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Fiddling while Zimbabwe burns
Institute for Security Studies
by Chris Maroleng, African Security Analysis Programme
October 13, 2003

The succession stakes
Since the death of Vice President Muzenda, John Nkomo (ZANU PF's National Chairman and Minister of Special Affairs), who now ranks third after President Mugabe and Vice President Joseph Msika, has been acting as Vice President. Although John Nkomo would appear to be next in line for the vice presidency, the National Unity Accord signed between formerly hostile national liberation movements ZANU PF and PF ZAPU in 1987 prevents Nkomo from taking the vice presidency, since the former PF ZAPU already has a representative on the presidium in the form of Msika. Moreover, when the two belligerents signed the National Unity Accord in the wake of the protracted low-intensity civil war in Zimbabwe, a convention emerged that the two Vice Presidents should come from the two wings of the party. This was seen as a means of creating a political balance of power between the Shona and Ndebele groups, from which ZANU PF and PF ZAPU derived, respectively, most of their support.

Zimbabwe's Unity Accord, described by some as an agreement which saw the assimilation of the "vanquished" into ZANU PF, resulted in the late PF ZAPU leader, Joshua Nkomo occupying the vice presidency alongside Mugabe's long-time lieutenant, Muzenda. In fact, the death of Joshua Nkomo in 1999 did not derail the 1987 convention as his deputy from the former PF ZAPU, Joseph Msika, replaced him as the party and government's second vicepresident. However, Muzenda's death, coming as it has in the thick of intense jostling among ZANU PF stalwarts, has thrown up several obstacles in the race to fill posts in the executive office. Largely propelled by Mugabe's decision to allow for an intra-party succession debate, ZANU PF is now the stage of intense elbowing, with factions competing with one another for power and influence, sometimes split along ethno-linguistic and provincial lines.

ZANU PF's internal rifts The dominant faction within ZANU PF is, of course, that currently led by President Robert Mugabe. It draws its core following from the Zezuru ethno-linguistic group, one of the principal Chishona-speaking groups. Other leaders of this group include political heavyweights such as retired Lieutenant-General Tapfumanei Solomon Mujuru (nom de guerre: Rex Nhongo) who is considered by many to be a potential kingmaker because of his extensive connections in the political, security and commercial sectors of Zimbabwe. Though often underestimated because of his ability to avoid the limelight, Mujuru is a force to be reckoned with. Another important player in the Zezuru faction is Dr Sydney Sekeramayi, who currently holds the post of Minister of Defence in the Cabinet. In fact, Sekeramayi is seen by some as a strong presidential contender partly because of his powerful voice in ZANU PF's upper echelons, but mainly because of his strong connection to Mujuru. Most analysts predict that the latter would support Sekeramayi in a race for succession to the presidency.

However, for many in the ZANU PF's Zezuru alliance, the Karanga group (yet another of the Chishona ethno-linguistic groups) represents a threatening force. This is particularly true of one of the Karanga factions (there are two such factions), that led by Dr Eddison Zvobgo, who currently faces a ZANU PF disciplinary hearing for allegedly de-campaigning President Robert Mugabe in the March 2002 presidential election. Within this faction, retired Air Marshal Josiah Tungamirai, who challenged the late Vice President Muzenda for the nomination of the Gutu North constituency during the 1995 election, most closely supports Zvobgo. The death of Muzenda, who helped to quell division in the fractious Karanga group and Masvingo province, has meant that the hard fought power struggles in this volatile province are set to re-ignite unless the vacuum left by Muzenda in Masvingo is filled quickly.

In this regard, there is widespread speculation that the sixty-year-old commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Force (ZDF), General Vitalis Zvinavashe, who was a senior member of the late Vice President's camp, could retire in December this year to concentrate on his new political career as the leader of the divided Masvingo province. There are, however, doubts about whether Zvinavashe has what it takes to unify ZANU PF in the province and dislodge the opposition MDC from Masvingo urban. Although it is President Mugabe's desire to have his ally at the hub of politics in Masvingo, highly placed sources within ZANU PF say Zvinavashe would be likely to meet stiff resistance from the faction led by Zvogbo and Tungamirai.

The other Karanga faction, closely aligned with Mugabe's Zezuru group, was led by the late Vice President Simon Muzenda and his protégé and distant cousin Josaya Hungwe- the Governor of Masvingo. Muzenda's death has left a void in this group, which relied heavily on the political clout of the deceased veteran strategist. Also a key member of the Muzenda- Karanga group is Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is thought to be a key contender for presidential succession because of his track record as Security Minister and the high esteem in which President Mugabe holds him. However, should Mugabe choose Mnangagwa (known in Zimbabwe as "the son of God" because of his close relationship to Mugabe) the ruling party's delicate pecking order could be destablised because Mnangagwa would become John Nkomo's senior, when Nkomo defeated Mnangagwa in the race for the chairmanship during the party's congress in 1999. .

Over the years the late Muzenda and Zvobgo clashed over the leadership of the southern province of Masvingo. Muzenda was said to be determined to ensure that Mnangagwa took over his place when he retired from the vice-presidential seat. This was primarily because Mnangagwa's succession would keep long-time rival Zvobgo out of the political center and simultaneously destroy the latter's chances of succeeding Mugabe. During a speech at the wake at Muzenda's home in rural Gutu, Mugabe indicated that he was acutely aware of the implications for the ruling party of a permanent split in Masvingo, when he revealed that "his party's political support could fall apart and lose its age-old stranglehold in the province to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) because of Muzenda's death". "Why should we let the symbol of our nationhood, the Great Zimbabwe, slip from our grip?" he pleaded with mourners gathered to pay their last respects to his deputy. In fact, this scenario would easily become a reality if Zvobgo and members of his faction were to play "the high stakes" game once more and try to take advantage of the void created by Muzenda's death to reclaim their dominance of the province.

The different ZANU PF factions who are loosely split along ethno-linguistic lines are graphically represented in Figure 1:

Fig. 1. ZANU PF factions

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