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Fiddling
while Zimbabwe burns
Institute
for Security Studies
by Chris Maroleng, African Security Analysis Programme
October 13, 2003
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Introduction
The death on 20 September 2003 of eighty-one-year-old Vice President
Simon Vengesayi Muzenda- staunch ally of Mugabe and veteran nationalist-
has intensified the battle about who will succeed President Robert
Mugabe. It has emerged that the Vice President's death has prompted
the various factions in the ruling party to begin vying with each
other for the vacant second-vice-presidential post. It is widely
believed that the appointment of the new Vice President will indicate
who Mugabe prefers as his successor in the party and the government.
It is possible that Muzenda's death has meant that Mugabe in particular
and ZANU PF in general have had to consider seriously the question
of succession sooner than expected - a situation that "could
prematurely end the heated succession debate by giving glimpses
into the candidate President Mugabe would want to occupy the most
powerful office when he retires." More ominous for the ruling
party is the fact that Muzenda's death has left a power vacuum in
the deeply divided and province of Masvingo, where the veteran politician
acted as a stabilising force, ensuring that infighting did not get
out of hand. A permanent split in this key province would inevitably
result in serious costs to the governing party. Muzenda's death
has increased the likelihood of the party splitting in this important
province, as the two competing factions contest the vacant leadership
of Masvingo.
Judging by recent
statements by Mugabe which indicate his intention to retire, many
observers speculate that the President- aged 79 and the ruler of
Zimbabwe for 23 years- plans to step down from office well before
his six-year term ends in 2008. However, the aging Head of State
is an astute political strategist and will act very cautiously when
he appoints a new Vice President because he will not want to reveal
who his chosen successor is too early in the game, as this could
expose the successor to challenges from other rivals within the
ruling party. Some analysts have concluded that a reluctance to
reveal his choice of successor and contradict his call for open
debate on the succession issue means that the President will not
fill the vacant vice-presidential post too soon. Fortunately for
President Mugabe, the constitution places no obligation on him to
appoint a Vice President to replace the late Simon Muzenda. Even
though "the constitutional provision may yet prove a much-needed
safety valve for Mugabe to stave off a fierce behind-the-scenes
succession battle within the ruling party, and one that has taken
on an ethnic hue", conjecture still surrounds the question
of who the top contenders are in the battle to fill the Vice President's
position and, ultimately, to succeed President Mugabe.
Conclusion
While the politicians fiddle around as the flames that engulf Zimbabwe
grow in intensity, the glaring reality of Zimbabwe's economic collapse
is there for all to see. The economic gains and expanding social
services of the 1980s have been thrown into reverse. According to
Zimbabwean economist John Robertson, the economy has shrunk by over
19% over the past year, and the gulf widens daily between the official
exchange rate (Zim $860 to US $1*) and the parallel market (Zim
$5,800 to US $1*). The effect of these factors together with the
5 acceleration of company closures, and the worsening of countrywide
fuel shortages clearly indicate that Zimbabwe's economy is now in
"a shambolic state from which recovery will be arduous if not
impossible. Inflation is high enough (about 450%) to have no real
meaning. The Reserve Bank cannot keep up with the volume of cash
as a result of price hikes. Bread sells for more than Zim $1000
a loaf, and beef and maize for Zim $3000 and Zim $300 a kilo respectively.
When available, fuel sells on the black-market for Zim $1200 to
Zim $1500 a litre."
The Zimbabwean
government's ill-executed agrarian reform programme has as yet been
unable to create a new self-sufficient class of successful small-scale
farmers to fill the
vacuum left by evicted white farmers. The controversial land grab
has also resulted in the
undermining of commercial farming in the country, which- in the
past- was the bedrock of the economy. Production estimates for key
crops for 2004 are forecast to be sharply down, which has also affected
Zimbabwe's formerly robust agro-manufacturing industry. The prevailing
drought conditions in Zimbabwe forecasted to endure well into the
next agricultural season, together with the negative effects of
the land redistribution programme, have resulted in a severe food
crisis. What is more, the government's search for new financiers
has failed to be a match for frozen donor aid and lost foreign exchange.
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