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Zim's birth rate falls
The Herald (Zimbabwe)
August 22, 2005

http://www.herald.co.zw/index.php?id=46183&pubdate=2005-08-22

ZIMBABWE’S fertility rate — at 3,6 children per woman in the 1992 census — is roughly half the rate seen at independence and seems set to continue dropping further towards the replacement levels of an average of a little over two children born to each woman.

In its national report of the 2002 census published on Friday, the Central Statistical Office found the population of Zimbabwe on census day was 11 631 657 people, very close to the initial figure of 11 634 663 published in December 2002.

The rate of natural increase in the year before census day in August 2002 was 1,3 percent.

This rate excludes the effects of migration, in or out of Zimbabwe, and is based purely on the difference between crude birth rates and death rates.

The dramatic drop in the population growth rate is largely due to the drop in birth rates rather than a rise in death rates.

Although there has been a rise since the mid-1980s, from around 11 to 17,2 deaths per 1 000 people a year, for two reasons: a higher percentage of older people and the HIV pandemic.

Fertility rates in Zimbabwe were close to eight children per woman in the 1960s and had dropped marginally to around seven by independence and then started falling fast, to 5,4 by the early 1990s and to 3,6 by 2002, in the last census.

The major reason for this drop is seen as a result of measures taken soon after independence to ensure all children, including all girls, had access to a full education coupled with the development of a wide and effective primary health care network.

These two requirements, plus giving women legal equality, have been found around the world to be the precursors to drops in birth rates.

Zimbabwe was a pioneer in Africa of all three.

The census found only 11 percent of those aged three to 24 had never been to school, but as three quarters of these unschooled were under six, the actual percentage of children of school going age who never go to school is probably nearer 4 percent.

Two thirds of those in this 3-24 age group were still at school or pre-school.

The latest census appears to back up the proposition that the more educated a woman is, the more likely she is to have a smaller family.

While women, who had no education or only primary education had a fertility rate of four or more, those with secondary education had a rate of around three children.

The falling fertility rate has seen the proportion of the population under 15 fall from around half to just over 40 percent with the median age of the population now around 18 years.

The productive age groups, roughly those aged between 20 and 64, has risen to around 42,5 percent, with 53,5 percent younger and less than 4 percent over 65.

Women still form the majority of all age groups except children under five.

There were 5 634 180 males and 5 997 477 females in the total population.

More baby boys than girls are hit by infant mortality and women tend to live longer.

The Zimbabwean population still has a large rural majority but the urban population has risen to 35 percent of the total with Harare Province — Harare City, Chitungwiza and Epworth — holding more than 60 percent of Zimbabwe’s urban population and 20 percent of the total population. Ethnic minorities and resident foreigners were negligible percentages of the population 22 years after independence.

People of African origin formed, in 2002, 99,28 percent of the population.

There were just 46 743 whites, just over half the 1992 total and well under a fifth of the colonial white population.

There were 11 492 Asians.

Between them the whites and Asians form 0,5 percent of the population.

The white population, as expected, was found to be relatively elderly.

There were 9 713 whites aged 65 and over but only 8 997 aged under 15, suggesting there were only 8 000 whites of school-going age in 2002 (whites aged five to 18).

The number of people described as of mixed race has risen to 22 176, more than a third of them under 15, suggesting more interracial marriages than a rapid growth in the pre-independence mixed-race population.

A total of 99,13 percent of the population listed themselves as Zimbabwe citizens in 2002. Most of the remainder, 0,75 percent of the popualtion, were citizens of other African countries, especially Mozambique and Malawi. European citizens contributed 0,08 percent (with 6 681 British citizens being the largest non-African group) and the rest of the world a paltry 0,04 percent of the population.

Zimbabwe has 2 649 921 households, giving an average of 4,35 people in each household. The average size of a household tends to be lower in urban areas, just 3,82 in Harare for example, and larger in rural areas with Matabeleland South holding the record of and average of 4,81 people in each household.

Activity and labour force focussed on the population aged at least 15 years and this constituted 59 percent of the total population out of these, around 70 percent were in the labour force.

Of those in the labour force, 42 percent were students, 40 percent homemakers and 17 percent were in the retired or sick or too old category. Another 11 percent were unemployed.

Out of those who were employed, the highest proportions (55 percent) were engaged in agriculture related occupations followed by services.

About 61 percent of the population had never married. This large proportion was probably due to the presence of a high percentage of young population.

However, females seemed to have entered into such unions at much younger ages than males.

Around 31 percent of the population were currently married, while about six percent were either divorced or separated or widowed.

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