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Goromonzi - An analysis of Zanu PF after their annual conference?
Sokwanele
February 28,
2007
http://www.sokwanele.com/articles/sokwanele/postgoromonzi_28february2007.html
Now
that the small town of Goromonzi (site of the recent annual conference
of the Zanu PF party) has returned to its normal poverty-stricken
existence - albeit enriched by one kilometre of tarred road from
the main road to the conference site, provided for the occasion
- it is instructive to take another look at the state of the party
responsible for the unprecedented suffering of the people of Zimbabwe.
The
conference had as its theme "Consolidating Independence through
Land, Mining Reforms and Empowerment". A grand title indeed
though, from reports in both the government and independent press,
it is evident that the delegates barely touched on these issues.
Rather, most of the time was taken up with the succession issue
- who will eventually succeed the aging dictator, and when. The
related infighting between the contending factions was as vicious
as it was carefully camouflaged by those who cannot afford to be
seen to be openly bidding for power - or even to question the official
party line that the beloved leader will rule for ever. In short
it was another dazzling display of the "smoke and mirrors"
politics of double-speak and subterfuge for which Zanu PF surely
stands in a class by itself.
Unintended
revelations
As
ever, the press coverage of the conference was revealing - though
often unintentionally so! True to form, the regime's mouthpieces -
The Herald and The Chronicle - reported that "the conference
itself was a huge success", but there was the odd telling remark,
such as the editorial in The Chronicle saying that though "Zanu
PF emerged stronger and united from the conference, a big task lies
ahead to make sure that the resolutions passed at the annual indaba
are implemented". And if that is not a reference to broken promises
and ignored resolutions of the past we ask, what is?
The
independent press concentrated more on the excesses of the conference,
which were many - like the Mercedes-Benz limousines lined up in
the car park, and the bottled water, turkey, lamb, pork, venison,
and other delicacies laid on for delegates. Such conspicuous consumption
contrasted painfully with the surrounding abject poverty and starvation.
To their credit the independent press also picked up on the inconsistencies
in the supposed universal acclamation of 'Bob as President'.
The
big issue
Whatever
was on the official agenda, the one theme that dominated the conference
from start to finish was the succession issue. In an almost unprecedented
sequence of events, it became clear that the party was not uniformly
behind Mugabe's stated intention to continue in the top job, and to
extend his presidential mandate from 2008 to 2010 by way of a proposed
constitutional amendment.
First,
just before the conference, the politburo met but was unable to
agree on whether to support his bid. Then the central committee
of the party turned him down. And finally the 4000-odd delegates
at the conference were unable to come together around any consensus
on either Mugabe's own political future or the future of the party.
There was some political face-saving in evidence when the delegates
were informed at the end of the conference that the question would
be further debated at a provincial level, prior to final decision-making
by the central committee. Nor did it help his cause when Mugabe
himself told journalists at the end of the conference that there
was consensus over the harmonization of the elections. Patently
this was a total distortion of the facts on the ground.
In
reality, for Zanu PF and for Robert Mugabe in particular, this was
a political defeat of the same magnitude as the result of the referendum
on the new constitution in the year 2000, when the electorate served
notice that the days of an effective one party state were over and
henceforth the MDC was a force to be reckoned with in the land.
Mugabe
himself knows that he is at the helm of a seriously fractured party;
he also knows - and it must provide precious little consolation
- that he is in some ways the only glue that holds it together.
Indeed he could well say with the famed Madame de Pompadour (favourite
of Louis XV of France) "apres nous le deluge" ("after
us the deluge"). From the country's perspective, the aging
dictator is at the centre of the ultimate Catch 22: He himself is
the main obstacle in the way of resolving the severe economic crisis,
but because of the lack of consensus on who will succeed him, he
is still needed by his party.
Infighting
within the ranks
The
political infighting that has riven his party was certainly uppermost
in Mugabe's mind before and during the conference. He implored members
of Zanu PF to work together to ensure that they bequeathed a better
future for the coming generations. He said there was need for unity
of purpose within the ruling party. He admitted that "something
has gone wrong", and asked "what are we demonstrating to
the people? That we are still one or divided? Still together or apart?"
"What
are we doing there at the top?" asked the man at the top.
This public rebuke would have smarted in certain quarters. There
are in fact three main contenders for the top job, aside from Mugabe
himself - Gideon Gono, Joice Mujuru, and Emmerson Mnangagwa - and
of course it is they and their surrogates who are stoking up the
fires of division. But there are numerous other quarrels and splits,
at both national and regional levels. Recently for instance we have
been treated to the spectacle of various Zanu PF chefs in court,
one suing the other, a spectacle that formerly would have been unthinkable.
In
the succession issue, the tension between the competing camps is
heightened by the rapidly degenerating economy - all the more so
because the economy is controlled personally by one of the contenders,
Gono - and by the impact of Gono's policies on the personal fortunes
of each.
Gono has been widely (and no doubt rightly) castigated for his irrational
economic policies which have left the markets in bewilderment and
chaos. Certainly both Mujuru and Mnangagwa are personally suffering
from the effects of Gono's own brand of policy-making. However the
man at the top clearly supports him against the Finance Minister,
Murerwa, and that is all that matters in the short term. Mugabe
publicly signaled his own preference when he criticized the "bookish"
economics of the Finance Ministry: "They have this word they
like using; 'quasi, quasi, quasi'", he said, "but I tell
them that this is expenditure that we need. We are under sanctions
and there is no room for the type of bookish economics we have at
the Ministry of Finance", (the "quasi" referring
to the criticism of Gono's 'quasi economic policies' in Murerwa's
recent budget speech).
Changing
the Constitution?
As
far as forcing a change to the constitution to allow presidential
and parliamentary elections to take place together in 2010, thus prolonging
Mugabe's political life for a further two years, Zanu PF is not in
a strong position.
To
amend the constitution, the party requires the votes of two-thirds
of the 150 members of Parliament - a minimum of one hundred actual
votes cast. Currently the MDC holds 41 seats and with Jonathan Moyo,
that gives 42 against Zanu's 108. So the regime will find it tough
to get the full 100 votes that it needs. It only requires 9 disenchanted
Zanu MPs to absent themselves from the vote (with a convenient "sickness"
or "family bereavement", so they can avoid the embarrassment
of publicly voting against the old man) and the motion would be
defeated.
Mugabe
relies heavily upon the uneducated for what little real support
he still enjoys. They provide useful votes from those who are not
themselves involved in business and have little understanding of
what is going on in the country and the economy. However it is very
questionable whether he truly has many other party members behind
him, whatever they might say in public. A successful constitutional
amendment is not therefore a forgone conclusion.
Between
an ailing and failing economy on the one hand and on the other a
leader who has become a huge public liability but is still needed
to save the party from disintegration, Zanu PF finds itself caught
between a rock and a hard place. Moreover Mugabe's personal interest
is now directly at variance with those within the party scrambling
to replace him. The incumbent must secure a further two years in
office beyond 2008; equally those contending for the throne must
have him out of the way by 2008.
Hence
it comes as no surprise to learn that, in an unprecedented move,
Zanu PF MPs have secretly launched a "Stop Mugabe Campaign"
to prevent him from extending his term of office beyond 2008.
The
Role of the Military?
Even
the military and police are now baulking at the ruination of the economy.
Those police constables who were getting only $20 000 at the end of
last year (and even if their salaries doubled, would still be getting
a mere pittance), are unlikely to be on-sides for the regime which
is so obviously responsible for their misery. The military chiefs
met Mugabe towards the end of last year, warning him of the effects
of poverty on the previously unquestioned loyalty of the defence forces.
Chihuri, the Police Commissioner, strove to diffuse matters from the
other end of the lighted taper, by addressing senior police officers
and urging them to remain loyal to Mugabe. But the mere fact that
he considered it necessary to exhort them is an indication of how
tarnished is the great leader's once polished image, and how necessary
it has become to shore up his support by all possible means.
Prognosis and cure
So
what have we learnt about Zanu PF through the circus at Goromonzi
? It has indeed been a most revealing exercise, especially for those
looking in from the outside on the inner machinations of a party without
any single coherent objective or strategy and totally dominated by
the crude politics of seizing and holding power. In a way it is like
observing a patient in the painful, terminal stages of emphysema who
refuses to give up the smoking addiction responsible for his condition.
Observing
the sorry spectacle of Goromonzi 2006, we see a fractured and fractious
party, not only at war with their fellow citizens but now on the
point of open warfare within the ranks. We see a party which has
undoubtedly lost confidence in its own leader, but which still cannot
decide who should replace him. Ironically the old man who has become
the party's (and the country's) major liability is still required
by the party to hold it together for the time being.
Yet
time is not on Zimbabwe's side. While Zanu PF continues to prevaricate
in public and to pursue its own vicious succession struggle in private
the economy moves ever closer to the point at which uncontrolled
forces take over. Already we see an economy in tatters. We see a
legal system which can only pay its witnesses a paltry $5 (a fraction
of 1 US cent!), teachers whose salaries do not even cover the transport
to and from their schools; doctors who earn less than USD 20 per
month (and who are fired for going on strike). And all this in a
nation in which an estimated 3,500 citizens are dying each week
of hunger, malnutrition and AIDS. Without being melodramatic in
any sense we can say that our beloved Zimbabwe is now close to the
end - not as a country, for countries endure whatever tragedies
are played out across their rugged landscapes - but as a civilized
society in which the basic amenities of health-care, education and
housing are provided, the security of its citizens is assured and
the fundamental human rights of all are respected within a legal
and ordered framework. In that sense Zimbabwe is close to the end.
Therefore
if ever there was a moment for a strong, coherent and principled
opposition to emerge to show that there is a saner alternative,
this is it. Which means that the onus is on a divided MDC to reunite
within a wide-ranging coalition of opposition forces - and yes,
for those few remaining reasonable members of Zanu-PF to desert
their disintegrating party and join all those Zimbabweans who genuinely
seek an end to this destructive tyranny and the dawn of a new era
of freedom, justice and peace. To say this is now an urgent necessity
is a considerable understatement.
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