First, a trade union banner was draped over the old dictator's eyes and nose, then youths tore away the lower panels, depriving Mr Mugabe of his left cheek.

Grinning street urchins arrived at the stadium carrying a squawking cockerel - the symbol of the ruling Zanu-PF party - and proceeded to boot the poor bird around the football field.

"We have not come here to launch an opposition," declared Mr Tsvangirai, whose office wall displayed a cartoon of himself carving up a cockerel. "We have come to ensure that the MDC is the next government."

At that moment, I almost believed him. It seemed that Zimbabweans had finally summoned the will to cast off a leader who had only brought them poverty and repression.

What happened next appeared to vindicate my optimism for the future. Only nine months after that rally, Mr Tsvangirai won 57 seats in parliament, having built the MDC from scratch into the most powerful opposition force in Zimbabwe's history and one of the most significant popular movements in Africa.

In the aftermath of that election in June 2000, when the MDC swept all 19 seats in Harare, the capital felt like a liberated city. People almost forgot that Mr Mugabe was still in power. I, like many, was elated. The quiet, insistent voices of elderly Zimbabwean sceptics were intensely irritating.

Today, I curse my optimism. I wish I had listened to those who offered the wise prediction that Mr Mugabe's determination to hold on to power would prove vastly greater than his opponents' resolve to oust him.

For with every day that passes, it becomes glaringly obvious that the MDC has given up any hope of ridding Zimbabwe of Mr Mugabe. The opposition's political strategy appears to be nothing more sophisticated than waiting for the 81-year-old dictator to die or retire.

Meanwhile, the party is paralysed and drifting under Mr Tsvangirai's vacillating, ineffectual leadership. Internecine rivalry has broken out.

The MDC's members have taken to assaulting one another inside the party's Harare headquarters. One MDC official has fled to South Africa after his colleagues tried to kill him.

Mr Tsvangirai apparently believes that Welshman Ncube, his secretary-general, is plotting to seize the throne. Never mind that Mr Ncube denies any manoeuvring, this internal challenge - perhaps an imaginary one - seems uppermost in the MDC leader's mind.

Hence Mr Mugabe gets away with one outrage after another. His unceasing excesses cause storms of protest abroad - but precious little dissent at home. Since May, his bulldozers have ravaged Zimbabwe's townships, wrecking the homes or livelihoods of 700,000 people and harming another 2.4 million, according to a United Nations report.

Mr Mugabe has casually ruined the lives of one quarter of all Zimbabweans - in the last eight weeks alone. He has done this with barely a whimper from Mr Tsvangirai or the MDC.

Waging factional battles seems far more important to Mr Tsvangirai than actually opposing the regime, which is, after all, what opposition leaders are paid to do. So Mr Mugabe's assault on the urban poor has passed without the MDC organising even a single demonstration or protest.

In fairness, there has been little spontaneous discontent. A few stones were thrown at police during the urban demolitions and street battles briefly erupted in towns such as Chitungwiza. But many Zimbabweans meekly submitted to the destruction of their homes and livelihoods.

Any outsider with goodwill towards this beautiful country is led towards some profoundly disturbing conclusions. The entire Zimbabwean nation seems to have given up opposing Mr Mugabe. Put bluntly, they are waiting for God to remove him. The MDC's failure to offer any protest or resistance reflects the popular mood.

But if 12 million Zimbabweans have no will to rid themselves of a dictator, why should anyone else help? Perhaps Zimbabweans deserve the most damning verdict of all - that they have the leader they deserve.

I hasten to add that I do not believe this. But looking at the country's recent history, I find it hard to listen to Zimbabweans who blame the outside world for failing to help. They have done precious little to help themselves and Mr Tsvangirai seems most adept at machine-gunning himself in both feet.

Let me select a few examples of his disastrous judgment. As long ago as September 2000, Mr Tsvangirai announced that he would remove Mr Mugabe with a "mass action" campaign of strikes and demonstrations. The president would, he pledged, be gone by Christmas.

Mr Tsvangirai made this promise in a series of rallies and interviews. He proceeded to do absolutely nothing.

Then Mr Tsvangirai somehow convinced himself that he was going to win the 2002 presidential poll, despite the regime using every conceivable trick to stitch up the contest. When Mr Tsvangirai was duly declared the loser, he branded the contest "daylight robbery" and proceeded to do, well, nothing.

This year, the same dismal scenario repeated itself. Mr Mugabe held a rigged parliamentary election and Mr Tsvangirai, having said that he would boycott the poll, inexplicably chose to contest it anyway. The MDC lost 16 seats. Mr Tsvangirai declared the election unfair and proceeded to do, well, nothing.

In a recent interview, he gave a revealing explanation for why he has not attempted to lead any street protests. "You can't have the leaders on the streets when nobody is there behind them," he said.

So the people and the opposition are united in having no inclination to remove their despotic leader. Their beautiful country drifts on into disaster - and there is nothing they are willing to do.

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