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Fiddling while Zimbabwe burns
Institute for Security Studies
by Chris Maroleng, African Security Analysis Programme
October 13, 2003

Mugabe's great escape
Most analysts agree that should Mugabe decide to step down he would seek an exit strategy that would allow him to retire reasonably soon without fear of prosecution and that would provide him with protection from revenge by some of the enemies that he has made over the past two decades. This exit strategy ideally would require a successor to the presidential seat whom Mugabe can trust and who has a relatively constant history of loyalty to him. The successor would also have to have the capacity to provide the protection that Mugabe requires and would have to be considered politically astute enough to remain in power long after Mugabe has left the stage. Finally, this successor would preferably come from the dominant Zezuru ethnic group, as ethno-linguistic considerations seem to play an important part in Zimbabwean politics. Currently, there seem to be two ZANU PF strong men who lead the pack in the race to succeed Mugabe: Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa andDefence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi.

The potential successor who possesses most of these qualities, and who has over the years become a close confidant to Mugabe is, undoubtedly, Emmerson Mnangagwa. However, the fact that he is not a Zezuru could seriously affect his chances. This is because should he succeed Mugabe to the presidency, this would shift the balance of power within the ZANU PF in favour of the Muzenda-Karanga group, particularly if we consider that yet another member of this group, Stan Mudenge, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs is considered a most likely candidate to fill the post of Vice President. The fact that the current commander of the ZDF, General Vitalis Zvinavashe, is also a Karanga should further indicate why such an outcome would be unacceptable to certain elements in ZANU PF. The Zezuru camp would essentially find itself excluded from the executive presidency for the first time since independence.

The Zezuru camp led by Mujuru would much prefer to see its own man, Sidney Sekeramayi, take the top spot in any post-Mugabe government, as this would act as a counterbalance to the growing strength of the Muzenda Karanga group. It is widely believed that the faction led by Mujuru may succeed in placing its man in the office of the President, since Mujuru is believed to enjoy the important support of the much-feared Central Intelligence Organisation and the ZDF, through his close association with members of these institutions, particularly current Air Force Commander and former Commander of the notorious 5th Brigade, Air Marshal Perence Shiri. The opposition that Mnangagwa's is expected to encounter from within the Karanga group led by Zvobgo may further reduce his chances.

The MDC and ZANU PF: Talks about
Meanwhile there have been contradictory reports on the state of the relationship between the MDC and ZANU PF and how far the informal 'behind-the-scenes' talks have gone in bridging the political divide that separates both parties. To most observers, a negotiated settlement between the two main political parties presents the best way of moving Zimbabwe on from the stalemate in which it currently finds itself. As pointed out by the International Crisis Group, "the overwhelming priority must be to get talks started in order to avert a further meltdown in Zimbabwe". Indeed, negotiations are the only way out of the impasse that otherwise promises to become increasingly violent and destructive. Moreover, recent reconciliatory comments made by Mugabe- particularly his remark at the burial of Vice President Muzenda- seem to indicate that the Zimbabwean President may be ready for talks with the MDC, whose leadership he referred to as "fellow sons of the soil together".

However, several of ZANU PF's internal dynamics discussed above may stand in the way of a negotiated change. Intra-party factionalism and competition for leadership, as well as the need for party reform may hamper any attempts at a meaningful dialogue with the MDC. In fact, until ZANU PF's internal issues are addressed, the likelihood for real change through negotiation is, at best, slim and realistically improbable. Therefore, if the leaders of ZANU PF are truly concerned about extricating their country from the political and economic quagmire and not solely concerned with amassing personal power and wealth, they must act to resolve the leadership question swiftly so that they can begin wholehearted negotiations with the opposition.

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