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Zimbabwe's
election: the stakes for Southern Africa
International
Crisis Group (ICG)
January 11, 2002
VI.
Conclusion
If Zimbabwe is the
fulcrum upon which the future of southern Africa rests, then President
Mbeki has an obligation to acknowledge that his quiet diplomacy has not
worked and mobilise SADC to lean heavily on Mugabe, who has violated pledges
of good governance, the rule of law, human rights, and democracy made
directly to SADC. If the region does not exert meaningful pressure, it
will show a lack of political will to make NEPAD and the African Renaissance
realities. South Africa, with an economy twenty times that of Zimbabwe,
cannot support the mass flow of refugees and economic devastation that
further instability in Zimbabwe will likely cause. The other countries
of the region, which would feel the repercussions even more severely,
need South Africa to use its leadership within SADC. Working closely with
like-minded SADC governments, South Africa will have to make important
decisions about whether to design incentives and pressures, connected
to clear timelines and coordinated to the extent feasible with extra-regional
measures. If such a package is to be deployed, as ICG strongly believes
it should, this needs to happen quickly in view of the gravity of the
Zimbabwe crisis and the imminence of its election. To be credible, it
will need an accompanying message that if the elections are stolen, there
will be severe repercussions. In sum, South Africa faces the challenge
of developing a regional consensus on setting out specific conditions
for recognition of a legitimate election, establishing the penalties for
not achieving those conditions, and taking initial steps that demonstrate
credible intent. Only then will President Mugabe take SADC seriously and
perhaps reverse his disastrous course.
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